I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[VA Mad Man]

Is all of the energy on shore yet on the west coast? If not..... won’t that alter the solutions somewhat?

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

If the storm does bomb off the coast, is there still a major question of if it will be south of us or north of us?  I’ve seen FB and Twitter posts that imply the south (southern VA and NC border) is going to get hammered again. 

That's my question as well...dont want that becoming yet another way this may not work, smh Please no...we have suffered through that kind of miss enough!!

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

If the storm does bomb off the coast, is there still a major question of if it will be south of us or north of us?  I’ve seen FB and Twitter posts that imply the south (southern VA and NC border) is going to get hammered again. 

If I were to hazard a guess at this time it would be the coastal will initially end up off the coast anywhere from OBX down to Charleston. The question after that is where does it track. Stronger system will tend to have an adjustment more northward of the track. Trough placement and axis will influence track as it goes for the capture. And the confluence to the north will limit northward movement depending how far south that is. If we also see a quicker breakdown of the confluence in the NE this would tend to allow much further north movement as the blocking is removed to the north. But as far as where this will go? I tend to like the farther north and closer coastal idea. But I sure wouldn't bet on that.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

If the storm does bomb off the coast, is there still a major question of if it will be south of us or north of us?  I’ve seen FB and Twitter posts that imply the south (southern VA and NC border) is going to get hammered again. 

 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's my question as well...dont want that becoming yet another way this may not work, smh Please no...we have suffered through that kind of miss enough!!

That's exactly my fear. When I say a monster I mean it would have to be a sub 980 phased beast to overcome the issues I'm seeing. Otherwise just a healthy 988 low will cut off south due to the boundary being south after wave 1 then run northeast and out along the trough left behind by wave 1.  If wave 1 ends up weak and escaping I think southern VA is favored again for the storm that develops behind it. Fits this years climo and fits Nina climo and screws us so why doubt it?  

[kingbinger]

6z CMC on meteocentre looks GREAT.  Similar to last nights solution.  Large area of 30 mm + QPF as snow and a bullseye of 40 mm centered around Germantown/Frederick.

[BristowWx]

Morning everyone.  Caught couple hours zzz’s after 6z runs.  Back on the job.  Good luck and Godspeed for all of us.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I know your not trolling. It's good. I do fret. I have seen way too many rug pulls to ever feel safe until the snow is falling and I'm posting deck pics. I agree odds we don't see any snow are low. But I always think of "how it goes wrong" and in this case I mean how does a big event go wrong and I envisioned a scenario the other day where wave 1 is weak and only drops 2-3" then wave 2 gets suppressed because of wave 1 escaping. And right now that's become the consensus across all guidance. I don't see where I'm being alarmist. I put out a worse case scenario 48 hours ago and now guidance has trended to exactly what that scenario was.  It's close to big still. We either need wave 1 to slow more like cmc or wave 2 to amplify more although I'm skeptical that can happen enough given the issues with wave one elongating and tugging it east. But no I don't like it when the models converge on what my "nightmare scenario" was. And that's been happening way too much lately. 

On another note if this goes down how it "might" and just south of us gets it I will feel happy for our D.C. Friends but then the seasonal "snowhole" wrt average will be right over us. If D.C. gets an 8" snow they would actually end up around average. Meanwhile if we get fringed and get 2-3 we end up around 50% of average where I am. When you look at the final map of snowfall wrt average the big losers will be right here lol. That will sting a bit. I'd kind of rather it fail totally and not be close then suffer that fate. 

Honestly, I think we should be happy if places like DC and Baltimore score. It's been totally painful for them.

Aren't you at 20 inches+ for the year? It might not be climo. But DC ia basically averaging like 3 inches or something ridiculous in the last 2 years. Lets let them have one. I am pulling for them down there.

I am nearing  climo this year surprisingly. Its been ugly, its been full of fail, but somehow we got there. I'd totally be ok sitting this one out.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That's exactly my fear. When I say a monster I mean it would have to be a sub 980 phased beast to overcome the issues I'm seeing. Otherwise just a healthy 988 low will cut off south due to the boundary being south after wave 1 then run northeast and out along the trough left behind by wave 1.  If wave 1 ends up weak and escaping I think southern VA is favored again for the storm that develops behind it. Fits this years climo and fits Nina climo and screws us so why doubt it?  

We are like the Ying and the Yang of these boards. The glass half full and the glass half empty duo. You look for ways to fail and I look for ways to win. Hope I am right in this case. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That's exactly my fear. When I say a monster I mean it would have to be a sub 980 phased beast to overcome the issues I'm seeing. Otherwise just a healthy 988 low will cut off south due to the boundary being south after wave 1 then run northeast and out along the trough left behind by wave 1.  If wave 1 ends up weak and escaping I think southern VA is favored again for the storm that develops behind it. Fits this years climo and fits Nina climo and screws us so why doubt it?  

Wait...so whi

 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That's exactly my fear. When I say a monster I mean it would have to be a sub 980 phased beast to overcome the issues I'm seeing. Otherwise just a healthy 988 low will cut off south due to the boundary being south after wave 1 then run northeast and out along the trough left behind by wave 1.  If wave 1 ends up weak and escaping I think southern VA is favored again for the storm that develops behind it. Fits this years climo and fits Nina climo and screws us so why doubt it?  

So you're saying even with a weak wave 1 we could still lose? Whereas if wave 1 is to strong wave 2 doesn't phase at all...and if wave 1 is too weak wave 2 phases but south of us? That sounds more like a lose-lose scenario...But last night's runs don't paint those as the only two options! What did the good runs do last night? A sub 980 beast? (or just a further north track?)

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

Honestly, I think we should be happy if places like DC and Baltimore score. It's been totally painful for them.

Aren't you at 20 inches+ for the year? It might not be climo. But DC ia basically averaging like 3 inches or something ridiculous in the last 2 years. Lets let them have one. I am pulling for them down there.

I am nearing  climo this year surprisingly. Its been ugly, its been full of fail, but somehow we got there. I'd totally be ok sitting this one out.

Haven't you learned yet, that this is a back yard sport. It's all fine and dandy hoping others get snow just as long as your back yard is getting more. And then to suggest someone should sacrifice their own snow for others. Sacrilege!

[H2O]

5 pieces of energy. That’s the key. The models are going to juggle and evolve every run as they sort them out.  Each wave has a symbiotic relationship to the other.  Like having 5 toddlers in the room. If one steals a toy from the other it will affect the other 3. 

[WeathermanB]

What is the 00z CMC even doing? That's a lot of snow as depicted by the canadian. 

Also has waay more snow than the 12z yesterday. My preecious!

 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't you learned yet, that this is a back yard sport. It's all fine and dandy hoping others get snow just as long as your back yard is getting more. And then to suggest someone should sacrifice their own snow for others. Sacrilege!

Be quiet and gimme your snow. It’s mine.  I’m telling mom if you don’t!

[showmethesnow]

Just now, H2O said:

Be quiet and gimme your snow. It’s mine.  I’m telling mom if you don’t!

You live around DC. Snow is forbidden down there by law. So take it up with the local authorities and don't give me grief.

[Wonderdog]

Rising NAO may help us.

 

[Bob Chill]

The most important piece of guidance that keeps improving is the eps. The wave 2 idea continues to gain momentum. Getting close to the 1" mean qpf contour (dca officially in it) and that keeps going up every run. How on earth can that be interpreted any other way than things keep looking better. Even though it's a scrape, the euro op has precip for wave 2 with 0z when it had nada at 12z. This S is getting fun 

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't you learned yet, that this is a back yard sport. It's all fine and dandy hoping others get snow just as long as your back yard is getting more. And then to suggest someone should sacrifice their own snow for others. Sacrilege!

This is true. We have one the last if not the last shot here. This set up is too good to watch someone 50 miles away get nailed while we up here get ( dare i say it fringed ). If my area had received 60 inches on the year i would say its someone elses turn and be happy for them. Not the case now. I'm sick of watching the eastern shore and South jersey get S+ and we get light snow and I record another . 5 event.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We are like the Ying and the Yang of these boards. The glass half full and the glass half empty duo. You look for ways to fail and I look for ways to win. Hope I am right in this case. 

It's ok both are needed. I do see a way to win I just think we disagree on the most likely path to victory. And because of that I see things trending the wrong way and you see them going the right way. I truly think a wave 1 escape us a fail. I've seen this setup before. That almost never works. A lead wave escape sets up a trough boundary for the next wave to escape on and creates dry air intrusion north of the boundary. Wave 2 almost always gets suppressed unless there is more separation then I see here to rebuild ridging in front. In short I don't see enough space to pull that off. 

But I do still think a win is capable. We're not that far from trending back to the cmc solution. The 6z cmc stuck with it btw. Has a consolidated monster. And there are a decent EPS cluster like that. About 15 members. And the majority of the gefs too. There are 14 members that like the stronger lead wave then consolidated storm idea. 6 are like the op. If you get rid of the 6 the mean snow here is 10" in the majority camp. So I do think we could still get that. But my pessimism is because we're moving away from that. 

I feel like some are seeing the way it's trending and then finding a way to work with that trend. But I've seen nothing that gets it done that way. The trend back to a stronger wave 2 is misleading because it's also linked to the models that have a stronger wave 1. I see nothing showing the win with wave 2 only scenario. 

So as a mental exercise imagine you agree with me that wave 2 alone was a lost cause and we need wave 1 to have wave 2. Now how would you feel about the trends?  

Thats where I am. I'm rooting for the opposite trends as you. I want to see things converge around the cmc idea not trying to get wave one out of the way then need some crazy perfect dance between multiple vorts to phase just eight and bomb something due north up the coast that starts out off the Carolinas. That's a fail here 99% of the time. Our big storms come at us from a SW trajectory not starting out off the southeast coast and coming due north. For every 1 of those that works 100 fail. I'm not giving up on the classic easy path to root for some 1 in 100 year crazy capture tug in scenario when we have already failed at that exact thing several times this year. 

ETA: wave one can miss us IF it also slows down and waits then phases and comes up. Some do that. Weak but SLOW wave 1 then phases. But if wave 1 escapes east it's over imo. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Honestly, I think we should be happy if places like DC and Baltimore score. It's been totally painful for them.

Aren't you at 20 inches+ for the year? It might not be climo. But DC ia basically averaging like 3 inches or something ridiculous in the last 2 years. Lets let them have one. I am pulling for them down there.

I am nearing  climo this year surprisingly. Its been ugly, its been full of fail, but somehow we got there. I'd totally be ok sitting this one out.

Yeah, climo through this area (DC/MD/NOVA) is so wide-varying, so the perceptions on what's really bad can be different.  I live just on the northwest side of suburban DC, so I fare better than the District itself or more to the southeast...so even just a few miles in the metro area can make a big difference.  Anyhow, thus far this year I've gotten about the same or less snow than last year, ironically enough.  Last winter was partly salvaged by the mid-March event, and even that was kind of disappointing for most.  I got just over 3" from that, but it was nearly all sleet.  Still kind of a cool event, but it ended up not as good as it could have.  This year, I have not had a 3"+ event once...the most I've seen at one time were 1.5" in December and 2.0" in mid-February.  Otherwise it's been a couple of scattered half inch dustings during the couple of bitter cold outbreaks we got.

But on the other hand despite how anemic it's been for me, I can definitely see where "western folks" or those more up toward the PA border in this forum have really suffered the past couple of years too.  Even though their totals might be higher.  Fact is, nobody in this general forum has seen anything much worthwhile since the Jan. 2016 blizzard, with the exception of those near the eastern shore.

One thing about this winter, we sure have done strong winds really well!  The most interesting weather event to this point was the March 2 wind event...woo-hoo!

Hell, we need a MECS (doesn't have to be historic) that dumps better than warning-criteria snow over the entire region!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We are like the Ying and the Yang of these boards. The glass half full and the glass half empty duo. You look for ways to fail and I look for ways to win. Hope I am right in this case. 

We all could do with a full pint or three of beer, that's for sure! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

If the storm does bomb off the coast, is there still a major question of if it will be south of us or north of us?  I’ve seen FB and Twitter posts that imply the south (southern VA and NC border) is going to get hammered again. 

That scenario is lessening imho and the idea for a coastal low (bomb?) being just off the Mid Atl seems to be slowly increasing. Hopefully it doesnt just "trend" and we can actually get this to verify in the end. The cluster of GEPS members at the Mid Atl benchmark bombing out is certainly eye-opening tho.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Canadians really like their snow, eh?

[GEOS5ftw]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The most important piece of guidance that keeps improving is the eps. The wave 2 idea continues to gain momentum. Getting close to the 1" mean qpf contour (dca officially in it) and that keeps going up every run. How on earth can that be interpreted any other way than things keep looking better. Even though it's a scrape, the euro op has precip for wave 2 with 0z when it had nada at 12z. This S is getting fun 

This. Since the time change I haven't been staying up for 0z runs and the first piece of guidance I check in the morning is the best we have for this situation, the EPS. Then the GEFS and GEPS, followed by op runs. The trend toward a closed contour at H5 on the means with wave 2, forming over the TN valley then tracking east is unmistakable. That is what we need to produce in our region. Like you I'm sweating the temps with wave 1 but 2-3 slushy inches Tuesday morning would be on par with the biggest event of the year here so I'd take, and anything with wave 2 is a bonus. Sure, fail options are still on the table but with the last storm the qpf hole was evident at this point on the ens and ops.

BTW the GEOS-5 (fluid.nccs.nasa.gov) has been going with the closed low wave 2 since 0z yesterday...maybe not such a bad model afterall .

 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Canadians really like their snow, eh?

Where's @caewhen you need the snowfall maps. What a slacker.  

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Canadians really like their snow, eh?

AS noted by someone else a while ago...06z run is a thing of beauty as well

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Honestly, I think we should be happy if places like DC and Baltimore score. It's been totally painful for them.

Aren't you at 20 inches+ for the year? It might not be climo. But DC ia basically averaging like 3 inches or something ridiculous in the last 2 years. Lets let them have one. I am pulling for them down there.

I am nearing  climo this year surprisingly. Its been ugly, its been full of fail, but somehow we got there. I'd totally be ok sitting this one out.

I will feel good for them. But that won't stop the sting fully. And climo matters. You say I'm doing ok but if winter ends now this would be the least snowy year of the 12 I've lived here. A 20" snow winter here is as bad as a 3" year in DC. Just like a 50" winter in Deep Creek is awful for them.  Plus I like big snows. Im not a nickel and dime fan. This will be the first year ever I didn't record a 6" snowstorm. Twice 6" was my max single event in 2013 and 2008 but I've never not hit a warning criteria snow. So not only am I sitting on my lowest season total ever but I'm also sitting on my lowest single storm total ever. No way to spin that as not a total fail. 

That said if it becomes apparent that D.C. is going to win and I lose I'm not going to carry on like a baby and ruin their fun. Ill slink away and shut up and let them enjoy without me posting my frustration. 

We aren't there yet. And there are others up here in this forum. Mappy. Showmethesnow, losetoa6, highstakes...and there are several others around that are north of 70 in Maryland that I'm speaking for here.  Once it becomes clear the battle is lost I'll stop tracking for mby and let the winners enjoy their win. 

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's ok both are needed. I do see a way to win I just think we disagree on the most likely path to victory. And because of that I see things trending the wrong way and you see them going the right way. I truly think a wave 1 escape us a fail. I've seen this setup before. That almost never works. A lead wave escape sets up a trough boundary for the next wave to escape on and creates dry air intrusion north of the boundary. Wave 2 almost always gets suppressed unless there is more separation then I see here to rebuild ridging in front. In short I don't see enough space to pull that off. 

But I do still think a win is capable. We're not that far from trending back to the cmc solution. The 6z cmc stuck with it btw. Has a consolidated monster. And there are a decent EPS cluster like that. About 15 members. And the majority of the gefs too. There are 14 members that like the stronger lead wave then consolidated storm idea. 6 are like the op. If you get rid of the 6 the mean snow here is 10" in the majority camp. So I do think we could still get that. But my pessimism is because we're moving away from that. 

I feel like some are seeing the way it's trending and then finding a way to work with that trend. But I've seen nothing that gets it done that way. The trend back to a stronger wave 2 is misleading because it's also linked to the models that have a stronger wave 1. I see nothing showing the win with wave 2 only scenario. 

So as a mental exercise imagine you agree with me that wave 2 alone was a lost cause and we need wave 1 to have wave 2. Now how would you feel about the trends?  

Thats where I am. I'm rooting for the opposite trends as you. I want to see things converge around the cmc idea not trying to get wave one out of the way then need some crazy perfect dance between multiple vorts to phase just eight and bomb something due north up the coast that starts out off the Carolinas. That's a fail here 99% of the time. Our big storms come at us from a SW trajectory not starting out off the southeast coast and coming due north. For every 1 of those that works 100 fail. I'm not giving up on the classic easy path to root for some 1 in 100 year crazy capture tug in scenario when we have already failed at that exact thing several times this year. 

ETA: wave one can miss us IF it also slows down and waits then phases and comes up. Some do that. Weak but SLOW wave 1 then phases. But if wave 1 escapes east it's over imo. 

Just a couple of days ago I preferred the slow strong initial low off the coast waiting for wave two and the 500's to catch up. But over the last two days with the changes I have seen on the models I no longer feel that is a higher odds win for us. I think the more likely scenario that plays out if we see that is that to the NE of us once again cashes in while we are left fighting over the scraps that they care to throw under the table for us. But let's see where the models take us. Have a feel they aren't done evolving yet.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, poolz1 said:

AS noted by someone else a while ago...06z run is a thing of beauty as well

I don't know, looks like it gives DC/Balt south and east yellow snow according to that map!

But seriously, that is a nice look...

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

This is true. We have one the last if not the last shot here. This set up is too good to watch someone 50 miles away get nailed while we up here get ( dare i say it fringed ). If my area had received 60 inches on the year i would say its someone elses turn and be happy for them. Not the case now. I'm sick of watching the eastern shore and South jersey get S+ and we get light snow and I record another . 5 event.

Exactly how i feel

[WVclimo]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The most important piece of guidance that keeps improving is the eps. The wave 2 idea continues to gain momentum. Getting close to the 1" mean qpf contour (dca officially in it) and that keeps going up every run. How on earth can that be interpreted any other way than things keep looking better. Even though it's a scrape, the euro op has precip for wave 2 with 0z when it had nada at 12z. This S is getting fun 

Does any of the precip from the 2nd wave on the EPS make it out this way (HGR-MRB-OKV) ?  Until now, I have been pulling for the best slug of precip possible with the first wave and hoping for temps to cooperate, because even the models that have keyed on the follow-up have mostly kept QPF south/ east of here.