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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

NAM is out of range right?

Well if more than 96 hours or so is out of range for the global models, why would the NAM at 72 hours be out of range? 

EDIT: We've seen the NAM change too much after say.. 48 hours, so NAM right now is out of range because it's near the end of the run.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wave 1 precip mean is south of the op but u and I are in the .6+ contour. 1" is near EZF. The mean paints more of an insurance policy to the south as opposed to a liability to the north. I like that part. Op supercedes the ens at this point anyways but the biggrst risk for our yards is clearly rain/too north. Eps puts me at ease. 

Wave 2 is unconventional in general because we just don't normally do well with tight spacing like this with followups but the chance for amplification is no doubt slightly higher this run than the previous. 

Amazing we're only about 45 miles apart as the crow flies but your worried it goes north and I'm worried it stays south. Part of that is a function of how relatively narrow the significant (say 4"+) snows are likely to be with wave 1. With a shearing system entering confluence the heavy precip in the cold air is likely only a 50 mile wide area. If you get crushed I probably don't. That sucks.

If we can somehow resurect the idea of a coastal redevelopment with a closed upper low we could all win. It was a step back towards that after it was all but dead last night. But we still need it more amplified there. 

The long range is crazy. This winter just won't die. If we don't score a win it's intent to tease and torture us to the absolute maximum.

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
Posted

3 chances: 

EPS snow chances for DC area / Mason-Dixon Line north of DC 

by 12Z Tuesday:    26/42% > 1"         02/12% > 3"         0/0% > 6"   0/0% > 12"

by 12Z Wed:         68/74% > 1"          34/52% > 3"        12/34% >6"   0/6% > 12"

by 12z Thu:          72/78% > 1"          48/54% > 3"         28/38% >6"  12/16% > 12" 

by 12z Sun:          80/82% > 1"          48/60% > 3"         32/44% > 6"  12/22% > 12"   0/2% > 24" 

 

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted

I also like the 18z NAM... doesn't go so absurd with snowfall IMBY unlike the 12z run today. Not safe to say that we actually pull out that much snow, because of the 10:1 ratio assumption. Ratios could very well be higher, if more cold air comes in. 

Best bet is that the ratios are probably gonna be 8:1 to 10:1. This winter really doesn't wanna obey climo right now.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Overall 12z runs have been kind for DC....timing is pretty ideal and rates should be good.  Would love a degree or two cooler though. ;)

As you alluded to...it's all about the rates! In the absence of advection, and assuming we've wetbulbed, any additional cooling will have to come from the heavier rates (melting term).  

It can happen folks, even during the day (not ideal obviously). Recall that southern VA into NC got widespread 2-4" during the day with the last system. Temps never got below 33 for some, yet the rates were so good that even the streets by 3-4 pm were starting to cave. If it can happen there last week, it can happen up here a week later.

One thing I recall from the March 29, 1984 storm along with the St. Patrick's Day snow 4 years ago today -- the rates can overcome the sun angle until about 10 am; after that we can still accumulate on unpaved surfaces (though below, sometimes well below 10-1), however not so much on the pavement.  If we can get the best rates before 13-14Z, I'm good ;)

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