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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

True...I guess the often-quoted addage of "better to need a north trend than a southern one" would apply here...(even though it previously didn't work, lol)

Not sure I would really count on that in this setup. Storm track is basically being steered with the blocking in the NE/Southern Canada. And I could very well see that coming in stronger over future runs driving the storm track south. Case in point the Euro.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Copious precip with the lead wave on the GFS but not workable with the mids. However, better than 12z. Very close to a big hit with the lead wave honestly. I suppose you could say it's a positive trend. 

18z looked better IMO with regards to a front end hit... but the mids kinda sucked as you stated.  We have time to work on it though 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think we need to have an intervention about your fringeaphobia....

It's where I live. I dont fear rain like I would in DC. Even with an inside track I tend to do ok. And with my elevation if its close I win. So I always root amped up liquid bomb.  Most times when I fail it's because I don't get into heavy precip. It does happen. It's happened several times the last 2 years. It happened Jan 30 2010.  March 5 2013 too. I missed the heavy qpf to the south. I had temps and the snow stuck up here but it wasn't big because the heavy bands stayed in VA. I can get fringed and that's a bigger risk then being all rain from this setup up here. Location location location. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure I would really count on that in this setup. Storm track is basically being steered with the blocking in the NE/Southern Canada. And I could very well see that coming in stronger over future runs driving the storm track south. Case in point the Euro.

Thought you were worried about north?  But I agree that "it's coming north" thing is a relic of a time gone by. It's a crapshoot now if things trend north or south. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z looked better IMO with regards to a front end hit... but the mids kinda sucked as you stated.  We have time to work on it though 

Kinda starting to get the feel that this one is going to find a way to work out instead of the other way around. May not live up to Ji's standards but there's some compelling reasons to believe something is going to come out of this one. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Thought you were worried about north?  But I agree that "it's coming north" thing is a relic of a time gone by. It's a crapshoot now if things trend north or south. 

That was my initial fear and still is for the most part but the Euro solution has gotten into my head a little bit because it is a very realistic solution.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

That was my initial fear and still is for the most part but the Euro solution has gotten into my head a little bit because it is a very realistic solution.

I think it's in a lot of our heads because we've seen it too many dang times this season, smh (although at least in even the worst case scenario we won't have to watch PHIL-BOSTON get clobbered again...er, right? Lol That would lessen the pain a little if this doesn't work out)

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I can't recall a single time EVER where a storm (or series of mini storms) has progressed like what the gfs has just spit out. I'm tossing the run with 100% confidence that nothing was gained with what it just showed. 

this 2 wave thing seems odd unless we're dealing with some kind of a "stalled out front/secondary wave riding up" event.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

More confidence for long duration qpf

Doesn't work like that though. Especially with the ridge/trough alignment. There is no doubt in my mind that in reality there is either going to be a front runner with nothing on the heels or a front runner with a significant storm on the heels. Not saying I believe it's going to happen overhead but I'll say with full confidence that a long drawn out weak event covering like 60 hours isn't in the cards. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z looked better IMO with regards to a front end hit... but the mids kinda sucked as you stated.  We have time to work on it though 

I don't like it. But I think myself and the D.C. centered crew is fearing opposite things and so are looking for opposite trends. I want more amped. I think you want less. But I'm disregarding the lead wave. Maybe it's a 3-6" thump. Maybe it's not. But the upside potential here is getting this all to come together and cut off in a good spot with wave 2.  That's my biggest priority. And everything is moving the wrong way with that. This gfs run is suppressing wave 2 in large part not amplifying it. This doesn't have the big 12"+ potential the euro was showing for several runs without an amplified system and a cut off h5 in a good spot. I'm chasing a HECS not a 2-4" slop. I want to see a move towards a cut off h5 over VA and a 988 low just east of OC not this strung out conglomerate of waves competing. 

The gfs does eventually bring it all together but way too far south for my area. DC probably likes it. But most guidance is trending south with wave 2 and that's all I care about. I think wave 1 being north is skewing perception. But I dont care about that. If I get 4" with wave one then a big storm misses south of me I won't be happy. Wave 2 is all I'm looking at. 

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