I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

This year, everything seems to be wait and see

Typical for weak nina climo

[osfan24]

Told myself not to get roped in on this one but did against my better judgement. Give the way the winter has unfolded, these trends should come as absolutely no surprise. As we get closer in time, everything this year has either lifted north or gotten sheared out and suppressed south. Fitting way for this winter to go out though.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Can kind of see how WxUSAF's fail scenario could work out looking at the trends, lol. GFS tries to hook the coastal low back in to clobber NE but it doesn't quite get it done.

Still time; it'll happen.

[MD Snow]

12z is gonna be key. If we continue to see everything trend further south/supressed. I think with it will go our hopes of any accumulating snow from DC north. If the models hold or trend slightly north, I'll feel pretty good. I get that wave #1 has trended weaker but it's still got a lot of qpf associated with it. We just need it to hold or trend ever so slightly north and I think EZF-BWI has a decent chance at a moderate snowfall in 3-6 vicinity. As for wave #2, its looking worse and worse but it's still a solid 4 days out on guidance. Still time for it to shift. I know many think the writing is on the wall and it probably is but let's wait to see what the 12z suite does. 

[Quasievil]

Guys, you let yourselves get suckered in again. Progressive pattern wins this year. 

[H2O]

I'm telling you.  There is a card for every occasion.  This one works too

[H2O]

and soon some will find a 12z model that they will hug and they get this card

[MD Snow]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

and soon some will find a 12z model that they will hug and they get this card

LOL. This is the year where you can count on models screwing us Every. Single. Time. One of these year's all the realists we'll be proven wrong and will have to eat their words. This is simply not the year for that.  

[clskinsfan]

I really don't get the negativity in here. The gfs, Euro and cmc are all 3-8 inch storms for the majority of the subforum In mid MARCH. I mean to me any snow after March first is bonus snow. Yes. It looks likely that the mega bomb hecs idea is done. But those are exceedingly rare for a reason. Every model is showing a nice storm for the majority of us.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I really don't get the negativity in here. The gfs, Euro and cmc are all 3-8 inch storms for the majority of the subforum In mid MARCH. I mean to me any snow after March first is bonus snow. Yes. It looks likely that the mega bomb hecs idea is done. But those are exceedingly rare for a reason. Every model is showing a nice storm for the majority of us.

It's all about trends.  I don't like seeing the decrease in qpf continue.  Those 3+ numbers are not yet safe.

[Interstate]

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

I'm telling you.  There is a card for every occasion.  This one works too

It is like Cards Against Humanity

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I really don't get the negativity in here. The gfs, Euro and cmc are all 3-8 inch storms for the majority of the subforum In mid MARCH. I mean to me any snow after March first is bonus snow. Yes. It looks likely that the mega bomb hecs idea is done. But those are exceedingly rare for a reason. Every model is showing a nice storm for the majority of us.

Don't forget the keepin it real gang are the furthest SE and North in the subforum

[Chris78]

Wave 1 shows 4 to 8 inch potential aimed at northern va , dc and M.D. That's pretty substantial for late March. Looking at the eps I  was surprised to see so many of them depicting 5 to 10 inch storms across the region. There was a nice mix of southern hits ,northern hits and flush hits across our sub forum . We definitely do not want to see it trend more weak and suppessed but the Euro was only  a 50 mile trend north for a region wide 4 to 8 inch event. I thought the 00z euro was a little better  than the 12 z. Wave 2 isn't looking to hot but we may have a substantial snow starting in 72 hours. 

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I really don't get the negativity in here. The gfs, Euro and cmc are all 3-8 inch storms for the majority of the subforum In mid MARCH. I mean to me any snow after March first is bonus snow. Yes. It looks likely that the mega bomb hecs idea is done. But those are exceedingly rare for a reason. Every model is showing a nice storm for the majority of us.

Except that's 3-8 inches in mid-March. Unless it's a major thump, it's much less than that, and most of the forum is more toward the 3 inch amount than the 8 inch on the snowmaps anyway. Unless it's really cold or it's a HECS, accumulation on March 20 is going to be very difficult. And I've seen enough 2 inch storms to last a lifetime this winter.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Don't forget the keepin it real gang are the furthest SE and North in the subforum

If you are referring to me, no not even close.

Verbatim, the current runs of the major globals do still give most of the region decent snow, but you cannot ignore the trends over the past few runs either.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Except that's 3-8 inches in mid-March. Unless it's a major thump, it's much less than that, and most of the forum is more toward the 3 inch amount than the 8 inch on the snowmaps anyway. Unless it's really cold or it's a HECS, accumulation on March 20 is going to be very difficult. And I've seen enough 2 inch storms to last a lifetime this winter.

Not at night which most of it is

[aldie 22]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

If you are referring to me, no not even close.

Verbatim, the current runs of the major globals do still give most of the region decent snow, but you cannot ignore the trends over the past few runs either.

Meh it's Saturday I say trend at 12z tomorrow.  And yes I can ignore them anyway I'm 51 yrs old lol heck I will probably forget them by this afternoon 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Meh it's Saturday I say trend at 12z tomorrow.  And yes I can ignore them anyway I'm 51 yrs old lol heck I will probably forget them by this afternoon 

well said "old" man.  This 48 year young guy agrees.  Too early to toss, but right time to worry.

 

[snowmagnet]

While we are waiting for some new model runs, can I get a quick summary of what is most likely to happen next week, at least according to the latest runs?  It looks like we will see some snow with at least the first wave.  Is this starting Tuesday afternoon or evening? 

And, what is EZF? 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

While we are waiting for some new model runs, can I get a quick summary of what is most likely to happen next week, at least according to the latest runs?  It looks like we will see some snow with at least the first wave.  Is this starting Tuesday afternoon or evening? 

And, what is EZF? 

Airport code like IAD

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

well said "old" man.  This 48 year young guy agrees.  Too early to toss, but right time to worry.

 

Unfortunately for you a benchmark track or phased bomberooni is looking less and less likely. Especially the benchmark track. I cant root for you with wave 1 because it would mean rain for me. Every man/woman for him or herself on this one

[aldie 22]

I don't know that I hated the 6z hr gfs it's close but dang on wave 1. Winchester boys should like it, heck Round Hill dude should as well. Ji has infected everyone with the HECS or no mindset. You guys do know he feels that way on January 17th as well as March 17th right?

[WeathermanB]

I'm here for some real posting... What if the ECMWF would be trending more supressed and progressive right until the last minute... like the blizzard of 2016? I'm not completely knocked up on this storm just yet, we still have time.

[KingJWx]

Thought I'd post the 6z GEFS plumes here for IAD. Doesn't look too shabby (10:1 ratios on there though, you should adjust down accordingly).

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't know that I hated the 6z hr gfs it's close but dang on wave 1. Winchester boys should like it, heck Round Hill dude should as well. Ji has infected everyone with the HECS or no mindset. You guys do know he feels that way on January 17th as well as March 17th right?

Hecs or bust mindset is no way to live around here. If the grass gets covered and I get to watch it fall then I'll be thrilled. I know you and I share that mentality. Snow of any quantity in the 3rd week of March should be embraced period. For me that's really all there is to it. 

[Jandurin]

will this 12z suite be the first time it's within 72 hours?

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hecs or bust mindset is no way to live around here. If the grass gets covered and I get to watch it fall then I'll be thrilled. I know you and I share that mentality. Snow of any quantity in the 3rd week of March should be embraced period. For me that's really all there is to it. 

Let's say it falls like an 8" snow just doesn't accumulate that way....that is some serious snow falling. How's that for some convoluted logic?

[RevWarReenactor]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hecs or bust mindset is no way to live around here. If the grass gets covered and I get to watch it fall then I'll be thrilled. I know you and I share that mentality. Snow of any quantity in the 3rd week of March should be embraced period. For me that's really all there is to it. 

Not the kind of snow I like. Still got to go to work, still got to function, its gone in about an hour,  and it leaves a flavor in your mouth of wanting more, when in reality, spring is here.

HECS or best. Better yet, can we put a bullet in this winter already? I feel like I am stuck in the twilight zone of winter weather fail hell.

[Jandurin]

heavy prolonged snowfall is win

flurries of snow tv is lose

idc about stickage but if the storm wants to hecs me it's more than welcome

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

I agree.  Mind you, I'm a classical ballet major and not a meteorologist so y'all know many times better than I do, but I'm just enjoying seeing where this thing goes and giving it some time.  

The look at h5 went to crapola last night..progressive and flat...unless that improves today the light will continue to dim..this made wave 2 damper out...now we are hoping wave 1 gives us something..but it can’t be everything for everyone..there has to be losers for wave 1..and wave 2 is not looking like it wants to party with us.  That’s our current state of the MA union.