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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I really don't get the negativity in here. The gfs, Euro and cmc are all 3-8 inch storms for the majority of the subforum In mid MARCH. I mean to me any snow after March first is bonus snow. Yes. It looks likely that the mega bomb hecs idea is done. But those are exceedingly rare for a reason. Every model is showing a nice storm for the majority of us.

Probably because we've been in this situation far too many times this year, seeing run-after-run trends of weaker/sheared/south.  

And call me skeptical, but I don't see much chance of a 3" snow in LATE March (the 21st is late March) being anything but some on-grass/on-car slop.  That's fine as a stats-padder, but after the season we've endured it just feels very empty.  Fine storm for DJF, or after a productive winter, but very meh for a winter that has left us with 15% climo and a late March epic-block pattern that has produced nor'easter after nor'easter to buffet the NE with snow, and us with wind, for nearly 2 weeks.  Glass half-empty, I suppose.

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Round Hill WX

Round Hill WX

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't know that I hated the 6z hr gfs it's close but dang on wave 1. Winchester boys should like it, heck Round Hill dude should as well. Ji has infected everyone with the HECS or no mindset. You guys do know he feels that way on January 17th as well as March 17th right?

Yeah I like it. It’s clear now the phased bomb crawler isn’t happening. I’ll take a few inches in March and be very happy.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm actually not stressing the GEFS. Looks like only one member shuts us out and lots of good hits.

I'm feeling better about getting at least something decent out of this. Probably not a HECS but it looks like I could easily get my top snowfall of the season.

 

iEXoELb.jpg

Even the worst member I get something.  Most get something.  We could be tracking grass, pollen, mulch this time of year.  Not too shabby. Life is good. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm actually not stressing the GEFS. Looks like only one member shuts us out and lots of good hits.

I'm feeling better about getting at least something decent out of this. Probably not a HECS but it looks like I could easily get my top snowfall of the season.

 

iEXoELb.jpg

I mean. I just dont know how you can look at those panels be negative in any way? I may just need to take a break from the thread for a while. I am not getting the negative vibe in here.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

I agree.  Mind you, I'm a classical ballet major and not a meteorologist so y'all know many times better than I do, but I'm just enjoying seeing where this thing goes and giving it some time.  

Well we are going to tiptoe our way to some snow.  All the shortwaves showing up are doing an allegro and I don't think any model has them shown 100% right as of yet. They all need to batterie together to make this all work. If wave 1 doesn't deliver then we need wave 2 to make the trough allonge so that it goes negative sooner. That would give us snow too.

All these things are chaines and while we like to chasse storms if they don't deliver many here will flip out when this thing echappes.

 

Did I butcher this well enough?  I only went through the letter E on a ballet dictionary website.

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cobalt said:

Really surprised no one mentioned the timing. The first wave comes in between 18z Monday and 0z Tuesday, and peaks in intensity at 6z Tuesday. No sun angle to deal with here, unless we're talking about the 2nd wave


.

I have a few times every time someone says something about rates and March 

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean. I just dont know how you can look at those panels be negative in any way? I may just need to take a break from the thread for a while. I am not getting the negative vibe in here.

The last two Euro runs give my yard 0.00" of precip.  If that changes, I will feel better about seeing some snow.  If it doesn't, the other model solutions don't mean much in my book.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ji said:

Why does it never want to snow here?

Jb this morning is saying exactly what I did last night lol. The lead wave speeding up and then shearing out is screwing this up. Instead of getting to the coast then pulling everything in behind it and focusing the upper level energy it washes out and all the vorts are left to meander around aimlessly behind it. Without that phasing pulling the second vort in the next vort digs too much and ends up way too far south and so not only is the coastal weak its south. Game over. 

What we want to see ideally is a trend back to a stronger slower lead wave that then pulls everything in behind it. Only other way would be if it somehow got out of the way completely and something amplified behind on its own but that's a huge shift at short leads now. 

If we see any further degradation today it's probably game over Baltimore north and reduced to only a marginal event from wave 1 D.C. South. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jb this morning is saying exactly what I did last night lol. The lead wave speeding up and then shearing out is screwing this up. Instead of getting to the coast then pulling everything in behind it and focusing the upper level energy it washes out and all the vorts are left to meander around aimlessly behind it. Without that phasing pulling the second vort in the next vort digs too much and ends up way too far south and so not only is the coastal weak its south. Game over. 

What we want to see ideally is a trend back to a stronger slower lead wave that then pulls everything in behind it. Only other way would be if it somehow got out of the way completely and something amplified behind on its own but that's a huge shift at short leads now. 

If we see any further degradation today it's probably game over Baltimore north and reduced to only a marginal event from wave 1 D.C. South. 

If we are relying on timing again...mercy. We haven't done good timing right all year! Man I hope we can pull a miracle here...

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