I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Cobalt]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes this can happen, esp with the 850 temps right around 0c as depicted.

This might be your best ever post.

I agree

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Winters where blocking like this sets in between dec 15 and feb 15 is when we get a big winter. Shame this came so late. But better late then never it's fun tracking at least. Been a crazy ride this month. 

It really has been. Don't remember a March where we've had snow fall in the air this often or have been tracking threats this often. 

[BlizzardNole]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Winters where blocking like this sets in between dec 15 and feb 15 is when we get a big winter. Shame this came so late. But better late then never it's fun tracking at least. Been a crazy ride this month. 

Well we just had two VERY warm Februarys in a row (+8.6  and +6.2 at Dulles) so I figure we are due for a biiiiig block next Feb. 

MAN that Euro run has some heavy QPF so close SE of many -- let's hope for a slow N trend.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

guys...Ukie Looks  wet. I like it

Glass half empty

It's been the most amped though and is trending the wrong way. I'm fringed now and I was in 1.75 qpf last run. 

Glass half full

the bleeding has stopped. Euro trended north with wave 1. Maybe we still can get a warning level event from that. Maybe the nam scores the coup and that amps up again. We're at least close to something good if things break our way in the end. 

[Jandurin]

still with a chance at NAM range is good enough for me

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'm more worried about the time, than the surface temps.  What time is the precip onset?

Middle of the night Monday night. It is actually perfect timing for a March event.

[Amped]

Euro starting something big day 8. May start as rain but that looks like a possible hecs

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Middle of the night Monday night. It is actually perfect timing for a March event.

It’s also good if you don’t like seeing the snow fall

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

What are you talking about?

As the blocking breaks a pv lobe rotates down suppressing the pattern again and creating a threat another wave or two produces frozen. It's really there in the ggem, wave 1 is on the gfs. Their all trending that way. Don't be shocked if this isn't the last threat we track. Not sure I want more but I'll track them if they come. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Middle of the night Monday night. It is actually perfect timing for a March event.

Middle of the night? Gotta love the--I'll take that anytime in March!!

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Middle of the night Monday night. It is actually perfect timing for a March event.

Good the hear.  Thanks!

[Jebman]

We ARE going to get shellacked by snow, soon and VERY soon.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

As the blocking breaks a pv lobe rotates down suppressing the pattern again and creating a threat another wave or two produces frozen. It's really there in the ggem, wave 1 is on the gfs. Their all trending that way. Don't be shocked if this isn't the last threat we track. Not sure I want more but I'll track them if they come. 

Let's track these threats into May!

My hope is that this March (hopeful) storm is similar to March 2013 (sorry, DC crew) and is (somehow) a prelude to another stretch of weather as through 2014.  The best stretch of weather in my lifetime.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We ARE going to get shellacked by snow, soon and VERY soon.

There's a gospel song that goes like that...lol

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw enough on the Euro to keep me invested in another days worth of runs for the possible big daddy coastal. As far as the initial (first storm) it looks good for for DC through Balt as long as temps cooperate which might be a touch iffy regardless of what the snowfall maps are showing.

This is where I am.  Today kept me in. I would be really excited if I was somewhere with a bit of elevation in northern VA. We need a 50 mile north trend to get the big totals up here.  Certainly doable. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro starting something big day 8. May start as rain but that looks like a possible hecs

Yea I'm not shocked. I saw things trending towards a bigger amplification later. As this trough trends weaker it's setting up a bigger dig later. Essentially the final bomb as this breaks down keeps getting pushed back. Why I said what I did to tracker earlier.  But I'm not thrilled.  Delayed will be denied with climo getting more hostile everyday. Watch us end up with a 970 bomb east of OC and its 2 inches of slush because of boundary temps march 30th. 

[clskinsfan]

Well. Since we are between model runs and Storm mode still isnt in effect in this thread. What is everybodys drink of choice for St Paddy's day? I have an unopened bottle of Macallan 12 just staring at me on the counter. And I wont be involved in tonights model conversation as I suspect my input will be inaccurate as hell

[smokeybandit]

I've got a year old bottle of 120 minute IPA.  I should break that out

[Superstorm]

Winters where blocking like this sets in between dec 15 and feb 15 is when we get a big winter. Shame this came so late. But better late then never it's fun tracking at least. Been a crazy ride this month. 

So true.


.

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There's a gospel song that goes like that...lol

Low key impressed with your knowledge of my people’s music. Lol.  But.wx related, curious as to what the EPS got going on.  

[WeSuck]

Been super busy. Can someone give a quick rundown of what the major models are showing? Is it still going to snow?

[TSSN+]

From lwx

Model 
guidance is agreeing more and more each run that we are 
anticipating a winter storm to some degree of magnitude. 

 

[stormy]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is where I am.  Today kept me in. I would be really excited if I was somewhere with a bit of elevation in northern VA. We need a 50 mile north trend to get the big totals up here.  Certainly doable. 

Elevation always helps this time of the year.

But, a person must feel good about the general synoptics going into this threat. 50/50, Hp nosing down from the northern lakes into the MA and an eastward moving Lp in central Tennessee. That puts nearly everyone in the game.

The models should work out the details of wave 1 and 2 during the next 24. That is the one unknown that makes this a little dicey.

[mappy]

I’m feeling pretty good that I see accumulation out of this system, hoping for another tick north over the next few days

[Cobalt]

Uhhh

[nj2va]

Overall 12z runs have been kind for DC....timing is pretty ideal and rates should be good.  Would love a degree or two cooler though.

[87storms]

not sure of the importance of the geps, but it's juiced up the precip max each of the last few runs and now has dc within the 0.75"+ area.

[WeathermanB]

EPS mean definitely increased from 00z. Lets hope the increasing trend continues.

[T. August]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m feeling pretty good that I see accumulation out of this system, hoping for another tick north over the next few days

I’m really pulling for ya. You’ve been on the edge for some time now. Hopefully you get warning criteria.

[KingJWx]

9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Uhhh

What do the individual members look like?