I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[CAPE]

The 0z EPS Control run would make almost everyone in the subforum happy.

[showmethesnow]

Now I am sure there are many out there that can not understand why the models are having such a hard time with our possible 2'nd storm. After all we are inside 3 days, Right? Let me just show you what the models have to try to figure out.

Below is a 500 mb vort map from the 06Z gfs. Now below I have the 5 major pieces the models have to deal with and figure out how they will interact with each other. We have the 50/50 induced confluence in NE and four parcels of energy (E1-E4) with E1 being the lead storm in this setup. Let's focus on E1 for now. Now what that decides to do will have a major impact on what we see upstream with the broad overall trough and the shortwaves/energy that is rotating and diving down into the trough. Now the models have been somewhat erratic with just that feature alone (storm 1) that sets the stage for 24-36 hours later. And much of this erratic behavior can be attributed to the confluence to the north. As the models adjust on the northern/southern extent of this (confluence) it will impact storm 1's strength and track. The farther north with the confluence the farther north we see storm 1's track as well as a probably a stronger system. Conversely the farther south it is the farther south the track and the weaker the system. Now not only do the models need to figure out the track and strength of storm 1 but they also need to figure out the speed. This speed will determine the separation between storm 1 and 2 which is a big player on how those storms will interact or not with each other.

Now all of the above is just to set the stage for our possible coastal which is already complicated enough as it is. Look at what else the models have to figure out. Notice the 3 pieces of energy in the trough dropping into the central portion of the country? And these are just the major pieces of energy involved because if you look around there is a lot of minor pieces of energy as well, all of which can have a meaningful impact as well if given the opportunity. So now the models have to figure out how these 3 pieces of energy are going to interact all of which are moving and different speeds, angles and configurations and this doesn't even consider the minor pieces that can impact each of these major pieces of energy. Now to further complicate this, the models have a hard time outside of 48 hours on the placement, strength, speed, etc... of this energy as can be evidenced if you follow run to run consistency. 

Okay, now the models have a real headache trying to figure all of the above out so let's throw one more thing on the pile. That confluence that impacted the first storm? Well that is a player as well with our possible coastal. Same things apply as before. Further north, the further north the coastal can track and yada, yada, yada. But one other thing comes into play here as well. At this point in time it looks as if the confluence will begin to break down. Now depending on exactly when that occurs can have a very meaningful impact on the track and evolution of storm 2 off the coast. So you can see, there is a lot for the models to sort through. 

Just a couple of quick comments. Within 48 hrs I normally start laying more weight to the energy rotating through the 500's. But the setup is so convoluted at this point I am not so sure that may be the case here. We may be looking at 12-24 hours before we have a good sense of how the energy will play out. Also mentioned in another post I thought the 06Z had improved. What I liked seeing was the energy (E2, E3, E4) lined up where they were dropping down the backside of the energy to it's south.

[MD Snow]

Just a hunch but I think we’re going to have some crazy solutions thrown at us today. Like HECS type crazy solutions. 

[showmethesnow]

36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 0z EPS Control run would make almost everyone in the subforum happy.

Shift that 25-35 miles north and I would be much happier. 

[mappy]

Morning early birds, great post showme!

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 0z EPS Control run would make almost everyone in the subforum happy.

Wish I was as optimistic. There are enough "hints" that we could still win that I'm not jumping but....right now every op except the cmc is showing my fail scenario for my yard.  Dunno how I can be optimistic given that.  When I put out my "how it goes wrong" then watch all guidance trend right to that it's usually not a good sign.

ok now this analysts is mostly for the northern portion of the forum. Anyone north of Baltimore. I actually think D.C. South has a better shot right now.  I'm bummed because I think having the first wave slow down and more amped was the path to a big storm.  The cmc way.  This new evolution has a problem.  Wave 1 running off creates an elongated trough running off to the northeast.  That is running interference on the next wave developing a healthy ccb.  The return dry flow behind wave 1 is messing up the ability to get good moisture transport north of wave 2.  That's why some runs have a tucked in low and it still does no good north of D.C.  The icon is the worst example.  It tucks the low in off OC and still leaves anyone nw of 95 dry.  The EPS confirms.  I found 15 members that meet my 6" win threshold up here and only 1 does that without a healthy wave 1.  And there are very few near 6" members.  I wave 1 dumps good snow up here then wave 2 does also and it's a 10+ storm.  If wave 1 misses them wave 2 hits D.C. South.  There was only one member that completely killed wave 1 then bombed out and crushed us all with a 12+ storm.  That's a dream but with only 1/50 showing that it's a pipe dream.  I think the frontrunner escaping is going to run interference and prevent the second wave from having an expansive ccb and that's trouble for nw places. 

And before the fringe jokes start yes that can and has happened plenty of times. There are countless examples where a coastal scraper put down more snow southeast of here and sometimes that sharp back edge can be between D.C. And here. That's why I fear fringed and not rain. Yes it can rain but if I end up all rain the storm went to complete hell. It's hard to get all rain up here unless it becomes a total cutter. More often even when it trends north I still manage some front and back side snow and end up with 3-6" even when the cities are all rain. I've had 8"+ several times when Baltimore was all rain. So rain doesn't scare me. But I am vulnerable to being missed. I have no advantage if the precip misses me. Upslope and colder doesn't help no precip. Plus I'm 50 mikes north of most so it's easier to be missed south then north if it's a close call either way. So naturally being missed is the way bigger fear here. 

[mappy]

I’d rather it miss than be rain, but that’s just me 

[Jandurin]

I’d rather it miss than be rain, but that’s just me 

Drought guy is mad at you

[mappy]

Just now, Jandurin said:

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’d rather it miss than be rain, but that’s just me 

Drought guy is mad at you

I don’t care. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’d rather it miss than be rain, but that’s just me 

It's just personal preference but I'm the opposite. 

[mappy]

LWX current snowfall map, to 8am Tuesday 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's just personal preference but I'm the opposite. 

I hear you, but I think we see some snow out of this system, unless it’s super suppressed. I know you fret a lot, and not trolling you, just trying to ease your worries.

[MD Snow]

Navgem has come north with wave 2 over its last 3 runs. Icon, gfs, euro, nam, cmc and now the navgem all get meangful  precip up to at least Baltimore with wave 2. It’s still more than 3 days away. Most models had nothing yesterday even close to the area. 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wish I was as optimistic. There are enough "hints" that we could still win that I'm not jumping but....right now every op except the cmc is showing my fail scenario for my yard.  Dunno how I can be optimistic given that.  When I put out my "how it goes wrong" then watch all guidance trend right to that it's usually not a good sign.

ok now this analysts is mostly for the northern portion of the forum. Anyone north of Baltimore. I actually think D.C. South has a better shot right now.  I'm bummed because I think having the first wave slow down and more amped was the path to a big storm.  The cmc way.  This new evolution has a problem.  Wave 1 running off creates an elongated trough running off to the northeast.  That is running interference on the next wave developing a healthy ccb.  The return dry flow behind wave 1 is messing up the ability to get good moisture transport north of wave 2.  That's why some runs have a tucked in low and it still does no good north of D.C.  The icon is the worst example.  It tucks the low in off OC and still leaves anyone nw of 95 dry.  The EPS confirms.  I found 15 members that meet my 6" win threshold up here and only 1 does that without a healthy wave 1.  And there are very few near 6" members.  I wave 1 dumps good snow up here then wave 2 does also and it's a 10+ storm.  If wave 1 misses them wave 2 hits D.C. South.  There was only one member that completely killed wave 1 then bombed out and crushed us all with a 12+ storm.  That's a dream but with only 1/50 showing that it's a pipe dream.  I think the frontrunner escaping is going to run interference and prevent the second wave from having an expansive ccb and that's trouble for nw places. 

And before the fringe jokes start yes that can and has happened plenty of times. There are countless examples where a coastal scraper put down more snow southeast of here and sometimes that sharp back edge can be between D.C. And here. That's why I fear fringed and not rain. Yes it can rain but if I end up all rain the storm went to complete hell. It's hard to get all rain up here unless it becomes a total cutter. More often even when it trends north I still manage some front and back side snow and end up with 3-6" even when the cities are all rain. I've had 8"+ several times when Baltimore was all rain. So rain doesn't scare me. But I am vulnerable to being missed. I have no advantage if the precip misses me. Upslope and colder doesn't help no precip. Plus I'm 50 mikes north of most so it's easier to be missed south then north if it's a close call either way. So naturally being missed is the way bigger fear here. 

Actually I can see this working both ways. Strong initial storm one that lags behind which was my preference just a day or two ago. Or a weak initial storm that runs out ahead. At this point, though I can't rule it out, I think the strong initial low idea is losing traction and the weaker idea is coming into play. If that is the case then we want to see greater separation between the two systems with the initial as weak as possible. And I think for the most part the models have been trending this way. And the fact I am seeing initial redevelopment (second storm) farther to the west over Georgia lends weight to that scenario. I actually like what I am seeing as the pattern has evolved over the last 24-36 hours. If we continue to see the models trending as they have I think we may be looking at some good runs forthcoming. Of course the models have a mind of their own so let's see where they lead us.

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Just a hunch but I think we’re going to have some crazy solutions thrown at us today. Like HECS type crazy solutions. 

I think that you may be right.  Getting close enough that Op runs should really start to sort this out.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

I hear you, but I think we see some snow out of this system, unless it’s super suppressed. I know you fret a lot, and not trolling you, just trying to ease your worries.

I know your not trolling. It's good. I do fret. I have seen way too many rug pulls to ever feel safe until the snow is falling and I'm posting deck pics. I agree odds we don't see any snow are low. But I always think of "how it goes wrong" and in this case I mean how does a big event go wrong and I envisioned a scenario the other day where wave 1 is weak and only drops 2-3" then wave 2 gets suppressed because of wave 1 escaping. And right now that's become the consensus across all guidance. I don't see where I'm being alarmist. I put out a worse case scenario 48 hours ago and now guidance has trended to exactly what that scenario was.  It's close to big still. We either need wave 1 to slow more like cmc or wave 2 to amplify more although I'm skeptical that can happen enough given the issues with wave one elongating and tugging it east. But no I don't like it when the models converge on what my "nightmare scenario" was. And that's been happening way too much lately. 

On another note if this goes down how it "might" and just south of us gets it I will feel happy for our D.C. Friends but then the seasonal "snowhole" wrt average will be right over us. If D.C. gets an 8" snow they would actually end up around average. Meanwhile if we get fringed and get 2-3 we end up around 50% of average where I am. When you look at the final map of snowfall wrt average the big losers will be right here lol. That will sting a bit. I'd kind of rather it fail totally and not be close then suffer that fate. 

[Wxdood]

Let's will this one in here boys. Saw the chatter last week and have been half heartedly following, then took off next Thursday for POWDAH DAYYYYY at Timberline.  Still looking good out there for the most part and their snow pack is deepest since 2016. Let's gooooooooo

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually I can see this working both ways. Strong initial storm one that lags behind which was my preference just a day or two ago. Or a weak initial storm that runs out ahead. At this point, though I can't rule it out, I think the strong initial low idea is losing traction and the weaker idea is coming into play. If that is the case then we want to see greater separation between the two systems with the initial as weak as possible. And I think for the most part the models have been trending this way. And the fact I am seeing initial redevelopment (second storm) farther to the west over Georgia lends weight to that scenario. I actually like what I am seeing as the pattern has evolved over the last 24-36 hours. If we continue to see the models trending as they have I think we may be looking at some good runs forthcoming. Of course the models have a mind of their own so let's see where they lead us.

I see what your saying but right now at this moment we are stuck in between the 2 win scenarios. And your relying on a continued trend towards wave 2. I'm kind of "feeling" but what if this was it. The trend was to this.  I feel that because it feels like we have been here before stuck in between and that's where the trend stopped and left us. And we're near the range where the trends often stop and reality locks in. So your rooting for a continued trend an I'm "fearing" that was the trend and we get left right here where we are now. Did I explain that well I'm kind of a zombie right now. 

[Jandurin]

12z will either confirm or deny that things are still evolving

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro looks really nice for the follow up wave.  Let’s keep that trend goIng. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Jandurin said:

12z will either confirm or deny that things are still evolving

That is pretty much what I believe. The next 2 runs should really solidify where this is headed. Big model cycle in a couple hours.

[snowmagnet]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Now I am sure there are many out there that can not understand why the models are having such a hard time with our possible 2'nd storm. After all we are inside 3 days, Right? Let me just show you what the models have to try to figure out.

Below is a 500 mb vort map from the 06Z gfs. Now below I have the 5 major pieces the models have to deal with and figure out how they will interact with each other. We have the 50/50 induced confluence in NE and four parcels of energy (E1-E4) with E1 being the lead storm in this setup. Let's focus on E1 for now. Now what that decides to do will have a major impact on what we see upstream with the broad overall trough and the shortwaves/energy that is rotating and diving down into the trough. Now the models have been somewhat erratic with just that feature alone (storm 1) that sets the stage for 24-36 hours later. And much of this erratic behavior can be attributed to the confluence to the north. As the models adjust on the northern/southern extent of this (confluence) it will impact storm 1's strength and track. The farther north with the confluence the farther north we see storm 1's track as well as a probably a stronger system. Conversely the farther south it is the farther south the track and the weaker the system. Now not only do the models need to figure out the track and strength of storm 1 but they also need to figure out the speed. This speed will determine the separation between storm 1 and 2 which is a big player on how those storms will interact or not with each other.

Now all of the above is just to set the stage for our possible coastal which is already complicated enough as it is. Look at what else the models have to figure out. Notice the 3 pieces of energy in the trough dropping into the central portion of the country? And these are just the major pieces of energy involved because if you look around there is a lot of minor pieces of energy as well, all of which can have a meaningful impact as well if given the opportunity. So now the models have to figure out how these 3 pieces of energy are going to interact all of which are moving and different speeds, angles and configurations and this doesn't even consider the minor pieces that can impact each of these major pieces of energy. Now to further complicate this, the models have a hard time outside of 48 hours on the placement, strength, speed, etc... of this energy as can be evidenced if you follow run to run consistency. 

Okay, now the models have a real headache trying to figure all of the above out so let's throw one more thing on the pile. That confluence that impacted the first storm? Well that is a player as well with our possible coastal. Same things apply as before. Further north, the further north the coastal can track and yada, yada, yada. But one other thing comes into play here as well. At this point in time it looks as if the confluence will begin to break down. Now depending on exactly when that occurs can have a very meaningful impact on the track and evolution of storm 2 off the coast. So you can see, there is a lot for the models to sort through. 

Just a couple of quick comments. Within 48 hrs I normally start laying more weight to the energy rotating through the 500's. But the setup is so convoluted at this point I am not so sure that may be the case here. We may be looking at 12-24 hours before we have a good sense of how the energy will play out. Also mentioned in another post I thought the 06Z had improved. What I liked seeing was the energy (E2, E3, E4) lined up where they were dropping down the backside of the energy to it's south.

Thanks for an awesome explanation!   I thought this week’s storm was less convoluted thank last week’s, but it seems like there are several moving parts in this system as well.  Hope they can get together for us this time! 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I see what your saying but right now at this moment we are stuck in between the 2 win scenarios. And your relying on a continued trend towards wave 2. I'm kind of "feeling" but what if this was it. The trend was to this.  I feel that because it feels like we have been here before stuck in between and that's where the trend stopped and left us. And we're near the range where the trends often stop and reality locks in. So your rooting for a continued trend an I'm "fearing" that was the trend and we get left right here where we are now. Did I explain that well I'm kind of a zombie right now. 

Understand completely where you are coming from. To be honest that is one of my worries as well. But I don't believe we have seen the last of the changes. Could go into a long explanation as to why I feel this way but it probably wouldn't make any sense anyway, so I won't. Suffice it to say, I think we are seeing the models move towards a weak initial running out ahead with secondary development down in the southeast. At this point the models want to run that a little to far out to sea but I believe we will see that adjust with a closer coastal track as we see rapid intensification over what the models are currently showing. But maybe this is nothing more then wishful thinking on my part.

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow

Check out the individual gefs members  

the gefs improved at 6z. Something's got to give with that. The op keeps spitting out crap runs and the gefs keeps saying no it's good. 

But look at the members. All the ones that run wave 1 off and have separation between wave 1/2 are a fail. The majority get good snow up here but they do it with a slower wave 1 that lets wave 2 phase into it. Like the op cmc last night. So that's my fear with this rooting for weak wave 1 and get wave 2 trend. I don't think that will work. I think we're rooting against what we need. If wave 1 escapes wave 2 is going to cut off further south due to the suppression behind wave 1 and it's going to have moisture transport issues because we end up north of a frontal boundary with dry flow essentially. I don't see it working. Do you see what I'm looking at?  Hope I'm wrong and just being a worry wart. 

[psuhoffman]

Only way wave 2 works if wave 1 escapes is with a monster. If everything comes together, cuts off and becomes an amped up bomb.  That would overcome the issues behind wave 1. But even then it will be tightly wound due to the dry air intrusion behind wave 1 and we would need a track near OC to work. 

[nj2va]

EPS snowmean for DC from Wave 2 is now up to ~4-4.5”.  About double or so from 12z.  

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only way wave 2 works if wave 1 escapes is with a monster. If everything comes together, cuts off and becomes an amped up bomb.  That would overcome the issues behind wave 1. But even then it will be tightly wound due to the dry air intrusion behind wave 1 and we would need a track near OC to work. 

and that monster has to slow down or wave 1 will muck up wave 2 opp to go boom.  I see your concern, and am hoping we either go back to miller b or give trailing wave time.  Option 2 seems like the one we are evolving towards

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow

Check out the individual gefs members  

the gefs improved at 6z. Something's got to give with that. The op keeps spitting out crap runs and the gefs keeps saying no it's good. 

But look at the members. All the ones that run wave 1 off and have separation between wave 1/2 are a fail. The majority get good snow up here but they do it with a slower wave 1 that lets wave 2 phase into it. Like the op cmc last night. So that's my fear with this rooting for weak wave 1 and get wave 2 trend. I don't think that will work. I think we're rooting against what we need. If wave 1 escapes wave 2 is going to cut off further south due to the suppression behind wave 1 and it's going to have moisture transport issues because we end up north of a frontal boundary with dry flow essentially. I don't see it working. Do you see what I'm looking at?  Hope I'm wrong and just being a worry wart. 

Haven't dived into the individual members but yes I can imagine how they are playing out with the fail scenario on storm 1 running out ahead. But as I see with your follow up post you bring up what I believe/hope we will eventually see. And that is a monster develop off the coast. The models have been hammering on that general idea at 500's for almost 10 days now. They continual evolve with the the overall look and yet they still show a look at 500's that suggest a big storm off the eastern seaboard. They in essence see that the overall pattern argues for that and they will get there one way or another. Now even if we have a big storm off the coast doesn't mean we can score. We could very well fail. But at this point I would gladly roll the dice on that scenario.

[wkd]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only way wave 2 works if wave 1 escapes is with a monster. If everything comes together, cuts off and becomes an amped up bomb.  That would overcome the issues behind wave 1. But even then it will be tightly wound due to the dry air intrusion behind wave 1 and we would need a track near OC to work. 

What do you think we want to see with respect to the confluence to the northest as it influences this event?

[snowmagnet]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't dived into the individual members but yes I can imagine how they are playing out with the fail scenario on storm 1 running out ahead. But as I see with your follow up post you bring up what I believe/hope we will eventually see. And that is a monster develop off the coast. The models have been hammering on that general idea at 500's for almost 10 days now. They continual evolve with the the overall look and yet they still show a look at 500's that suggest a big storm off the eastern seaboard. They in essence see that the overall pattern argues for that and they will get there one way or another. Now even if we have a big storm off the coast doesn't mean we can score. We could very well fail. But at this point I would gladly roll the dice on that scenario.

If the storm does bomb off the coast, is there still a major question of if it will be south of us or north of us?  I’ve seen FB and Twitter posts that imply the south (southern VA and NC border) is going to get hammered again.