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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I'm with Bob on this. Just an overall wonky run that really has no redeeming value and should be tossed. Kind of curious though what the GEFS will spit out if it does play follow the leader somewhat. Should be some really interesting and weird solutions pop up.

Yea, find me an analog in the last 4000 years that did what the gfs just did in real life. I mean it's possible....but you and I have been at this model watching game for a long time. The GFS isn't how it works with this stuff. Stalled boundary with waves running during the warm season can draw things out like that but this is a winter event and winter events just don't develop/progress like that. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't like it. But I think myself and the D.C. centered crew is fearing opposite things and so are looking for opposite trends. I want more amped. I think you want less. But I'm disregarding the lead wave. Maybe it's a 3-6" thump. Maybe it's not. But the upside potential here is getting this all to come together and cut off in a good spot with wave 2.  That's my biggest priority. And everything is moving the wrong way with that. This gfs run is suppressing wave 2 in large part not amplifying it. This doesn't have the big 12"+ potential the euro was showing for several runs without an amplified system and a cut off h5 in a good spot. I'm chasing a HECS not a 2-4" slop. I want to see a move towards a cut off h5 over VA and a 988 low just east of OC not this strung out conglomerate of waves competing. 

I think most of us are chasing snow of any kind at this point.  But you’re right depending on your location would dictate what you want.  It would take a lot more for me to get front end thump.  50 miles for you 100 for me.  This gives me near 6 inches so I like it.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't work like that though. Especially with the ridge/trough alignment. There is no doubt in my mind that in reality there is either going to be a front runner with nothing on the heels or a front runner with a significant storm on the heels. Not saying I believe it's going to happen overhead but I'll say with full confidence that a long drawn out weak event covering like 60 hours isn't in the cards. 

Agree. My fear is the front runner will end up all there is. The second wave keeps trending south on all guidance. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Kinda starting to get the feel that this one is going to find a way to work out instead of the other way around. May not live up to Ji's standards but there's some compelling reasons to believe something is going to come out of this one. 

I kinda got that feeling. Of course looking at the GFS snowfall map, DC-BWI area still manages to be somewhat jipped- in between the lead wave and the following coastal, lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

I think most of us are chasing snow of any kind at this point.  But you’re right depending on your location would dictate what you want.  It would take a lot more for me to get front end thump.  50 miles for you 100 for me.  This gives me near 6 inches so I like it.  

Toss me into that category. I don't really care how it happens. I'd like to top my biggest event of the year (3.5"). That's my success bar. And if it's just slop or non-accum snow or whatever I'm good with that too. I'm not picky and don't care if it's not a hecs or even a secs. 

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What do we need to see to get this to close off a little faster and have slightly more neg tilt?fced972af85574b3dadd4a2e0010a1a8.jpg

As long as the 50/50 stays out of the way there's a chance.   Going to be hard to get an early -tilt with so many different NS vorts, but it can be done.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Gfs was so close to a big event and just didn't pull it all together. I don't want to sound doom and gloom. It wasn't a bad run. But I do want to see more guidance coming in with runs like the last 2 euro runs and trending towards a consolidated bomb not strung out waves. This is still really close. So I'm not bailing or anything. But today has failed to raise my confidence in a big storm at all. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs was so close to a big event and just didn't pull it all together. I don't want to sound doom and gloom. It wasn't a bad run. But I do want to see more guidance coming in with runs like the last 2 euro runs and trending towards a consolidated bomb not strung out waves. This is still really close. So I'm not bailing or anything. But today has failed to raise my confidence in a big storm at all. 

Fair enough.  All we did was muddy the water.  We have time..some time.  Back to work at 0z.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  All we did was muddy the water.  We have time..some time.  Back to work at 0z.  

Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 

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Jandurin

Jandurin

Posted
Posted
Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 
I hear you but consider the rest of this winter
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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 

I hear you but consider the rest of this winter

Considering that 2-4 inches would be a nice send off to spring.  Winter Storm Watch would be a win.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 

I know we all speak from an IMBY perspective but I'd say today was a step forward for the urban crew. All guidance has trended better/colder with the lead wave. I pretty much had that written off expecting zero chance for the WAA piece to work in my yard. Even though the euro last night was good I know my yard/climo and I also know that this is right at the lead time where I usually lose that battle. Not today though. Euro was a straight miss south (which is fine) but also a great column for snow had the heavy precip made it here. GFS/CMC/ICON all improved with the the lead wave and snow chances close to and into the cities.  

I do agree that the signal for a consolidated/stalled/closed off bomb backed off but that's mostly a function of shortwave #2. Still pretty far out there to get hung up one way or the other. If I can pull off any *reasonable* amount of snowfall with wave 1 then I'm pretty damn happy. So with that perspective, today was pretty good. 

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  All we did was muddy the water.  We have time..some time.  Back to work at 0z.  

At this point I believe that the models are advertising a potential big ticket item next week. We don't know and the models will certainly change over the weekend. I believe that the trend advertises snow for some or all of us. This is a bonus for late March! 

We are probably all well advised to defer to the experts on this board like Bob Chill ,PSU and the red flags to guide our thoughts.

IMO the 18z GFS snowmaps are totally out of sync with what would reasonably be expected in late March.

 

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  All we did was muddy the water.  We have time..some time.  Back to work at 0z.  

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I know we all speak from an IMBY perspective but I'd say today was a step forward for the urban crew. All guidance has trended better/colder with the lead wave. I pretty much had that written off expecting zero chance for the WAA piece to work in my yard. Even though the euro last night was good I know my yard/climo and I also know that this is right at the lead time where I usually lose that battle. Not today though. Euro was a straight miss south (which is fine) but also a great column for snow had the heavy precip made it here. GFS/CMC/ICON all improved with the the lead wave and snow chances close to and into the cities.  

I do agree that the signal for a consolidated/stalled/closed off bomb backed off but that's mostly a function of shortwave #2. Still pretty far out there to get hung up one way or the other. If I can pull off any *reasonable* amount of snowfall with wave 1 then I'm pretty damn happy. So with that perspective, today was pretty good. 

But that wave 2....It will either be the money maker or the heart breaker. I'm like PSU...I don't want to see that 2nd wave get squashed so stuff misses just to the south...I wanna go all in! Hoping we see that idea come into focus!

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

I’d like to see the wave enter at a lower latitude.  If you view the 500 loop (gfs) you can kinda see the general progression across the conus (slightly southeast).  I still think the mid Atlantic is in the game but it doesn’t like it would turn the corner fast enough just based off of the current modeling.  Maybe getting one of those northern pieces to dig a little further west sooner could help as well. Note: just tossing an idea out there

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stormy said:

At this point I believe that the models are advertising a potential big ticket item next week. We don't know and the models will certainly change over the weekend. I believe that the trend advertises snow for some or all of us. This is a bonus for late March! 

We are probably all well advised to defer to the experts on this board like Bob Chill ,PSU and the red flags to guide our thoughts.

IMO the 18z GFS snowmaps are totally out of sync with what would reasonably be expected in late March.

 

 

The heck with Chill and PSU..they are good but we need the heavy artillery...we need Kocin.  The original winter gangster. He would know what’s up.  

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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Posted
Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 
I lost 27 inches
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