I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[eurojosh]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah, he saw your post and decided what you said he said is what he was actually saying.

And what you're saying is, Boston is an actual place.  Or to put it more lyrically,

Boston: More than a feeling.

 

Ok I clearly need to go to sleep now.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

And what you're saying is, Boston is an actual place.  Or to put it more lyrically,

Boston: More than a feeling.

 

Ok I clearly need to go to sleep now.

Yeah get out of here. Hitch a ride.

[SlamSlam]

That's what I said he was saying!

This one again has not totally stabbed us in the heart/back and gutted us. On the other hand, has given us little pieces to be excited about but more reason to remain extremely cautious. I am in the all or nothing camp. Would like a heavy snowfall and some serious paste. Had snow tv today, don't need a 24 - 36 hour tease of that this upcoming week. Go big or go to Boston, again.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

Nice step towards a bigger(colder, snowier) event for the region IMO.

 

[SlamSlam]

Yeah get out of here. Hitch a ride.

My uncle lives in Boston. I am there a few times per year. Nice city.

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[SlamSlam]

Nice step towards a bigger(colder, snowier) event for the region IMO.

 

You could probably find a better location for those L's in a very technical discussion. That's a pretty prime location in my book though.

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[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SlamSlam said:

You could probably find a better location for those L's in a very technical discussion. That's a pretty prime location in my book though.

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Its workable. Lets see where it ends up. Still plenty of time.

[SlamSlam]

Its workable. Lets see where it ends up. Still plenty of time.

It's good to be in the game at this short of lead. This year, we have usually seen writing on the wall at least 72 - 96 hours prior. Last storm was 120 hours. If we wanted to believe that or not, well, that would be a different thread.

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[Ji]

Nice step towards a bigger(colder, snowier) event for the region IMO.

 

Euro big trend with wave 2. Good run

[SlamSlam]

Euro big trend with wave 2. Good run

Agreed. 12Z will be a big one and likely close to end solution.

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[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Actually, I was very wrong re snowfall amounts in my post - hr 78 first then hr 96 second

 

How the hell did you get it THAT wrong???

[BristowWx]

12k NAM 6z is south with wave 1. Don’t like h5 for wave 2 but NAM at range so toss.  

[BristowWx]

psu won’t like 12k.  Snow hole is over N. MD.  

[BristowWx]

3K looks primed at h5 for wave 2. Wave 1 looks south as well.  Anyone up?  Anyone?  Bueller?

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

12k NAM 6z is south with wave 1. Don’t like h5 for wave 2 but NAM at range so toss.  

Though some may disagree I actually thought the 06Z looked more primed for wave 2 then the 00Z. Just look up to hr 60 and the setup at that point. Developing low in N Georgia and eastern Tenn. Closed 500's just to it's NW. Trough configuration slightly better in my mind and the energy rotating around and through the trough is more concentrated. Though I would like to see better separation with the low off the coast it is coming in weaker which helps. After hr 60 it allows the surface low in Georgia to escape to the east out running ahead of the upper level support which screws everything up. Not sure I buy that especially when I see the 850's and 700's pretty much trying to stack with the 500's. Guess it is possible but considering we are talking the NAM at range it has to be considered that it may be off on the evolution past hr 60.

[BristowWx]

Good morning showme...I looked at it again...agree..I thought 3k looked primed as well for wave 2.  Let’s see what’s the hangover 6z GFS brings this morning.  

[dallen7908]

By 12Z Wed EPS gives DC approximately a 75% chance of > 1", 40%> 3", and 10%>6". Mason-Dixon line numbers are 75/50/30%. 

By 12Z Thu EPS gives DC approximately an 88% chance of >1", 60%>3", 36%>6", and 12%>12".  Corresponding numbers for M-D line are 82/58/36/14. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

3K looks primed at h5 for wave 2. Wave 1 looks south as well.  Anyone up?  Anyone?  Bueller?

The 3k is definitely trying. Like seeing the upper portion of the trough and the energy associated with it dropping down on the west side of the base of the trough/closed low. Getting a nice spin of energy going in that region. Like seeing low pressure forming, as we saw on the 12k, just to the SW of this upper level energy. So much going on here I hate to extrapolate but I think we would see a favorable outcome here if it was moved forward 24 hrs.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though some may disagree I actually thought the 06Z looked more primed for wave 2 then the 00Z. Just look up to hr 60 and the setup at that point. Developing low in N Georgia and eastern Tenn. Closed 500's just to it's NW. Trough configuration slightly better in my mind and the energy rotating around and through the trough is more concentrated. Though I would like to see better separation with the low off the coast it is coming in weaker which helps. After hr 60 it allows the surface low in Georgia to escape to the east out running ahead of the upper level support which screws everything up. Not sure I buy that especially when I see the 850's and 700's pretty much trying to stack with the 500's. Guess it is possible but considering we are talking the NAM at range it has to be considered that it may be off on the evolution past hr 60.

Yeah and I am not too interested in what the NAM shows verbatim at this range. It has the same idea now as the Euro and GFS. The first wave weakens and emphasis on the second becoming a bonafide coastal. It remains to be seen how close the track is, but I am totally fine with going for broke with the coastal. The lead always seemed like it was heading towards getting squashed as it moved eastward, and it wasn't going to be snow for most anyway. Heres to its timely death. With it out of the way, the second piece has a chance to develop. Now it appears we have a singular focus.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good morning showme...I looked at it again...agree..I thought 3k looked primed as well for wave 2.  Let’s see what’s the hangover 6z GFS brings this morning.  

Feel much better then I did yesterday morning in regards to our possible second storm. Problem we have here though is for the 2nd storm to be successful we are going to probably have to sacrifice somewhat on the first. Would love to see a 1, 2 punch but at this point that looks difficult to achieve.

eta: Good morning to you as well.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Feel much better then I did yesterday morning in regards to our possible second storm. Problem we have here though is for the 2nd storm to be successful we are going to probably have to sacrifice somewhat on the first. Would love to see a 1, 2 punch but at this point that looks difficult to achieve.

Agree. Weak or dying lead wave is going to allow the follower to develop in a position where it gives our region a chance.

If it plays out exactly like the 12k NAM, I am off to Rehoboth again, lol.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree. Weak or dying lead wave is going to allow the follower to develop in a position where it gives our region a chance.

If it plays out exactly like the 12k NAM, I am off to Rehoboth again, lol.

Hell, the way this winter has gone I might join you. Got room for another to bunk?  

[CAPE]

Just read Mt Holly AFD. They think part one results in a max 2-3" area of snow,  exact location still up in the air, but they still favor closer to the M-D line for now. Their Part 2 discussion below:

Part (2): Tuesday night-Wednesday The next wave of low pressure developing on the lee side of the southern Appalachians will deepen as it moves off the coast somewhere near the SC-NC coastal border. The 00Z models show varying degrees of phasing with southern and northern stream shortwave disturbances, resulting in amplification of the upstream trough over the Ohio Valley-Mid South regions. The extent of the phasing and how quickly it occurs will determine if this second coastal low heads out to sea, passing well to our S/E (only fringe impacts near the coast) or turns up the coast (more significant impacts, including strong winds and heavy wet snow). With support for both of these polar opposite solutions in the ensemble systems and with high uncertainty in the forecast, it`s still premature to rule out either scenario for the second part of this event (i.e., a complete miss or a high- impact nor`easter). We opted to take a conservative forecast approach that was somewhere in the middle (closer to the 00Z ECMWF and WPC guidance).

 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah and I am not too interested in what the NAM shows verbatim at this range. It has the same idea now as the Euro and GFS. The first wave weakens and emphasis on the second becoming a bonafide coastal. It remains to be seen how close the track is, but I am totally fine with going for broke with the coastal. The lead always seemed like it was heading towards getting squashed as it moved eastward, and it wasn't going to be snow for most anyway. Heres to its timely death. With it out of the way, the second piece has a chance to develop. Now it appears we have a singular focus.

Though I hate to totally discount the what we are seeing occur with the surface I think in this case it may be warranted, especially in regards to the second possible storm. All the models have been erratic when it comes to where it sees low pressure redeveloping. Think I will concentrate on the mid and upper levels for the time being because I have a feeling, especially when I see them in conjunction with each other, that they will ultimately determine where we see low pressure redevelop. Give me a great look through those levels and I will take my chances.

[BristowWx]

Now the problem looks like the trough is too east and doesn’t go negative soon enough.  On GFS.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Now the problem looks like the trough is too east and doesn’t go negative soon enough.  On GFS.

Energy at 500's just isn't syncing up on the GFS (second storm). Thought it looked a touch better though over the 00Z run but it still won't get it done with that look.

[rcflyermd68]

sounds like Mt Holly has done their job and gone conservative. 06Z  of GFS run seems  to confirm their judgment. Good judgment on their part

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now the problem looks like the trough is too east and doesn’t go negative soon enough.  On GFS.

Looks pretty similar to 0z, which is what I would expect. Wrt the developing coastal, the 12z runs really are gonna be huge I think.

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks pretty similar to 0z, which is what I would expect. Wrt the developing coastal, the 12z runs really are gonna be huge for SNE I think.

Fixed

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Fixed

Very possible, and it would shock no one here. The WxUSAF fail scenario might be playing out.