I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[pasnownut]

From my view we are seeing the compromise from yesterday’s euro south and gfs north camps. 18z sorta shows that. I said in my other forum that my guess was tonight’s runs show some nice solutions that will make weenies tingle. Starting to hone in on the potential that the pattern shows. Looking forward to the overnights. Gut says some will have hangovers from more than green beer. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs is yelling at us to put away the razor blades and flush the pills. 

Don't look now but there are also a lot of Day 7-12 hits, some big ones lol. EPS showed hints too. This probably isn't our last track. Not sure if that's good or bad but this blocking regime isn't letting Winter go down easy. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't look now but there are also a lot of Day 7-12 hits, some big ones lol. EPS showed hints too. This probably isn't our last track. Not sure if that's good or bad but this blocking regime isn't letting Winter go down easy. 

Can't imagine how amazing this would feel if met winter was a good one. We'd be just adding on the stats for this year.

If anything, this extended tracking period (basically mid November to Late March) will make the offseason easier. Probably even more sucky to have a winter that has a tracking period only from like Late December to early February. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I like seeing this northwest cluster on the Eps for round 2 . The bomb scenerio is still alive .

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Ah, just a little more northeast...getting close!

[Scraff]

Been out dealing with some sad family issues today. How’s our “storm”?  I need some good news this evening... badly. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, Scraff said:

Been out dealing with some sad family issues today. How’s our “storm”?  I need some good news this evening... badly. 

18z GEFS should cure your blues. 

[WeathermanB]

Still a lot of spread for ensembles day 3-4. Me thinks we'll get something amazing out of this.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Been out dealing with some sad family issues today. How’s our “storm”?  I need some good news this evening... badly. 

Sorry to hear--praying for you sir/mam!

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

18z GEFS should cure your blues. 

I’ll check it now. Thank you.   

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I like seeing this northwest cluster on the Eps for round 2 . The bomb scenerio is still alive .

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

The EPS members that hit with wave 2 are pretty much a continuous event. There's a lull of sorts but they all have a long drawn out progression. Here's one of the sweet ones for #2

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The EPS members that hit with wave 2 are pretty much a continuous event. There's a lull of sorts but they all have a long drawn out progression. Here's one of the sweet ones for #2

 

What does it take to achieve that?  Slower lead wave?...Stronger?

 

ETA: lol March

 

[WeathermanB]

I like the idea of the 18z NAM. Wave 1 slows down and dumps 12'' of 10:1 ratios on northeastern side of MD to NJ. At least the other models have 2 waves, so the NAM isn't on an island by any means. But i am skeptical on the snow totals, this could be overdone imo.

[ErinInTheSky]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The EPS members that hit with wave 2 are pretty much a continuous event. There's a lull of sorts but they all have a long drawn out progression. Here's one of the sweet ones for #2

 

That's kind of like the original Euro mega hits we were getting.

[Cobalt]

 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The March 1958 blizzard  was just Incredible . I just might sell my prized Buick GN to experience 4.00 inches of QPF in the form of snow ( 2 days of  parachutes falling )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From Maryland Winters Site: 

March 19-21, 1958: A slow moving nor'easter struck rather late in the season in 1958 causing huge amounts of property damage. Over a foot of heavy wet snow took a heavy toll on trees, shrubs, television antennas, power and communication lines. Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties was hardest hit. In Baltimore City, the storm began as rain during the day of the 19th but changed to heavy wet snow for the slushy commute home. It also changed to snow quickly to the northwest as the ground gained in elevation and the temperature fall. The Mount Washington section of Baltimore received 24 to 30 inches of snow. This section is just a 100 feet higher than the rest of the city. On Parr Ridge in Mount Airy, Carroll County, a weather reporter measued 33 inches of snow from the storm (4.03 inches liquid equivalent). Other reports included 29 inches at Parkton, 24.5 inches at Bentley Springs, 23 inches at Conowingo Dam and in Delaware, 27 inches at Middletown. For Westminister, 30 inches from this storm combined with two snows earlier in the month for a March snow total of 42 inches! Hagerstown saw 16 inches with areas to the west receiving considerably less. The Lower Eastern Shore saw 3 inches with areas to the north like Denton receiveing 13 inches. 

just make sure you have a backup generator.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The March 1958 blizzard  was just Incredible . I just might sell my prized Buick GN to experience 4.00 inches of QPF in the form of snow ( 2 days of  parachutes falling )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From Maryland Winters Site: 

March 19-21, 1958: A slow moving nor'easter struck rather late in the season in 1958 causing huge amounts of property damage. Over a foot of heavy wet snow took a heavy toll on trees, shrubs, television antennas, power and communication lines. Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties was hardest hit. In Baltimore City, the storm began as rain during the day of the 19th but changed to heavy wet snow for the slushy commute home. It also changed to snow quickly to the northwest as the ground gained in elevation and the temperature fall. The Mount Washington section of Baltimore received 24 to 30 inches of snow. This section is just a 100 feet higher than the rest of the city. On Parr Ridge in Mount Airy, Carroll County, a weather reporter measued 33 inches of snow from the storm (4.03 inches liquid equivalent). Other reports included 29 inches at Parkton, 24.5 inches at Bentley Springs, 23 inches at Conowingo Dam and in Delaware, 27 inches at Middletown. For Westminister, 30 inches from this storm combined with two snows earlier in the month for a March snow total of 42 inches! Hagerstown saw 16 inches with areas to the west receiving considerably less. The Lower Eastern Shore saw 3 inches with areas to the north like Denton receiveing 13 inches. 

Can't imagine if that happened in modern times with a forum like this. I'd imagine we'd be like pigs in slop, with at least 5 separate OBS threads. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What does it take to achieve that?  Slower lead wave?...Stronger?

 

The second wave forms a coastal to the south in NC while the first wave tracks NE. Pretty much a 1-2 punch. A lot of EPS members have a 1-2 punch now but many of them are light QPF with wave 1 or 2 so it won't work as a double hit However, the ones that do hit right have some impressive QPF. This meteo shows it much better than snow maps. Focus on the 1"+ qpf members that stretch it out over 3 days. No too shabby. Much more interesting for #2 now even though it's still a minority. 

 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs is yelling at us to put away the razor blades and flush the pills. 

Yeah, I just saw it.  That's pretty amazing given what we've been through so far

[WeathermanB]

Given the positive overall trends, Storm mode thread should be activated soon. Depends if the trends keep going more and more positive, we'll wait and see.

[Jandurin]

Why would you want storm mode

 

 

[H2O]

North trend can stop, thank you. I don’t want it

[WeathermanB]

1 minute ago, Jandurin said:

Why would you want storm mode

 

 

umm.. Don't you already know the answer to that?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Given the positive overall trends, Storm mode thread should be activated soon. Depends if the trends keep going more and more positive, we'll wait and see.

I'd wait to make sure of the "more positive"! Perhaps by 12z tomorrow if/when things remain good?

[psurulz]

No storm mode yet...this thread has kept hope alive!

[nj2va]

For the most part, we’re doing fine without storm mode. Practice some self restraint and we’re fine without it.  

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Given the positive overall trends, Storm mode thread should be activated soon. Depends if the trends keep going more and more positive, we'll wait and see.

No way sir.  This is far from settled and the rug can still be pulled.  Ensemble runs look good but the op runs have a lot of weight 72 hours out and they don’t look amazing at this point.  I vote we wait until Sunday night.  That said I have no real say in this  so whatever Randy says. 

[snowmagnet]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

North trend can stop, thank you. I don’t want it

Agreed!  I'm not far from you just west of Fairfax City.  

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The second wave forms a coastal to the south in NC while the first wave tracks NE. Pretty much a 1-2 punch. A lot of EPS members have a 1-2 punch now but many of them are light QPF with wave 1 or 2 so it won't work as a double hit However, the ones that do hit right have some impressive QPF. This meteo shows it much better than snow maps. Focus on the 1"+ qpf members that stretch it out over 3 days. No too shabby. Much more interesting for #2 now even though it's still a minority. 

 

yea i like seeing the step up in precip over the course of 2 days.  it tells me that wave 2 is in play.  still need some better trends tonight/tomorrow with that one.

[BristowWx]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Agreed!  I'm not far from you just west of Fairfax City.  

Follow that line west 15 miles and there is my back yard. Let’s keep this where it’s at. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psurulz said:

No storm mode yet...this thread has kept hope alive!

Yeah, it feels like a special thread, lol Keep it going!