Carvers Gap Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 One can tell that it is almost fall....The Euro Weeklies are bouncing around a bit. Very warm pattern for the next four weeks for the entire forum area - extended summer. Keys for weeks 4-7(interested in those as we transition out of a summer pattern and looking for hints) is warmth over the Pacific NW and a along the EC w BN temps in the nation's mid-section. Possibly seasonal here, but based on last night's run....slightly AN temps for most of the forum area as well for the second half of the run. Monday's run looking more like a blip. Again, as we approach shoulder season, lots of bouncing around. Feel free to add or subtract or kick to the curb any of those comments. Happy footballing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 CFS and ECMWF weeklies diverge sharply weeks 4-6; well, it must be fall! Euro clusters weeks 4-6 include total opposite solutions all weeks, again fall... First 3 weeks I think it's apparent we should stay warm past the mid-point of Sept. OK add a week of warmth, relative to my previous forecast, unless we get a big weekend flip. Figure the CFS is stuck in its week 3 MJO phase; happens a lot. Euro tries to move things along; it's better with the MJO, but it's been awful in the US lately. Different rates of El Nino onset could be in play too. Bottom line: I'm not buying 5-6 weeks in a row warm. Haven't seen that kind of consistency either direction in months. Will favor moderate ECMWF over the CFS, and the latest Euro is sorta-warm compared to the cool outlier on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Anyone have access to the CANSIPS monthly forecast that was released on 9.1.18? WxBell has not updated. I am wonder if it is flipping towards warm as well in regards to winter....Saw where JB mentioned that the CFSv2(I think) is now calling for a strong Nino as winter presses onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Bohica was correct...Here is a quote from WxSouth on FB (aka Robert and Foothills)... It's now September and many areas of the nation usually start to look forward to northwest flow cold fronts and drier airmasses sometimes bringing in cooler airmasses. I see no such thing, for a very, very long time, in most of the nation. Temps may be closer to normal in the far southern reaches of the nation for the next few weeks, namely southern Miss, southern Alabama, southern Georgia to Florida thanks to being so far removed from the big heat ridge encompassing the majority of the nation (and the east flow, tropical rain chances there). ~WxSouth And indeed the Euro Weeklies are warm to very warm for the next 6-7 weeks. Folks, looks like summer will not end until mid-late October. Hopefully that changes. We need a fall thread now that it is September, but it certainly won't feel like fall (for significant amounts of time) for several weeks. Not a fan....or maybe need a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Yeah I have to punt my more optimistic cooler forecast. Looks like 5-6 weeks hot. Revert to Good Morning Vietnam forecast = BOHICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 So what do we think about Florence at this point? It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under. The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits). If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first... More heat = sad face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: So what do we think about Florence at this point? It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under. The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits). If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first... More heat = sad face Good catch. Yeah, quick glance and interesting for sure. @nrgjeff, you can't go into heat induced hibernation yet...does that look like it is going to make landfall or recurve just prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: So what do we think about Florence at this point? It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under. The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits). If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first... More heat = sad face I will say that if a big storm like that makes a run up the coast, it might cool off for a brief period....Something like that would shake-up the entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Yes! Florence please go east of us and drag down cool air. Gordon to the west acts like whipping (with belt) warm front! ECMWF ensembles (sfc low spaghetti) generally recurve Florence over/near the Carolinas. GFS is a bit more sea. Blue Ridge will depend on track and wind direction. Looking tough to get a lot of rain this side of Apps. Heat ridge bumps it away verbatim (billiard ball meteorology). But that's a 10 day forecast so we can hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I am 100% on board the recurve to bring down cooler air train! I've been hoping this hurricane, or a possible next one further south (if one materializes), could do something about the prognosis for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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