jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Snow shower now.We haven't had snow here in over 10 years in March,rare to see it snow twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Temp is currently 36 degrees. Not much precip right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Most short range models show a lull between the rain and snow for the northeast Valley. The snow in NE TN/SW VA happens after the energy in the vortex dives into the trough as the slp develops along the coast. It deepens that coastal low and snow builds into that region w energy diving into the trough. Looks like it tomorrow morning that the snow (if it happens) begins for lower elevations. The snow in Wytheville is early if one looks at the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Most of the area is in the rather large dry slot. I hope some precip builds in during the overnight. I don't think much will accumulate during the day below 2500-3000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Snow shower now.We haven't had snow here in over 10 years in March,rare to see it snow twice Are you still in Brentwood? I'm near Lewisburg and we've had accumulating snow 5 out of the last 6 years in March. A couple of them were trivial, but three were over an inch. Edit: Sorry, didn't mean to come across argumentative. Just seems like the March nuisance snow is pretty standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Most of the area is in the rather large dry slot. I hope some precip builds in during the overnight. I don't think much will accumulate during the day below 2500-3000 feet. I really feel like you are in the best spot out of all of us for this event. I think you can get 2-3” inches from midnight till sunrise. You have some more elevation and you will be getting most of the “heavier snow” before sunrise. After sunrise nothing much will stick for anyone expect the highest of peaks like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 https://obergatlinburg.com/webcam/ Ober Gatlinburg is just now starting to transition to snow.scroll down to second cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Currently 34 and dropping nickel and quarter sized flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Coach B said: Are you still in Brentwood? I'm near Lewisburg and we've had accumulating snow 5 out of the last 6 years in March. A couple of them were trivial, but three were over an inch. Edit: Sorry, didn't mean to come across argumentative. Just seems like the March nuisance snow is pretty standard. Nah,you're good.I stand corrected,we got a couple inches in March a couple years ago.I don't remember it snowing that much though.Maybe because it's more a nuisance like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Knoxville should start switching over around midnight or shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 My main concern is in simply getting snow established on the ground before dawn, if it can stay overcast and remain snowy I think It'll stay white. With the way the cold air is wrapping in, my area may very well be one of the last areas in the valley to change over though the terrain here is more favorable. As of now the temperature here has stagnated at 42F stubbornly and snow roughly begins at 3,500 ft to 4,000 ft. Looking at the short range models for Wednesday snow wise the hourly HRRR and RAP have not been very enthusiastic about the back edge of the system and snow could subside a lot earlier than expected if they turn out to be correct. The RGEM, ICON, and 12km NAM on the other hand maintain light snow throughout the day with some heavier bursts. The 3km NAM takes the middle ground in this case. Looking at the radar I am pleased to see the radar fill back in to the west of here and as mentioned before I think John is in the best position out of all of us for tonight certainly in a better position than me and the folks in the Kingsport Snow Hole of Approval. Olhausen and Kentucky according to the radar have probably had a good night for bonus snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, 1234snow said: I really feel like you are in the best spot out of all of us for this event. I think you can get 2-3” inches from midnight till sunrise. You have some more elevation and you will be getting most of the “heavier snow” before sunrise. After sunrise nothing much will stick for anyone expect the highest of peaks like you said. I'm hoping to get something. It's already sticking on grass and leaves. Looks like it should pick up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Coming down pretty good in Corbin, should make for a pretty snow in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Knoxville and Nashville both under the gun atm. It seems snow is falling to 3,000 ft now over me and it seems temperatures are falling again. Im at 39 as of 12:55 AM. I'll be switching over to observations from here for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This is crazy. Snowing hard at my house and 33’ degrees, 1/2” inch or so on the ground already. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This "should"(not sure what they have at the airport) mark the sixth day during March where KTRI will measure a trace or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hi-Res, short range models showing a little lobe of vorticity rotating around the larger cut off at H5, sweeping through the eastern forum areas around 12-3 PM (depending on your location). Will be interesting to see if we can get one last burst of enhancement from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just an observation...the 0z Euro and 6z GFS 500vort progression w the energy entering Northern California beginning in about 72 hours is interesting. Much different animal....no idea if true, but will watch with just slightly more than passing interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 The Weeklies are again about as cold I have seen them....below is the d11-18 time frame. The hangover from the strat warming and subsequent block is going to be tough to shake. Jeff had some great analogies in an earlier post regarding mountain beverages. It is really, really difficult to get it to snow in meaningful amounts from this point forward for lower elevations anywhere in the forum area. That said, I can't rule it out. I think climo just does not support it, and it usually wins. But seeing cold still on the map and also seeing models spit-out some big hitters from time to time...I just can't shake the idea that the pattern might have one more surprise. At minimum, the mountains look poised to potentially score more snow between now and late April. Today was just raw at times when the wind was blowing. I think lower elevation snows are done at this point...but again, that look(if it verifies) would likely have some close calls. While I certainly don't think snow chances continue into late April, the Weeklies are BN until almost May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 All 0z models shifted the initial snow band for Friday night/Saturday morning west into more of SWVA and getting close to NETN. Areas from Marion to Blacksburg look to get anywhere from 4-10”. May have to use shovels at the Martinsville race on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Definitely looks like things are trending to some degree of a front end thump tomorrow AM for SWVA and maybe even NE TN. I think it will help y'all if it clears off a bit up that way before sunset and you get a bit of radiational cooling before the precip. begins. Also looks like as the low transfers across the mountains the thermal gradient Blunderstorm and I discussed in the Obs thread will set up between Marion and Wytheville. Will be interesting to see if it sets up in a slightly different way or angle given a different angle of approach for this storm. The front end bit comes through early AM, so hopefully that helps as well as some heavier rates indicated on some of the short range models. There was a little band that moved through central KY and central TN this AM with a similar orientation and set up to what is going to come through tomorrow morning and, at least on radar, (not sure if it reached the ground) that one over performed compared to earlier modeled depictions. In terms of further down the road: I've struggled with what say about it because as Carver's said last week, I think many people are tired of snow and cold (me included), but it is what it is and to extend his metaphor, it looks like the hungover N. hemisphere has now decided it needs what a month ago would have been an amazing 500 mb pattern in the heart of winter for our part of the world, to shake the headache. Like many of you I'm ready for 70s for highs and 40s for lows, so know I'm not all that thrilled about the rest of this, but patterns gonna pattern. A couple things I've noticed to add to what Carver's has posted this AM and yesterday. The "April Fool's Storm" (perfect title for a storm after this winter) has been showing up in some form or another for a bit, but as usual at long leads, models struggle with which piece of energy to emphasize. There have been a few runs (see 3/22 0z Euro) where it has taken a beautiful track (again if it were February) for east TN snows. I'm not trying to hype this storm, in any way, and I'm mostly interested in this for track and 500 mb pattern, what we need to look for to get a nice Gulf Low on a good track for my location. On the other hand, if everything plays out right, could be a good opportunity to chase some snow above 3000 or 4000 feet. Important to note also that even on the best tracks and model runs, this thing is still producing rain in the valleys. I also have begun over the past few runs of the models to notice some strong highs by April standards coming down out of western Canada. The overall look of the way these Highs are being handled kind of reminds me of how things were looking in late Dec. early Jan when those massive highs were dropping in. They never verified as strong, but the overall pattern and cold did verify. The difference here is that it is April and models not always in agreement in how far south those highs make it. Looking out beyond all this I think and I hope this period (11-18 day) where models are starting to pick up on these highs dropping in is the beginning of the end of this pattern. Here's why: GEPS, GEFS, and EPS all agree by the first of April the coldest 850 temp anomalies are in central and western Canada. If Canada manages to dump it out into the northern tier of the US or even occasionally further south, how will it reload; it's early April. Also, it's April, this has to end at some point, right?? The weeklies across both the American and European models seem to me to struggle with pattern changes, but do a good job once a pattern is established (as it is now). Overall big question for weather will be where does the boundary set up in the battle between spring and winter. The smart money is on over or just north of us, since it will be April. As Jeff said earlier in either this thread or the winter one, that = dreary, cloudy, drippy, chilly. 6z GFS shows just this. The 0z Euro mentioned above shows what could also happen if the boundary gets pulled south for a bit and some energy rolls thorough at the right time. Net result may be the same for the valleys, but for higher elevations it could be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I really want to be in Winter Place Ski Area (WV) this weekend, but we have a commitment in Chatty. I'm never tired of snow, lol! Figure the snow talk is reduced since the lower elevations are out of it. However for the Mountains, it appears snow chances roll on. This weekend I believe the temp gradient Holston mentions will indeed set up again. Looks like it's elevation driven. Of course we have mountain ranges either side of and parallel to I-81. However at the same time I-81 really rises going into Wytheville. Believe cold air drains from the Blue Ridge toward Wytheville. Meets the Valley warm nose just southwest of there. Temp gradient results. Partial thicknesses and 700 mb temps indicate warm nose risk for northeast Tenn. Vort max tracks north which takes away the chance of dynamic bail-out. However I think the mountains will get snow. Also just up I-81 in Virginia could get snow. TRI could get Valley heartbreak this system, but I do like farther northeast in VA. I really want to be in southern West Virginia in case it jogs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I'll admit to becoming somewhat winter weary but I will enjoy the snowfall while it is around. These events can surprise but I'm not holding my breath if there is a way for warm air to intrude through the valley it will find it. I looked at the temperatures in the upper levels that Jeff mentioned and it looks like the conditions could *possibly* support snow for a little while longer up here with help from dynamic cooling if it falls heavy enough and radiational cooling beforehand. The ground here may turn white once again before switching to rain despite thinking I had saw the last of it a few days ago and a week before that. I had mostly written this one off to the north and east of me but I think I'll keep an eye on it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The Weeklies are again about as cold I have seen them....below is the d11-18 time frame. The hangover from the strat warming and subsequent block is going to be tough to shake. Jeff had some great analogies in an earlier post regarding mountain beverages. It is really, really difficult to get it to snow in meaningful amounts from this point forward for lower elevations anywhere in the forum area. That said, I can't rule it out. I think climo just does not support it, and it usually wins. But seeing cold still on the map and also seeing models spit-out some big hitters from time to time...I just can't shake the idea that the pattern might have one more surprise. At minimum, the mountains look poised to potentially score more snow between now and late April. Today was just raw at times when the wind was blowing. I think lower elevation snows are done at this point...but again, that look(if it verifies) would likely have some close calls. While I certainly don't think snow chances continue into late April, the Weeklies are BN until almost May. The weeklies might be right.The MJO is coming alive again getting out of the COD into cold phases for"MAM",it's losing it's signal though towards the IO which might dive back into the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Unfortunately for SWVA folks, after this AM's snow, it looks like roughly I-77 will become the dividing line this afternoon between rain and snow. Current observations show a slight but meaningful temp difference along this line: lower - mid 30s to upper twenties. All short range hi-res models show this line getting pushed back south between 7 and 9 PM tonight by high precip rates, but not by enough to help our folks out. For the March 30 - April 1 deal, still a lot of flip flopping as models try to figure out how the energy comes out of the southwest (as Jax noted yesterday), but I will say the trough east of Hawaii that Carvers has noticed that seems to correlate to good storm tracks for us, continues to show up. Like I said yesterday, not trying to hype something, more looking for meaning pattern indicators that we can save for nice storm tracks in more favorable months. Indeed the MJO seems to have said after it's near? record levels in phases 6-7 in February it wants to take a cruise through 8-3 again. Thanks for mentioning that index, hadn't thought about it in in a while. And yikes on those rainfall totals Jax posted yesterday. Glad we've had a bit to dry out from the earlier rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 The average temp(lows and highs averaged together) for February at TRI was 49.4. The average through March 24th is 42.8 and is 3.0F below normal. KTRI recorded its 7th T or more of snow yesterday. We have nickel and dimed our way to 2.2" of snow in the NE Valley(more in Morristown areas) with some much bigger totals in the mountains and in southwest Virginia. In many cases, March had more snow than the rest of winter combined. At some point this spring, I will try to write a post-mortem on this winter and try to record what worked and didn't work. Right now, the ENSO state, MJO, QBO, strat warm, -EPO and -NAO were very good indicators....One thing that I want to delve into is whether the extreme warmth(which skewed an otherwise cold winter) during mid February is actually an antecedent indicator to the PV split. Hopefully, we will see more mountain snow before this is done. I really need to buy a cabin above 3000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 I joked we'd have Feb in March after having March in Feb. Apparently the temperature data supports it, lol. I also wonder if the Feb warmth was a precursor to the SSW. It all started with a near record MJO pulse IMHO. Did it go tropo, to strato, back to tropo? SSW was near record too. The other issue I saw going into the SSW is the cold strato was on our side and warm strato was over Asia. Cold started that side of the World. Then Europe and the British Isles got the Beast from the East. Finally the USA is still seeing the hangover. Going forward the CFS and Euro weeklies diverge sharply. We'll see if the Euro finds some mild weather tonight. MJO is muddled so I like more variability. Plus that West Pac tropical storm. CFS can and occasionally does beat the ECMWF. Hopefully the Euro comes around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 March has been relentlessly cloudy. It seems like we've had about 4 sunny days all month long. On the positive side, I've had 7 inches of snow this month and it got my season total over 12 inches. Something I never thought possible after the end of February. 6-8 inches below normal still, but at least not the complete disaster that 2016-2017 was. The new normal here seems to be boom or bust with 6-12+ inches above normal or 6-12+ below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 With the way 2018 is going, this wouldn't stun me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 This would be the second opportunity to discuss snow in the spring/summer thread. Even though unlikely....... the pattern says it’s not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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