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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Trough goes negative sooner for wave 2.  That’s a significant trend.

As I watched the evolution at 500, I totally thought this run was going to do it.  I’d be curious to see how GEFS responds (knowing it’ll follow the OP but I’m curious if it looks even better than the OP).  

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

As I watched the evolution at 500, I totally thought this run was going to do it.  I’d be curious to see how GEFS responds (knowing it’ll follow the OP but I’m curious if it looks even better than the OP).  

I don’t think wave 1 is done either but wave 2 has more boom potential for sure. Large high pressure in place.  It’s close for both.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I'm rooting for whatever puts down snow in my yard. But I know you mean what's our best bet. I honestly have no idea. Right now we're stuck half way in between.

What we want is more energy concentrated in one wave. If wave one was strong enough it lower heights enough on the coast and that would pull the next system in and become one amplified storm. That was those 20" euro solutions days ago. 

If wave 1 doesn't get it done then we want a more amplified wave 2 that can cut off and pull all that diffused energy meandering through the trough together. But if wave 1 isn't going to be the focus it needs to weaken and get out. 

Wave 1 has sped up. That makes a disconnect from wave 2. Harder to phase when it's separated more. Plus it's running into the blocking before it relaxes as much and it's outrunning the trough instead of waiting to amplify with it. Our nightmare scenario is exactly what the gfs just did. Dampening wave 1 is weak and pathetic but still just strong enough to wreck wave 2. Our dream is a nam solution where wave 1 is amplified and slows and everything eventually phases into it. Some EPS members do that too. Other in between options are a moderate hit wave 1 and wave 2 miss. Or wave 1 completely shears out and wave 2 amplifies. 

If all these competing vorts split the energy and don't phase we will lose. They will all get squashed by the confluence. We need that confluence. But we also need a strong enough wave south of us to press and bully into that confluence. That's over simplifying things but it works. Nina sucks because with a dead stj it's hard to get southern waves with enough juice and oomph to bully north into confluence or suppressive flow when we have it. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm rooting for whatever puts down snow in my yard. But I know you mean what's our best bet. I honestly have no idea. Right now we're stuck half way in between.

What we want is more energy concentrated in one wave. If wave one was strong enough it lower heights enough on the coast and that would pull the next system in and become one amplified storm. That was those 20" euro solutions days ago. 

If wave 1 doesn't get it done then we want a more amplified wave 2 that can cut off and pull all that diffused energy meandering through the trough together. But if wave 1 isn't going to be the focus it needs to weaken and get out. 

Wave 1 has sped up. That makes a disconnect from wave 2. Harder to phase when it's separated more. Plus it's running into the blocking before it relaxes as much and it's outrunning the trough instead of waiting to amplify with it. Our nightmare scenario is exactly what the gfs just did. Dampening wave 1 is weak and pathetic but still just strong enough to wreck wave 2. Our dream is a nam solution where wave 1 is amplified and slows and everything eventually phases into it. Some EPS members do that too. Other in between options are a moderate hit wave 1 and wave 2 miss. Or wave 1 completely shears out and wave 2 amplifies. 

If all these competing vorts split the energy and don't phase we will lose. They will all get squashed by the confluence. We need that confluence. But we also need a strong enough wave south of us to press and bully into that confluence. That's over simplifying things but it works. Nina sucks because with a dead stj it's hard to get southern waves with enough juice and oomph to bully north into confluence or suppressive flow when we have it. 

Man...we gonna be doin' a lot of sweatin' the next 3-4 days! It's just so close...but this winter, you can't trust much of anything. But, we in it now...time to ride to wherever it's going! As always, thanks for the write-up!

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm rooting for whatever puts down snow in my yard. But I know you mean what's our best bet. I honestly have no idea. Right now we're stuck half way in between.

What we want is more energy concentrated in one wave. If wave one was strong enough it lower heights enough on the coast and that would pull the next system in and become one amplified storm. That was those 20" euro solutions days ago. 

If wave 1 doesn't get it done then we want a more amplified wave 2 that can cut off and pull all that diffused energy meandering through the trough together. But if wave 1 isn't going to be the focus it needs to weaken and get out. 

Wave 1 has sped up. That makes a disconnect from wave 2. Harder to phase when it's separated more. Plus it's running into the blocking before it relaxes as much and it's outrunning the trough instead of waiting to amplify with it. Our nightmare scenario is exactly what the gfs just did. Dampening wave 1 is weak and pathetic but still just strong enough to wreck wave 2. Our dream is a nam solution where wave 1 is amplified and slows and everything eventually phases into it. Some EPS members do that too. Other in between options are a moderate hit wave 1 and wave 2 miss. Or wave 1 completely shears out and wave 2 amplifies. 

If all these competing vorts split the energy and don't phase we will lose. They will all get squashed by the confluence. We need that confluence. But we also need a strong enough wave south of us to press and bully into that confluence. That's over simplifying things but it works. Nina sucks because with a dead stj it's hard to get southern waves with enough juice and oomph to bully north into confluence or suppressive flow when we have it. 

i don't know if wave 1 weakened so much as it just notched south a bit.  the precip coverage/maxes were similar, just a bit south (maybe slightly weaker, but hard to tell).  wave 2 definitely bumped up north a bit, but it's still far enough away to where it's still a bust here.  

i think wave 1 strengh-wise (the overrunning part) seems to be starting a trend, just not sure where it will end up and it could be like that march bust a few years back where central va jackpotted due to rates.  wave 2 definitely has more potential to be a biggie, but still too far south.  based off of today's models, i'm sure many will be checking in between guinness calls for the 0z's.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jandurin said:
2 minutes ago, nj2va said:
50% chance of C-2”, 25% rain, 25% 2”+.  Certainly going out on a limb with that forecast.  emoji38.png

They should've waited until tomorrow 12z

Yeah, this thing ain't resolved yet...12z tomorrow definitely would've been a better time (And even that might be a bit early given this setup!)

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

Now, I'm gonna totally go out on a limb here.... @stormtracker You commented that the H5 looked better (despite that crappy solution below), right? I'm wondering if what we saw at 18z is the GFS making some kind of a switch to an even better (or at least more organized?) solution than before...(wasn't wave 2 already starting to come back at 12z?) I don't know how models work, but...I'm just wondering...

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I went out on an unusual limb and made a definitive call with the last 2 euro runs and got it right. I'll do the same with the gfs. 0z will erase the suicidal tendencies that 18z just unearthed. 

Def agree.  I would go with the Euro though ;)

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I went out on an unusual limb and made a definitive call with the last 2 euro runs and got it right. I'll do the same with the gfs. 0z will erase the suicidal tendencies that 18z just unearthed. 

That's exactly where I'm at with this...18z feels like the in-between step to something else (probably, hopefully better!)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Def agree.  I would go with the Euro though ;)

Our region can do well with these laterally moving deals. There are many similar stripes in the past. I mean yea, it can fail south. I'm not saying that is off the table but in this specific case it sure doesn't feel like one of those. We're right in the range where missing north and/or all rain punches my yard right in the gonads.  Sure doesn't feel like one of those either. So here we are...chewing on an underwhelming 18z gfs run inside of 3 days. When haven't we with ANY storm in the past (hit or miss)? 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our region can do well with these laterally moving deals. There are many similar stripes in the past. I mean yea, it can fail south. I'm not saying that is off the table but in this specific case it sure doesn't feel like one of those. We're right in the range where missing north and/or all rain punches my yard right in the gonads.  Sure doesn't feel like one of those either. So here we are...chewing on an underwhelming 18z gfs run inside of 3 days. When haven't we with ANY storm in the past (hit or miss)? 

Just Jan 2016...lol Oh how fortunate we were then to just have a totally smooth ride to epicness! But this...par for the course when it comes to tracking in the MA!!

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