Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man, if the 0z was evidence yesterday was a good old fashioned NAMing, the 6z looks even worse. Radar looks robust upstream, but Hi-Res models show precip. drying up as the day wears on. The HRRR gives some hope for precip moving back in near nightfall, but if that is to be believed I might do just as well hiking up to House Mountain in Knox county to see snow as I would going up to Hensley Settlement. It would be nice if the ampy NAM was at least as optimistic as the HRRR, but many a time I've seen the HRRR make promises it can't keep.

Another thing that makes me pessimistic is that I can't even see the energy on watervapor or IR, even though SPC mesoscale analysis shows it near Oklahoma City. I'm not great at reading satellite imagery, but for a surprise this evening, I'd like to see some sort of vort. starting to crank up.  

Suppressed by a High in April??????  Perhaps we end as we began this winter. 

Not totally ready to write it all off since sometimes precip. will hold together better than modeled, but in a very limited area. 

 

[AMZ8990]

Got some light snow showers pushin through the west side of the state now.  Pretty crazy to see daytime flurries at this time of year!!

[BlunderStorm]

Oh I should have kept my mouth shut the weather models pulled the carpet out from under us big time. By the time this *possible* near non-event is over it may have very well teased 4 sub-forums in the process. It is April though so what are you going to do. If there is some light at the end of the tunnel (if you even want it to snow at this point) it's that I noticed some redevelopment on radar along the KY-VA line seemingly extending into Tennessee about where John is although I wouldn't get my hopes up.

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies show a break towards an eastern ridge by mid-May.  Until then, still a mean trough in the East as modeled by the 46 day Weeklies.  Then, we may see a trend towards at least seasonal or warm in relation to the temperature norms.  Have to admit the cold and rain is even taking its toll on me...and I like that type of weather.  Those 80 degree summer days and warm nights in February seem like a distant mirage.  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is an interesting stat...Here are a couple of mean temp comparisons at TRI.   Through April 8th, April is colder than the February norm.  

February:  49.4

April(through April 8th): 49.2 (edit:  down to 48.4 w/ the April 9 observation.)

Bonus Stat:  TRI did record another trace of snow last week.  That marks the eighth time since March 1st that TRI has recorded a trace or more of snow.

[Moonhowl]

Remarkable that there still no sign of this pattern breaking down any time soon.  We will see if there is some snow flakes flying around early next week.

[Cobalt]

17 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Remarkable that there still no sign of this pattern breaking down any time soon.  We will see if there is some snow flakes flying around early next week.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Regarding TRI...Looking forward to TR, F, and S(70s to near 80) before returning to cold and rainy(highs in the 50s).

[John1122]

Forecast for my area once again calls for snow possible Sunday night and Monday. This could have been one of the all-time winters if we hadn't been in a drought through the heart of it.

[BlunderStorm]

Ok, this has to be the last winter threat...right? It seems like a decent NW flow event at a glance. 

80 and snow! This is my kind of week!

[Carvers Gap]

Excluding the last half week of the modeled time period, the 46 day Weeklies are wall-to-wall BN temps w AN precip over the entire forum area.  Translation: lots of cold rain. Oh happy day.  The one glimmer of hope...the Weeklies can have issues w long term modeling during spring and (edit) fall.  The bad thing...the Weeklies have pretty much nailed the past six weeks.

[kperk014]

SPC AC 131731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED RISK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN IL AND IN...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTH TO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are expected across the lower Mississippi
   Valley and central Gulf Coast States with a threat for damaging
   winds and a few tornadoes, some possibly strong.  Isolated severe
   storms will be possible in the Midwest Saturday afternoon to early
   evening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730_prt.html

[kperk014]

From WHNT in Huntsville:

Strong to severe storms approach early Saturday, continue through Saturday evening

Morning temperatures dropped into the mid-to-upper 50s Friday morning, but with the strong southwesterly wind, we are seeing those temperatures rebound back into the upper 70s to low 80s Friday afternoon.

These strong southwesterly winds are setting the stage for active severe storms west of us today; while we are in the low-80s with a south breeze, strong storms develop over Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana this afternoon and evening. All of that shifts into Alabama and Tennessee on Saturday. We expect a lot of rain, gusty winds, and a risk of a few severe storms during the day Saturday and into Saturday night across Alabama and Middle Tennessee.

Saturday’s stormy setup: Saturday’s stormy weather is getting clearer, but questions remain about timing and intensity.

The Storm Prediction Center outlines a large area where severe storms are possible Saturday from the Gulf Coast north to southern Kentucky, the *ENHANCED* risk area is now further north to include parts of north Alabama south along the gulf coast; that’s where storms will likely be (1) strongest and (2) most widespread.

Those southern storms may also interfere with the storms in North Alabama and Tennessee. A large complex of storms that develops near the coast often reduces or eliminates the stormy weather in the Tennessee Valley. That’s one scenario that the entire forecast hinges on for Saturday afternoon and evening: big southern storms, little if any severe weather in North Alabama – no southern storms, greater risk around here.

What to expect Saturday: Showers and storms move into Northwest Alabama between 7 AM and 12 PM, then they spread east through Huntsville to Northeast Alabama by late morning through early afternoon. A few of these could be severe: especially in Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, and Limestone Counties before 9 AM.

The line weakens as it moves east of Huntsville into a more stable environment, but rain is still likely as showers develop on and off throughout the morning and early afternoon.

The greater severe weather threat comes in the afternoon and evening (into Saturday night) as we carefully watch what’s happening south of us. This slow-moving storm system leaves a strong southwesterly flow aloft (10,000 to 20,000 feet above our heads), and that likely brings more rain and storms in from the south Saturday evening. If the Gulf Coast storms are strong enough, it will just be rain in North Alabama. If the Gulf Coast storms don’t materialize, we could see some severe storms between 5 PM and midnight. The pieces are in place for severe weather, but those southern storms are a huge factor in whether they will actually develop in North Alabama.

[Carvers Gap]

TRI recorded .1" of snow yesterday.  Not significant other than it is the ninth time that TRI has recored a trace or more of snow since March 1st.  After a "sweltering" couple of weeks during February, that is pretty impressive.  Had to go to Johnson City yesterday to purchase a water heater(why does it always get cold when plumbing jobs are needed around my house?....).  Some bands were really ripping as @Blue Ridge noted in the observation thread.  I had to rent a Penske truck and trek from Kingsport to JC on I-26.  The wind and snow were impressive.  Rivers up here are very full, especially the North Fork of the Holston.  @1234snow, you all must have had a lot more rain than us or maybe points northeast of that.  April has thus far been pretty chilly as it is only about half a degree above our February temps...impressive for the second month of spring.  The Weeklies still depict the "hangover" that @nrgjeff has mentioned.  There is some moderation during May, but still looks pretty cool to me.  They again hint at a switch to warm during late May/early June.  Another item of interest is how dry the Plains looked during this run.  The forum area appears to be normal or slightly above for precip.  Still plenty of blocking up top....but if I remember correctly, blocking over Greenland gives a different result in the SE US once summer arrives.  The 6z GEFS does show moderation.   I do think that outside of the mountains that we have finally seen our last snow.  I am only two weeks from the date that I normally set out my "warm crops" for the garden.  Hey, @Stovepipe I planted some fava beans this spring.  Definitely a new favorite for me in terms of how hardy they re when it is cold.  They pretty much thrive in abysmal conditions.  Hopefully they taste as advertised.

[1234snow]

TRI recorded .1" of snow yesterday.  Not significant other than it is the ninth time that TRI has recored a trace or more of snow since March 1st.  After a "sweltering" couple of weeks during February, that is pretty impressive.  Had to go to Johnson City yesterday to purchase a water heater(why does it always get cold when plumbing jobs are needed around my house?....).  Some bands were really ripping as [mention=1466]Blue Ridge[/mention] noted in the observation thread.  I had to rent a Penske truck and trek from Kingsport to JC on I-26.  The wind and snow were impressive.  Rivers up here are very full, especially the North Fork of the Holston.  [mention=6441]1234snow[/mention], you all must have had a lot more rain than us or maybe points northeast of that.  April has thus far been pretty chilly as it is only about half a degree above our February temps...impressive for the second month of spring.  The Weeklies still depict the "hangover" that [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention] has mentioned.  There is some moderation during May, but still looks pretty cool to me.  They again hint at a switch to warm during late May/early June.  Another item of interest is how dry the Plains looked during this run.  The forum area appears to be normal or slightly above for precip.  Still plenty of blocking up top....but if I remember correctly, blocking over Greenland gives a different result in the SE US once summer arrives.  The 6z GEFS does show moderation.   I do think that outside of the mountains that we have finally seen our last snow.  I am only two weeks from the date that I normally set out my "warm crops" for the garden.  Hey, [mention=1307]Stovepipe[/mention] I planted some fava beans this spring.  Definitely a new favorite for me in terms of how hardy they re when it is cold.  They pretty much thrive in abysmal conditions.  Hopefully they taste as advertised.

Yeah I think areas to the east and northeast of us saw a lot more rain on Sunday. I noticed the Holston was really up in areas close to Abingdon yesterday.

[Carvers Gap]

First, let me say that I don't see any snow in the forecast for the first time since Fall.  However, here is another quick update on the Weeklies that arrived last night(spring/early summer version....meaning less detailed). (edit...sorry for the typos!!!)

1.  BN temps persist.

2.  Seasonal to slightly above normal precip.  Very dry weather over the Plains(and spreading into the western areas of the Midwest this run).  Was a bit too close for comfort during this run.

3.  I suspect(though not seeing anything to support my idea) that the blocking up top might lead to a flip to AN temps during summer.  Somewhere in the back of my mind I have "filed away" that blocking during winter which leads to cold....that the same pattern leads to AN temps during summer.  Maybe the ENSO flirting with a weak Nino could blunt that?

Have a great weekend, everyone.

[nrgjeff]

Indeed -AO in summer is a hot signal for the Southeast. Great Lakes get the BN temps. However in summer everything is shifted north. Weakness over the Lakes puts ridging back over the SE. Yes a developing El Nino would rescue us somewhat from that fate. Let's hope. I am tired of winter but never a fan of a brutal summer. I know I know, we live in the South, lol!

[Moonhowl]

Yep, the interminable BN temps and wind with an extra helping of wind will at some point suddenly switch to a torch leaving us essentially just skipping spring and mild days with it nice to be outside.  But some hope El Nino could save us this summer is better than nothing I guess.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What do y'all think of this weird little Bahamas low the GFS has on again off again spun up toward the end of its past few runs? It looks to me (if the GFS past 10 days is to be believed) that some energy swings through and down and gets trapped under a developing Bermuda high. Maybe the high is part of my much longed for pattern adjustment? Hopefully not a quick switch to a dry torch as y'all suggest, though it wouldn't surprise me in the least and to be fair I'd take a two week dry torch, but then bring some nice afternoon T-Storms in, rolling off the mountains. 

I seem to remember the GFS has some problems with trying to spin up systems like this in the early summer, when in fact nothing like it will happen.  But it's been a year, so can't quite remember.  If it were to materialize it could have an impact around here and might be something interesting to watch.

Edit: Annnnnnndd I could just be fantasizing about tropical weather and Bermuda highs at this point...

[nrgjeff]

One can safely assume is is GFS BS. Also means we do not have to fear a death SER anytime soon. Cheers!

In the immediate term, looks like a mountain wave wind event tonight into Monday morning (Apr. 22-23). Well, it's something to track, lol..

[Carvers Gap]

Yes, the LR is boring right now.  BORING!!!   LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Indeed.  To alleviate the boredom, I think we should discuss the downstream implications for the TN Valley of any possible weather in the Four Corners area for the last half of May. Ideally we would start with whether or not there might be a series of bowling balls rolling through that area and then we could extrapolate if these would then track NE through the plains dragging a cold front through our area.  

Silliness aside, starting to think the pattern will be changing when I leave for my Southwest trip. Sadness. 

Jeff seems to be thinking about a possible change May 14 and that is the day I depart. I have two hopeful prospects for it though. I think/ hope the overall latitude of the base of the western trough will be a little further north than last year and/ or it will be a temporary trough like the one this week. Hopefully that means some early summer-like weather for y'all though.  I'm ready for afternoon T-storms rolling in off the mountains. Amazing how quickly the pollen has recouped after last week's rain. 

[jaxjagman]

The Pollen is bad right now.Predicted to get into the high range here in Mid-Tn tomorrow and Friday.I wear contacts and had to take them out because my eyes were totally blood shot,plus the sinus headaches are not much fun either.Certainly pulling for some rain sooner than later.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I agree. I've lived here all my life and I've never had trouble with my eyes like I've had this year. 

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies...Looking much warmer.  Temps are AN to seasonal...very little BN.  The BIG news(we will see if it holds) is the BN precip that it depicts.  For as much rain as we have had, soil moisture in my garden is very low for this time of the year.  Looks like I need to invest in drip irrigation.  

[nrgjeff]

Appears the SSW hangover is finished. In prep for my late May wishes, I gave mother nature copious amounts of Gatorade and one aspirin. Works like a charm!

Pattern is still variable so I expect fronts through here into early June. However the background -AAM and MJO phases next few weeks are a warm east signal. Weeklies confirm Holston camping trip signal for the Plains trip, lol!

Regarding soil moisture, April was AN rain but all at once. It has been dry for a couple weeks. January was also cool and dry. February was mild and stormy. Tee up a repeat!

 

[John1122]

Found this interesting. Not much of a severe season in Tennessee. Especially for BNA/MRX. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Found this interesting. Not much of a severe season in Tennessee. Especially for BNA/MRX. 

That is a really cool map.  Southern Texas is surprising where it has been 698 days since the last twister?  Northern Cali is as well where they are only at 40.  Also surprised eastern Montana has gone so long without one.  They can have some huge thunderstorm complexes during summer.  One would think they would spin one up slightly more often. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro looks optimistic for some pop up PM storms on the plateau next Tuesday, perhaps associated with an upper low, cutoff in GA.  Seems like a weird set up to get terrain/ PM/ differential heating storms (not really sure of potential mechanism), though that's what they look like on the weather.us, Euro map.

Ready for afternoon, "garden variety" summer storms!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro, GFS, and CMC seem pretty optimistic about rainfall next week. I won't be here to enjoy it if it materializes, but give you joy of it, if like me, you feel the pollen needs to be smacked down and I know there are soil moisture concerns for some of your gardens. 

The mystical/ mythical convective feedback? (according to Levi Cowan) hurricane still looms in the long range of the GFS (hey 4 EPS members had it yesterday AM). GFS just won't let it go and if it was a feedback issue, that would make sense.  But, there seems to have been a pattern lately of disturbances rotating around the Atlantic high, so I wonder even if this is a convective feedback issue, there won't be perhaps a more vigorous disturbance roll up from the Gulf in a week and a half to two weeks.