I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Woah there ICON

 

18z navgem was considering that option. Suddenly the gfs is on its own. I'm comfortable saying it's most likely wrong in more than one way

[mdhokie]

anywhere else to view CMC? TT is stuck at 18hr.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A lot of eps members had the look. 12k NAM was close and  the 3 k was heading there. But yea I would feel A lot better if the gfs was showing it.

Frustrating 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem looking good for wave 2

 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that and some ens support has my interest for sure. 

I think the gfs is too weak and quick with wave 1. Not wish casting. There compelling evidence through all guidance that the gfs is going to be wrong. I'm worried about temps on wave 1 in my hood. Conflicting signals adding up 

We're all thinking the same things here probably. The gfs is a mess. It's running the frontrunner out ahead of even it's dampening upper support. Then races the wave way off messing up everything behind it. And yes that's a thing it does erroneously sometimes. If the majority of guidance comes in looking different in that regard I think tossing the gfs is the way to go. I'd still feel better if the gfs was on our side too and deep down you all do too. We want all the guidance to show a flush hit. We all know there is always that chance the one bad model is right and we get screwed. But if the gfs is the odd man out given trends the other way today I would feel rather confident disregarding it. We will see with the gefs geps U.K. and euro packages yet to go. 

[ATreglown]

Just now, mdhokie said:

anywhere else to view CMC? TT is stuck at 18hr.

Same, was just about to post 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

anywhere else to view CMC? TT is stuck at 18hr.

Switch to regular precip panels. It smokes us in general 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was bad in that based on the gefs we kind of tossed the 18z op as a bad run. But this looks just like it so now it's harder to do that. And it wasn't much better yet we are another run closer. We expected/hoped for bigger improvement. This was marginally better. Yes the coastal did tuck in a bit more. It was a baby step. But not much of one. 

It was a step, man...and wave 2 is still there, and starting to trend better on other guidance...Now if the Euro also comes in with more wave 2 support...then we'll know the GFS may be off, lol

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Switch to regular precip panels. It smokes us in general 

H5 at 96 has a super tiny closed h5 contour in St. Marys county MD

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Omg cmc

Given the nam/cmc/icon plus gfs issues lately I'm inclined to think the gfs is the toss it run tonight. But obviously the U.K. and euro will have something to say about that. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, yoda said:

H5 at 96 has a super tiny closed h5 contour in St. Marys county MD

It's pretty much a best case scenario and seeing what I saw with the eps and even the 18z gefs makes me really start to consider the whole package again. 

[MD Snow]

CMC crushes pa and the NE.

[Ji]

Euro likes wave 1 the most...if it can continue to like wave 1 and like wave 2 lol....im playing guitar tomorrow at church at 9am 11 1 and 5pm. Gonna try get some divine intervention

[WeatherShak]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc does exactly what the good eps members showed. Almost to a tee 

Serious question.  When is the last time the CMC verified for a legit storm for us?  Thank you.  

[Bob Chill]

On 3/12/2018 at 1:11 PM, Ji said:

This will work out  because its actually going to be on the last day of winter or early spring. GGEM

 

GFS

 

Euro

For posterity. Yea, it's morphed since your first post but the end result is becoming similar again. If it breaks right then the ops picked up potential way out in time with this one. Blocking certainly plays a major role with that 

[87storms]

looking at the 0z cmc, i take back my albany comment.

[psuhoffman]

I need a cigarette after watching the cmc h5 loop. 

[yoda]

6 to 10 for Warenton to DC to Baltimore with over a foot just N and W of i95 on 00z CMC

[stormtracker]

Well damn..just saw the CMC.   So the GFS is so far on and isle of it's own?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I need a cigarette after watching the cmc h5 loop. 

Pass it down when you're done.  And I don't even smoke.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WeatherShak said:

Serious question.  When is the last time the CMC verified for a legit storm for us?  Thank you.  

When it's alone in the short or med range, rarely if ever. The cmc isn't really alone right now. There compelling evidence starting to build that a version of wave 2 producing is back on the table. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I need a cigarette after watching the cmc h5 loop. 

I'll raise you to a nice Cuban after seeing the closed off above St. Marys

[Chris78]

Cmc is a mauling. Has all the pieces playing nice.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Pass it down when you're done.  And I don't even smoke.

Me either 

[Amped]

CMC somehow merges streams a lot more than the GFS over the MS Valley at 72hrs.  Then closes off H5 over the apps and pivots everything up the cost. 

Will wait for the UKMET and EURO before I call the GFS suspect.  This does look a bit like it's DEC 2009 solution, where it didn't merge the streams and let everything escape.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Pass it down when you're done.  And I don't even smoke.

It's 2018. Vaping is where it's at for both types of smoking. 

Eta: I heard it from a friend 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

6 to 10 with over a foot just N and W.of i95 on 00z CMC

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's 2018. Vaping is where it's at for both types of smoking. 

Truth

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need a cigarette after watching the cmc h5 loop. 

Ha ha ha... If it had been earlier in the season I can only imagine the output on that. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Pretty colors for posterity. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC somehow merges streams a lot more than the GFS over the MS Valley at 72hrs.  Then closes off H5 over the apps and pivots everything up the cost. 

Will wait for the UKMET and EURO before I call the GFS suspect.  This does look a bit like it's DEC 2009 solution, where it didn't merge the streams and let everything escape.

It's very close to the 3k nam at h5 at 60 hours. Actually the 3k is even more amplified and going neutral tilt ahead of the cmc. 3k might have been a nuke had it gone out far enough. Icon also is close. But yes I'd like to get some love from the European contingent shortly. 

[Amped]

Here's the CMC changes from 12z at H5.