I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[smokeybandit]

If UMBC can score a big upset, so can the region with a snow storm

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

If UMBC can score a big upset, so can the region with a snow storm

That was incredible.

I kinda doubt I will be uttering those words about this event lol.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro/EPS pretty is much identical for the region with wave one. Mean precip looks almost exactly the same. So if you liked 12z, You should like 0z, and visa versa.

Overall it appears emphasis is now on the lead wave across all guidance, which is unfortunate because it has limited potential, and will probably screw half the subforum one way or another. IMO it can only hold or trend weaker. Maybe the big bomb idea comes back for the trailer, but it seems unlikely at this point.

My take too. The lead wave is trending weaker. That probably continues. It's washing out not amplifying. The area a significant snow with it will be fairly narrow so it's not a regionwide win. Somewhere could get 3-6" with it if it breaks right though. But that's about max potential imo. 

After that it seems there are too many competing vorts and we get a broad trough and nothing consolidated or cut off. The whole thing is weak and easily suppressed south. I also think the stronger wave 1 helped to pull everything together and consolidate. As wave 1 trends south and weaker the rest goes the same way. The only two runs that gave us a good storm navgem and ukmet had the strongest wave 1. Unfortunately the trend is away from that. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My take too. The lead wave is trending weaker. That probably continues. It's washing out not amplifying. The area a significant snow with it will be fairly narrow so it's not a regionwide win. Somewhere could get 3-6" with it if it breaks right though. But that's about max potential imo. 

After that it seems there are too many competing vorts and we get a broad trough and nothing consolidated or cut off. The whole thing is weak and easily suppressed south. I also think the weaker wave 1 helped to pull everything together and consolidate. As wave 1 trends south and weaker the rest goes the same way. The only two runs that gave us a good storm navgem and ukmet had the strongest wave 1. Unfortunately the trend is away from that. 

Pretty much every event that has looked really good on the guidance at range has slipped away before the Bob Chill threshold of 72 hours. So I guess keep it simple and hope we still have some semblance of an event on the table as we get closer. The recent trends aren't good though for something big, which is really what we need to have an impactful snow event in mid March. Something more modest can work but it needs to fall overnight or early AM. Maybe we see some better trends with the model cycles today, but it needs to happen soon and given the advertised strength/location of the features at h5 over the past several runs, I am not sure how much change we can realistically expect at this juncture.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro/EPS pretty is much identical for the region with wave one. Mean precip looks almost exactly the same. So if you liked 12z, You should like 0z, and visa versa.

Overall it appears emphasis is now on the lead wave across all guidance, which is unfortunate because it has limited potential, and will probably screw half the subforum one way or another. IMO it can only hold or trend weaker. Maybe the big bomb idea comes back for the trailer, but it seems unlikely at this point.

I thought the EPS was a horrible run. It's about the same with wave 1 but it totally lost wave 2. TOTALLY not a single member still has any wave 2. That's why it shaved another 1/2" from most. It actually increased qpf with wave 1 slightly but there were no big 10"+ members anymore. I think the EPS not having any members showing that while all other guidance is moving that way too us kind of a death blow to the idea of the cut off coastal wave. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought the EPS was a horrible run. It's about the same with wave 1 but it totally lost wave 2. TOTALLY not a single member still has any wave 2. That's why it shaved another 1/2" from most. It actually increased qpf with wave 1 slightly but there were no big 10"+ members anymore. I think the EPS not having any members showing that while all other guidance is moving that way too us kind of a death blow to the idea of the cut off coastal wave. 

Yeah I was not even considering wave 2. Its pretty much dead in my mind at this point. Euro/EPS is going the way of recent runs of the GFS, and the CMC- which really never had it.

[psuhoffman]

Gefs moved that way too. Look at the reduction from 18z. And see the double max down in southeast VA. That's obviously indicating where the wave 2 is now. I expect the gfs to continue to correct weaker with wave 1 also so I'm not thrilled to be in the bullseye of that either. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Pretty much every event that has looked really good on the guidance at range has slipped away before the Bob Chill threshold of 72 hours. So I guess keep it simple and hope we still have some semblance of an event on the table as we get closer. The recent trends aren't good though for something big, which is really what we need to have an impactful snow event in mid March. Something more modest can work but it needs to fall overnight or early AM. Maybe we see some better trends with the model cycles today, but it needs to happen soon and given the advertised strength/location of the features at h5 over the past several runs, I am not sure how much change we can realistically expect at this juncture.

 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought the EPS was a horrible run. It's about the same with wave 1 but it totally lost wave 2. TOTALLY not a single member still has any wave 2. That's why it shaved another 1/2" from most. It actually increased qpf with wave 1 slightly but there were no big 10"+ members anymore. I think the EPS not having any members showing that while all other guidance is moving that way too us kind of a death blow to the idea of the cut off coastal wave. 

Still think the outcome is far from decided. That said I wasn't exactly enamored with what I saw from the overnight runs though I did see a small positive here and there. But the negatives far outweighed the positives. Give it another day of runs to see if we can get the big storm (2nd wave) look back if we don't see it by then then that option will probably be off the table.

[CAPE]

This pretty much sums it up nicely from this morning's Mount Holly AFD-

The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night`s 00Z run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday- Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent, duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5 days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for phasing to occur) is limited, it`s a bit premature to rule out a shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night through Wednesday night.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Still think the outcome is far from decided. That said I wasn't exactly enamored with what I saw from the overnight runs though I did see a small positive here and there. But the negatives far outweighed the positives. Give it another day of runs to see if we can get the big storm (2nd wave) look back if we don't see it by then then that option will probably be off the table.

6z gfs continues the deamplification trend. Wave 1 now fringes us up here. Wave 2 is suppressed way south.  My gut says this is slipping away for anything significant anywhere (10"+) and might be slipping away completely for the northern 1/3 of this forum. I do buy the euro more suppressed look. Wave 1 is shearing out not amplifying. It will have a contracting qpf shield not expanding. It's being squashed.  I think the end result is a narrow west to east band of 3-5" somewhere south of D.C.   We needed the trough to amplify behind it and cut off. That's what the guidance teased us with. The look now never would have had my interest. 

This isn't directed at anyone specifically and definitely not you.

You know I'm not a glass half empty guy. When the runs are good I say so. I was just saying so yesterday when I thought the 12z gfs was a great run. This is worlds apart from that.

But I get annoyed also when some stick their head in the sand about bad trends. If it's bad it's bad. I'm not one to ignore or minimize that either. I call it like I see it. Some hold on too long after things go bad. "It's not that bad" "It's just one run". "It could come back". "The navgem and U.K. still has it". I have no time for that crap.  The trends the last 24 hours have sucked. That simple. The whole trough is trending less amplified. The h5 looks nothing like those maps I posted comparing it to 1958 24 hours ago. It's a shell of that now. So sure it could come back. And it could continue to degrade into total and complete fail. Given our luck lately that seems more likely lol. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This pretty much sums it up nicely from this morning's Mount Holly AFD-

The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night`s 00Z run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday- Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent, duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5 days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for phasing to occur) is limited, it`s a bit premature to rule out a shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night through Wednesday night.

Boo on them 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Boo on them 

LOL

I thought that too.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gfs continues the deamplification trend. Wave 1 now fringes us up here. Wave 2 is suppressed way south.  My gut says this is slipping away for anything significant anywhere (10"+) and might be slipping away completely for the northern 1/3 of this forum. I do buy the euro more suppressed look. Wave 1 is shearing out not amplifying. It will have a contracting qpf shield not expanding. It's being squashed.  I think the end result is a narrow west to east band of 3-5" somewhere south of D.C.   We needed the trough to amplify behind it and cut off. That's what the guidance teased us with. The look now never would have had my interest. 

This isn't directed at anyone specifically and definitely not you.

You know I'm not a glass half empty guy. When the runs are good I say so. I was just saying so yesterday when I thought the 12z gfs was a great run. This is worlds apart from that.

But I get annoyed also when some stick their head in the sand about bad trends. If it's bad it's bad. I'm not one to ignore or minimize that either. I call it like I see it. Some hold on too long after things go bad. "It's not that bad" "It's just one run". "It could come back". "The navgem and U.K. still has it". I have no time for that crap.  The trends the last 24 hours have sucked. That simple. The whole trough is trending less amplified. The h5 looks nothing like those maps I posted comparing it to 1958 24 hours ago. It's a shell of that now. So sure it could come back. And it could continue to degrade into total and complete fail. Given our luck lately that seems more likely lol. 

I agree with you. What we have seen with the last couple of cycles of runs is far from what we want to see. You are just telling as it is. As I said another day of runs will probably tell us all we need to know in regards to our chances. Don't see what we need to see by then I will start looking for our next day 10 threat. Sure there has to be one on one of the models.  

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gfs continues the deamplification trend. Wave 1 now fringes us up here. Wave 2 is suppressed way south.  My gut says this is slipping away for anything significant anywhere (10"+) and might be slipping away completely for the northern 1/3 of this forum. I do buy the euro more suppressed look. Wave 1 is shearing out not amplifying. It will have a contracting qpf shield not expanding. It's being squashed.  I think the end result is a narrow west to east band of 3-5" somewhere south of D.C.   We needed the trough to amplify behind it and cut off. That's what the guidance teased us with. The look now never would have had my interest. 

This isn't directed at anyone specifically and definitely not you.

You know I'm not a glass half empty guy. When the runs are good I say so. I was just saying so yesterday when I thought the 12z gfs was a great run. This is worlds apart from that.

But I get annoyed also when some stick their head in the sand about bad trends. If it's bad it's bad. I'm not one to ignore or minimize that either. I call it like I see it. Some hold on too long after things go bad. "It's not that bad" "It's just one run". "It could come back". "The navgem and U.K. still has it". I have no time for that crap.  The trends the last 24 hours have sucked. That simple. The whole trough is trending less amplified. The h5 looks nothing like those maps I posted comparing it to 1958 24 hours ago. It's a shell of that now. So sure it could come back. And it could continue to degrade into total and complete fail. Given our luck lately that seems more likely lol. 

Yeah like I said this whole thing seems destined to screw at least half the subforum. GFS is pretty warm so NW areas get a little love from wave one, but its snow tv or rain for the rest. And wave 2 is gone for our region this run.

[aldie 22]

Got the "keepin it real" crew working hard this morning.  Great stuff guys!!

[CAPE]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Got the "keepin it real" crew working hard this morning.  Great stuff guys!!

Gotta have some balance. 

[CAPE]

Can kind of see how WxUSAF's fail scenario could work out looking at the trends, lol. GFS tries to hook the coastal low back in to clobber NE but it doesn't quite get it done.

[Ji]

Why does it never want to snow here?

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

Why does it never want to snow here?

We need a NINO.

[showmethesnow]

At this point the whole setup is convoluted as all get out and a mess with everything out of sync. Gives you some hope that maybe the models just aren't handling things well. But with what the models currently show, and this is pretty much a stab in the dark, I think our best chances for a big storm from the second wave is to see the first wave come in weaker (not so much suppressed but just weaker) then currently projected and even then we need some help in other areas.

eta: Meant to mention that we would also need to see greater separation between wave one and two. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Bah, this was so close to something nice the way all the models were showing the stall around our latitude.  Well, at least we can’t say we weren’t worried.  This is the fail scenario that @Bob ChiII, @psuhoffman, et al warned us about.  Oh well.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

At this point the whole setup is convoluted as all get out and a mess with everything out of sync. Gives you some hope that maybe the models just aren't handling things well. But with what the models currently show, and this is pretty much a stab in the dark, I think our best chances for a big storm from the second wave is to see the first wave come in weaker (not so much suppressed but just weaker) then currently projected and even then we need some help in other areas. 

Yeah maybe that would work. Given the look/trends of wave 1 on the Euro/GFS, I would gladly sacrifice it for a better outcome with the second, which still looks to have the best potential if we can get a consolidated piece of UL energy.

Hopefully we see some better trends at 12z and 0z. If not, this will likely end up being yet another LR modeled big event to add to the long list of unrealized potential this winter.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah maybe that would work. Given the look/trends of wave 1 on the Euro/GFS, I would gladly sacrifice it for a better outcome with the second, which still looks to have the best potential if we can get a consolidated piece of UL energy.

Hopefully we see some better trends at 12z and 0z. If not, this will likely end up being yet another LR modeled big event to add to the long list of unrealized potential this winter.

Honestly I want to see everything we track produce but aside from that it has been a fun winter tracking. Especially considering last year where there was virtually nothing that could make it inside of 7 days if not 10. Also gives us a much better idea of how the newer versions of the GFS and the Euro handle things which we really didn't have the opportunity to see last year. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

This is a i95 special from DC to NYC not sure Boston gets hit. Look January 2016. Enjoy the snow and dont look at the Euro it' the worst model

[midatlanticweather]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why does it never want to snow here?

I posted the chance on Facebook.. It was a dagger that killed the storm...

[snowmagnet]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I posted the chance on Facebook.. It was a dagger that killed the storm...

I’m pretty sure you weren’t the only one who has posted this possibility on FB.  We have all been sucked in again. But it isn’t over yet.... last week,  it didn’t look like NE was going to see a flake until about 48 hours out.  Then they got a foot or 2. 

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Boo on them 

Their interpretation is way off. This is not a “positive trend”.  

[mappy]

Why does it never want to snow here?

Mother Nature hates you

This is a i95 special from DC to NYC not sure Boston gets hit. Look January 2016. Enjoy the snow and dont look at the Euro it' the worst model

Stop



.

[mappy]

I realize that this thread has been pretty relaxed over the last few days, but some of you need to make better posts. I’ll be moderating as I see fit from now on, storm mode or not. Especially during model run times. 

[smokeybandit]

This year, everything seems to be wait and see