I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is heading towards another disaster run. It's racing the lead wave off too fast. I don't like where it's going, not leaving enough behind for wave 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

Nope, you're right... this run looks terrible for wave 2

[nj2va]

I don’t like the look of the trough and energy at 500. Not as sharp as 18z. 

[Chris78]

Icon is bringing wave 2 right up the coast

 

[stormtracker]

WEll, we gotta hope the GFS is a **** the bed run

[87storms]

the NS wave might catch up with that coastal though...i guess that's what we need to see for later frames or runs.

[Ji]

Gfs is heading towards another disaster run. It's racing the lead wave off too fast. I don't like where it's going, not leaving enough behind for wave 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

Isn't that a jb/gfs thing?

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, stormtracker said:

WEll, we gotta hope the GFS is a **** the bed run

At least til the Euro

[Maestrobjwa]

Now...is wave 2 not closer to the coast at 84 than 18z? Not a bad thing?...

[Ji]

WEll, we gotta hope the GFS is a **** the bed run

Gfs is the worst model in the past 2 weeks by far

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Icon is bringing wave 2 right up the coast

 

Yea I wish the gfs looked like the icon lol 

[MD Snow]

Icon has PSU’s 988mb off ocean city this run...lol

[yoda]

00z CMC likes NW VA, W MD to HGR through 78

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

No one ever said it was going to be easy

[87storms]

i don't think was a bad run.  it doesn't look worse to me.

[Amped]

GFS overruled by ICON and CMC

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is heading towards another disaster run. It's racing the lead wave off too fast. I don't like where it's going, not leaving enough behind for wave 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

Isn't that a jb/gfs thing?

Yes gfs sometimes has issues running lead waves off too much. But it's not a universal bias I've seen it right with that sometimes. Gfs has been struggling lately so maybe it's just off here. It's weaker with wave one then other guidance and it races it off leaving nothing to work with wave 2. Could be right could be wrong I'll wait for the rest of the 0z suite. Gefs won't make me feel better this time because last time the op and gefs disagreed the op won. Just worth noting that. 

[MD Snow]

CMC is way north with wave 1. Gets 6+ well into central pa. 

[Ji]

Ggem looking good for wave 2

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I wish the gfs looked like the icon lol 

A lot of eps members had the look. 12k NAM was close and  the 3 k was heading there. But yea I would feel A lot better if the gfs was showing it.

Frustrating 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

GFS overruled by ICON and CMC

Yea, that and some ens support has my interest for sure. 

I think the gfs is too weak and quick with wave 1. Not wish casting. There compelling evidence through all guidance that the gfs is going to be wrong. I'm worried about temps on wave 1 in my hood. Conflicting signals adding up 

[87storms]

if anything, i thought the 0z gfs was a little closer to the coast.  obviously we need to start seeing some shifts west with the trough, but i don't think it was a terrible run as in i don't think it trended worse.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

CMC is way north with wave 1. Gets 6+ well into central pa. 

CMC nails N MD with both waves.  Perfect HECS track on wave 2.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i don't think was a bad run.  it doesn't look worse to me.

It was bad in that based on the gefs we kind of tossed the 18z op as a bad run. But this looks just like it so now it's harder to do that. And it wasn't much better yet we are another run closer. We expected/hoped for bigger improvement. This was marginally better. Yes the coastal did tuck in a bit more. It was a baby step. But not much of one. 

[Ji]

Omg cmc

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, Amped said:

CMC nails N MD with both waves.  Perfect HECS track on wave 2.

Rain for the beltway?

[yoda]

As long as temps work... CMC is very nice 

[Bob Chill]

Cmc does exactly what the good eps members showed. Almost to a tee 

[Cobalt]

Woah there ICON

 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was bad in that based on the gefs we kind of tossed the 18z op as a bad run. But this looks just like it so now it's harder to do that. And it wasn't much better yet we are another run closer. We expected/hoped for bigger improvement. This was marginally better. Yes the coastal did tuck in a bit more. It was a baby step. But not much of one. 

yea, i think you're area is still in the game though.  if i was albany i probably wouldn't be tracking this.

[MD Snow]

cmc has 984mb slp off ocean city at hr 90.