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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, T. August said:

Perhaps I’m missing something but 12k looks about the same for those north of Baltimore. Drier than 18z but not too bad.

It does, but the rain snow line is literally a few miles south of me, which makes me nervous. If we can get a colder shift, we’d be good.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Where are you. I am on Manor road. We are in the same boat. 

I'm west of 83, and a few miles south of Oregon ridge. I think we have pretty similar climo, also similar elevation.

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

You’re in a good spot my man. North or south shifts, either way you’re in the game. I’m pulling for warning. 

I sure hope so. I'm cautiously optimistic but also prepared for disappointment since we're so used to it by now. But it would be awesome to see warning criteria happen.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

Out of 94 pages of posts.. Like 3 pages are worth the read. BTW.. I have not helped... Anyways, complications usually point to failure in the Mid Atlantic. I am not seeing anything that gives us much confidence yet and we are getting closer. Hopefully the GFS clears some things up but I also will not trust it. What a hard year. I see some snow for sure but I am not excited that this will be much.. 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, T. August said:

Perhaps I’m missing something but 12k looks about the same for those north of Baltimore. 

Just reread this sentence you wrote and look at a map of the extent of this subforum  lol.

Obviously the NAM is not a reason for conclusions past the short range. It’s also amusing, though, that some in the northern tier were getting negative posting that the first wave was headed towards missing them to the south based on day-4 runs.

 

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AdamHLG

AdamHLG

Posted
Posted
I sure hope so. I'm cautiously optimistic but also prepared for disappointment since we're so used to it by now. But it would be awesome to see warning criteria happen.
I'm with you guys here on Chestnut Ridge. We're in a good spot historically. We should score with this one so long as the thread is not pinned or placed in storm mode.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Just reread this sentence you wrote and look at a map of the extent of this subforum  lol.

Obviously the NAM is not a reason for conclusions past the short range. It’s also amusing, though, that some in the northern tier were getting negative posting that the first wave was headed towards missing them to the south based on 4-day runs.

 

Haha I guess I should have been more thoughtful with my post. My apologies 

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WhiteoutMD

WhiteoutMD

Posted
Posted
Out of 94 pages of posts.. Like 3 pages are worth the read. BTW.. I have not helped... Anyways, complications usually point to failure in the Mid Atlantic. I am not seeing anything that gives us much confidence yet and we are getting closer. Hopefully the GFS clears some things up but I also will not trust it. What a hard year. I see some snow for sure but I am not excited that this will be much.. 

Agree an average low with marginal temps not going to do it. We need a square hit and you can’t be on the edges of the best lift.


.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
3k nam looked like it was about to go boom with wave 2. Nice h5 at 60. 

The same 3k nam that nuked us last week at 18z lol

It was all by itself then. That always tells you something. A high res by itself with no support outside 48 hours is a toss away run. If nothing else moves towards this 3k run then toss it. But we don't know yet. It's worth noting the trend that's all. We will know soon if it has any support. It had plenty of support from gefs and EPS members last run. No other ops biting yet. Would like to see that change. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
Just now, nj2va said:

ICON doesn’t look like it’ll be as north as the NAM. 

Icon is continuing the "more consolidated" look trend. It's slower with wave 1 and doesn't run as much energy out leaving a system in a better spot to phase everything. Imho it's a good trend. Check out the new run vs same time last run. And it did the same jump 18z from 12z. 

IMG_4730.thumb.PNG.21501ea32a5b90eb570237dcc1604939.PNGIMG_4731.thumb.PNG.a4ddae5b3a95080228936efcd7dab7d1.PNG

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is heading towards another disaster run. It's racing the lead wave off too fast. I don't like where it's going, not leaving enough behind for wave 2. Hope I'm wrong. 

i can't tell yet lol.  looks better is some parts, not in others.

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