I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[stormtracker]

Woiuld be nice if we could get a global to show this instead of NAM fantasy range

[87storms]

I wouldn’t sleep on the first wave yet either. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

How can 6 hours between runs cause such chaos??!!  

No need for ledges... just wait for the Euro.  Bob has a good feeling.  It will all be okay.  And we will get a shellacking.  And Ji will get a HECS.  Nothing to worry about.  

Mesoscale models aren't designed for any lead longer than 48 hours and even then it's iffy. The high resolution and magnifying errors makes them poor tools 2+ day leads. The only consistent thing late in their runs is inconsistency. Nam could be right but if the gfs/euro disagree then it's easy to ignore. Even if its a smoking nam run, if the globals disagree then you have to toss all the digital snow into the recycle bin. 

[stormtracker]

Almost yall...just a hair too far south..but it gets snow into the area

[Fozz]

lol... this run has a hideous DC snow hole, taken literally.

In any case, a very interesting development with the second wave. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Whoa...that is even closer on the NAM! Huh...with the ressurection of the second wave on the other guidance.. ya gotta wonder if the NAM is a foreshadowing!

[TSSN+]

This looks about right. lol. DC snow hole. Yup. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Fozz said:

lol... this run has a hideous DC snow hole, taken literally.

Is there another NAM you are looking at?

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

This looks about right. lol. DC snow hole. Yup. 

Ah..12k...probably right

[nj2va]

I’d take my chances with this look.  

[Bob Chill]

I will say the 12k looks like the eps members that pop #2 but my confidence level of that bumped up somewhere between nothing and zero. 

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mesoscale models aren't designed for any lead longer than 48 hours and even then it's iffy. The high resolution and magnifying errors makes them poor tools 2+ day leads. The only consistent thing late in their runs is inconsistency. Nam could be right but if the gfs/euro disagree then it's easy to ignore. Even if its a smoking nam run, if the globals disagree then you have to toss all the digital snow into the recycle bin. 

The voice of reason!  Thanks!

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

lol... this run has a hideous DC snow hole, taken literally.

The trends have been good today tho overall.  Still needs work but there’s hints of hope now for that wave.  Just gotta see what happens 

[high risk]

NAM3 is a slightly colder and snowier look for much of the area with wave 1.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I wonder, is there feedback from the strong Atlantic ridge in February when everything kept busting NW? (meaning, in verification it wouldnt be as amplified)

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah..12k...probably right

Would it shock you? That’s the way this winter has gone. It’ll snow everywhere but here lol 

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I kinda want the first wave to be weak and die tbh

Did you buy your seat on the bus yet... I mean for you friend???

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

NAM3 is a slightly colder and snowier look for much of the area with wave 1.

Not sure what 3K you are using. But looks pretty rainy to me. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not sure what 3K you are using. But looks pretty rainy to me. 

He's saying relative to the lower res NAMs

[87storms]

Like bob said I think you just gotta look at trends past 48 for the nam and overall I thought they were pretty decent.

[Warm Nose]

[TSSN+]

Just now, 87storms said:

Like bob said I think you just gotta look at trends past 48 for the nam and overall I thought they were pretty decent.

Hope is riding on the euro 

[Mordecai]

The reason for the DC snowhole in the 12k is because of UHI right?

[Interstate]

The 0z NAM would cause a civil war

[Interstate]

Just now, Mordecai said:

The reason for the DC snowhole in the 12k is because of UHI right?

No. Rain with the first wave and just missing the second wave

[Chris78]

NAM 3k looks primed for the second wave.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's also pretty rare in the 2000s that you would have 2 big hits so close like this.. you see this in a lot of classic northeast snowstorms before the 90s (Kocin book)

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

NAM3 is a slightly colder and snowier look for much of the area with wave 1.

why do we keep seeing strong lows of the coast and no precip being thrown back? 

[Scraff]

I don’t know even know what wave to root for anymore.  Guess it doesn’t matter as long I’m not waving goodbye to our chance. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Ok, I know a lot of "DC snow hole LULZ" stuff get posted, but my god, that NAM snow hole is freaking hilarious. 3 inches in all directions of DC like 25 miles out.