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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

No way sir.  This is far from settled and the rug can still be pulled.  Ensemble runs look good but the op runs have a lot of weight 72 hours out and they don’t look amazing at this point.  I vote we wait until Sunday night.  That said I have no real say in this  so whatever Randy says. 

I agree

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

No way sir.  This is far from settled and the rug can still be pulled.  Ensemble runs look good but the op runs have a lot of weight 72 hours out and they don’t look amazing at this point.  I vote we wait until Sunday night.  That said I have no real say in this  so whatever Randy says. 

i think monday morning seems reasonable, if we get to that point.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Agreed!  I'm not far from you just west of Fairfax City.  

I agree with this too. I may technically be in the "northern" part of Fairfax County, but I'd rather not be on the southern fringe of the first wave, unless wave 2 blows up

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I agree with this too. I may technically be in the "northern" part of Fairfax County, but I'd rather not be on the southern fringe of the first wave, unless wave 2 blows up

We have had very little this year in this part of the county.  We have been in the abominable hole.  Even my parents in Southern MD have had more snow than us this year.  And last year.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...this winter has been so deprived of snow that we barely expect to get within 24-36 hours anymore, Iol (I've almost forgotten what that feels like!)

lol well we're still kinda relying on trends.  not all the models are showing flush hits with either system yet.

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The second wave forms a coastal to the south in NC while the first wave tracks NE. Pretty much a 1-2 punch. A lot of EPS members have a 1-2 punch now but many of them are light QPF with wave 1 or 2 so it won't work as a double hit However, the ones that do hit right have some impressive QPF. This meteo shows it much better than snow maps. Focus on the 1"+ qpf members that stretch it out over 3 days. No too shabby. Much more interesting for #2 now even though it's still a minority. 

 

Thanks...much appreciated. So, I would assume more separation between the 2 wave so the second has time to build heights in front?

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been around long enough to know that we’re a superstitious bunch.

Why in the heck would anyone even CONSIDER storm mode when all it has done is bring us misery and New England snow this winter?

Well...at least this time...we know that even in the worst case scenario, New England won't be getting this one, lol 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been around long enough to know that we’re a superstitious bunch.

Why in the heck would anyone even CONSIDER storm mode when all it has done is bring us misery and New England snow this winter?

Well...at least this time...we know that even in the worst case scenario, New England won't be getting this one, lol 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed guys, atmospheric physics, advanced calculus and gas laws will definitely change if it sees storm mode activated.   God knows if the trof was going to sharpen and then saw a pinned thread on a weather forum 5000 feet below it, it would flatten out immediately.  

Hasn't that already happened 4 or 5 times this year??  

Lol

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I’m pretty much at every man for themself at this point.  I’m rooting for a DC/NVA jackpot even if that means the northern tier is fringed.  Snow is serious business. ;)

Just stay in MCHenry and that way you can root for a northern track with the bullseye...:P

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed guys, atmospheric physics, advanced calculus and gas laws will definitely change if it sees storm mode activated.   God knows if the trof was going to sharpen and then saw a pinned thread on a weather forum 5000 feet below it, it would flatten out immediately.  

LOL!

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Don't even joke about that.  Last time they weren't supposed to get in on it... and look what happened. 

But this is a different kind of setup than the previous three? (And has any model run the last 3-4 days shown them getting anything? Even the crappier model runs didn't show this even reaching them (plus with the blocking that is forecast, I highly doubt it reaches that latitude)

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The March 1958 blizzard  was just Incredible . I just might sell my prized Buick GN to experience 4.00 inches of QPF in the form of snow ( 2 days of  parachutes falling :lmao:)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



From Maryland Winters Site: 

March 19-21, 1958: A slow moving nor'easter struck rather late in the season in 1958 causing huge amounts of property damage. Over a foot of heavy wet snow took a heavy toll on trees, shrubs, television antennas, power and communication lines. Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties was hardest hit. In Baltimore City, the storm began as rain during the day of the 19th but changed to heavy wet snow for the slushy commute home. It also changed to snow quickly to the northwest as the ground gained in elevation and the temperature fall. The Mount Washington section of Baltimore received 24 to 30 inches of snow. This section is just a 100 feet higher than the rest of the city. On Parr Ridge in Mount Airy, Carroll County, a weather reporter measued 33 inches of snow from the storm (4.03 inches liquid equivalent). Other reports included 29 inches at Parkton, 24.5 inches at Bentley Springs, 23 inches at Conowingo Dam and in Delaware, 27 inches at Middletown. For Westminister, 30 inches from this storm combined with two snows earlier in the month for a March snow total of 42 inches! Hagerstown saw 16 inches with areas to the west receiving considerably less. The Lower Eastern Shore saw 3 inches with areas to the north like Denton receiveing 13 inches. 

image.png

29 here, wow, that’d be one hell of a March storm 

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I’m pretty much at every man for themself at this point.  I’m rooting for a DC/NVA jackpot even if that means the northern tier is fringed.  Snow is serious business. ;)

Just stay in MCHenry and that way you can root for a northern track with the bullseye...:P

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Agreed guys, atmospheric physics, advanced calculus and gas laws will definitely change if it sees storm mode activated.   God knows if the trof was going to sharpen and then saw a pinned thread on a weather forum 5000 feet below it, it would flatten out immediately.  


Of course it does. Weather Forum Physics was one of my favorite classes in college, right after Model Madness 404 and Thermo


.
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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Do you get upslope in your location?

Yeah we do; I took the week off work so I’ve been up since Tuesday...had upslope snow showers Tuesday until Thursday...5-6” total.  Davis/Canaan had 3x that total this week which is pretty incredible.  I’m at about 100” for the season here which is just below the avg which is about 110”.  

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah we do; I took the week off work so I’ve been up since Tuesday...had upslope snow showers Tuesday until Thursday...5-6” total.  Davis/Canaan had 3x that total this week which is pretty incredible.  I’m at about 100” for the season here which is just below climo.  

Nice...I'm slowly nudging the wife for a place out that way.  Wont be for several years...but, I will certainly do my research on location.  Went to school at WVU and know that the upslope can be awesome out there....sunny in Morgantown and sunny in Frederick but the drive home was a white knuckler!

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Indeed.. and the thing is ...we are due for a March Hecs here . It's been 25 years.  Here's to hoping :pepsi:

I think we see something decent out of this system. Unless it all goes south of course. 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Nice...I'm slowly nudging the wife for a place out that way.  Wont be for several years...but, I will certainly do my research on location.  Went to school at WVU and know that the upslope can be awesome out there....sunny in Morgantown and sunny in Frederick but the drive home was a white knuckler!

It was pretty incredible driving here on Tuesday...went from full sun in Frostburg to snow as soon as I crossed into Garrett County.  It goes without saying, but its a completely different climate here than even just east in Alleghany County, MD.  Makes being a weather fanatic that much more fun given the climate here compared to home!

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