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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:
Glad I wasted my time posting then. 

Not a waste. Just dosent excite me in mid march too see 4-8

The thing is, a HECS is very much on table. Maybe not a true hecs because I don't see this one running a benchmark track. That's actually getting close to being off the table. But our area is probably in or close enough to the best spot for something significant. 

Even if the gfs showed a plastering I would feel about as good about it as I do with what it just showed. March is bowling season. My gut says h5 closes off and slows down somewhere before exiting the coast. Typical late March climo kind of thing.

This event should be a good precip producer but if it's staggered and drawn out even 1.5" of qpf all snow wont be off the chain because it is the 3rd week of March. If it's more cohesive then the impactometer goes up. Time to just chew a few fingernails or practice our guitars. It will probably be 48 hours before we know whether it's staggered or cohesive. No model will give me confidence one way or the other until we shave some lead time. You know this already anyways. 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted

I'm rooting for wave 1 and anything with wave 2 is icing on top. Wave 1 is basically 3 days away and trending better. Wave 2 is so strung out with multiple pieces of energy. Who knows what in the world happens with that but I know we definitely don't do complicated well and wave 2 seems complicated. Wave 1 seems  fairly straight forward. We just need to be on the winning side. Getting hit with a HECS that the Euro was showing   would be great but ill take whatever I can get. 4 inches would seem like a HECS after the last 2 years..lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Even though we're all having fun and not worrying about moderation, show some restraint during prime time. I was out and figured I'd scan this thread for all the good details but the few good posts were buried inside a steaming pile above and below. That's pretty lame when 3 globals just gave us legit stuff to discuss. 

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WestminsterSnowCapitalMA

WestminsterSnowCapitalMA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Even though we're all having fun and not worrying about moderation, show some restraint during prime time. I was out and figured I'd scan this thread for all the good details but the few good posts were buried inside a steaming pile above and below. That's pretty lame when 3 globals just gave us legit stuff to discuss. 

I wish i knew enough to provide useful discussion, instead of trying the comedic relief angle. 

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

Analizing the GFS 250mb clearly looks better than 18z at hour 108hrs. Strong -tilt.

The second piece of vorticity catches the +10c line on the coast at 96hrs over Georgia. The low deepens for a few hours before everything dampens out.  Not sure what happened but that was close to a 1/25/00 bomb.  Front even lights up in the exact same spot, then pushes OTS.

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted

Euro is pretty much a swing and a miss from Baltimore north for the first and then the second wave isn’t a hit for anyone. First wave is slightly more north though. Does get some light precip north of b-more. Basically 1-3 dc/Balt with a stripe of 4-8 south of dc. 

Second wave is basically a non snow producer. I’d say we still have time for the second wave to get better but it’s quickly headed in the wrong direction on all guidance. 

Right now it appears to be first wave or bust. Could change but seems to be a decent consensus on the first wave. Gfs north, cmc in the middle and euro south but all show the same idea of a general 4-8 max snowfall with the first wave. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018031700/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180322-0000z.html

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Let’s be honest, these models won’t have a clue till Sunday, maybe even Monday. Been this way all season...Terrible. 

Even though this can be rather par for the course (especially for this kind of setup, I'm told...), the gut punch of so many of our misses this year is that once the models do get their act together, THEN the solution has screwed us. I can't remember the last time we had a positive trend within 96 hours...hopefully with the different setup than the previous three.. this one will be different.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Ukmet and navgem are the only model at 0z that showed what I want. :(

Everything is trending more strung out less consolidated system.

I'm with JI I was hunting the euro solution it popped out 4/6 runs but the HECS option is slipping away

we still have wave 1 but I'm not ready to let go of the cut off low 48 hour snowbomb idea. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Euro/EPS pretty is much identical for the region with wave one. Mean precip looks almost exactly the same. So if you liked 12z, You should like 0z, and visa versa.

Overall it appears emphasis is now on the lead wave across all guidance, which is unfortunate because it has limited potential, and will probably screw half the subforum one way or another. IMO it can only hold or trend weaker. Maybe the big bomb idea comes back for the trailer, but it seems unlikely at this point.

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