I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[SnowGolfBro]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You do?  I don't.  I mean, we are on a weather board though so I figured it was prudent to discuss a weather model.

It is prudent. The NAM has value but my point was i want to see if the other models trend toward it or if it is on an island.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It is prudent. The NAM has value but my point was i want to see if the other models trend toward it or if it is on an island.

Agreed

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, psurulz said:

PSU,is that from the earlier Euro run?  If so, we've already decided that it's e39 and winter is over.

E39 is ok. I get about 15" but I get 30 on e18. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs coming in a bit south less amped again so far. Hope that changes in future panels. 

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs coming in a bit south less amped again so far. Hope that changes in future panels. 

If that is not thread the needle then I don't know what is. This winter is at home in the dustbin of history. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

Yup. Wave one is a complete meh.  Definitely not NAM like

[ErinInTheSky]

Yuck at the GFS’s front end.

 

Looks like we have a good old fashioned model war even to 66h.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

Gfs is garbage anyways. Why anyone cares what that model shows shocks me. 

[stormtracker]

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

I was going to say the same thing look at the H5 at 72

[WeathermanB]

540 line a little farther north. Ugh.

[stormtracker]

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

[psuhoffman]

Wave one is a total bust on gfs. Too weak to really do much for anyone. But I see definite improvement with wave 2. More ridging in front. Vort 2/3 more in tandem. More amplified. It might not get it done but it's an improvement at 72. 

[TSSN+]

I’d be using any model but the gfs right now. 

[T. August]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

I’m trying to learn, is the trough taking on a negative appearance at 78hrs?

[87storms]

wave 1 lacks the Ns interaction so it ends up being hit/miss. Need to be near that vort max (tbd).  Wave 2 has better ingredients for a larger event imo.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

I’m trying to learn, is the trough taking on a negative appearance at 78hrs?

Yes

[WeathermanB]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Wave one is a total bust on gfs. Too weak to really do much for anyone. But I see definite improvement with wave 2. More ridging in front. Vort 2/3 more in tandem. More amplified. It might not get it done but it's an improvement at 72. 

Whoops, forgot to brush the dust off the supercomputer. A little interference, but that's all.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ah man! Wave 2 is SO close....c'mon baby, you can do it, lol

[stormtracker]

Not going to get it done this run, but it's better.    The funny thing is the GFS shows we could get 0 from both waves.   Appropriate end to this winter.

[87storms]

Trough goes negative sooner for wave 2.  That’s a significant trend.

[ErinInTheSky]

Right after the Euro had its best run in a while too.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

So what, are we back to rootin' for wave 2? Eh, as Bob said...marry no solution until at LEAST 72 hours (given this setup, might wanna wait til Monday, lol)

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

540 line a little farther north. Ugh.

If that second wave comes together temps would crash as heights fall. We need the ridging in front to get it up here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

You used an exclamation point...which means you feel a little better about things overall! Lol

[87storms]

I guess it’s not a trend with 1 run but that low is much closer to the coast for wave 2.  

[TSSN+]

All the models look decent except gfs which is about exactly what I’d want to see. GFS worst model out there for the last like 2-3 months. It did a great job last storm.... 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So what, are we back to rootin' for wave 2? Eh, as Bob said...marry no solution until at LEAST 72 hours (given this setup, might wanna wait til Monday, lol)

I’m not. Wave one and 4-8 would be awesome. Hoping for the second and whiffing on both would suck. And we’ve lost big time in similar setups.