I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The eps will almost always follow the op in general under 7 days. There's a significant cluster with direct hits. Looks just fine to me. WHEN (and I don't mean if/when) the euro shifts north with wave 1 then the EPS will sweeten up. 

I think sometimes people misinterpret my analysis one one run as a prediction of future runs.   I didn't like the euro. That doesn't mean I think it's right. But I also don't like to sugar coat the bad evidence either. The euro did give me some pause. Mainly because a suppressed system is my bigger fear not north. But I think the euro and gfs meet in the middle again and we are ok. And I agree the euro probably comes north. But I hate predicting predictions. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

I forget that you're rather significantly north of me.

I hope this storm doesn't fringe N MD

That fringe thing was a joke for a long time. I did good up here from 2006-2016. In general I got inside the northern banding of storms to my south and still pulled off good totals and stayed snow enough with storms to my north. 

The last 2 years I'm paying the piper. I actually have been fringed a lot. With some storms dropping significantly more just to my north and some just to my east. But in the macro sense I still can't complain. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think sometimes people misinterpret my analysis one one run as a prediction of future runs.   I didn't like the euro. That doesn't mean I think it's right. But I also don't like to sugar coat the bad evidence either. The euro did give me some pause. Mainly because a suppressed system is my bigger fear not north. But I think the euro and gfs meet in the middle again and we are ok. And I agree the euro probably comes north. But I hate predicting predictions. 

I'm completely liberated so it makes this sooo much easier. I don't care one way or the other. I really don't. If it snows then that's kick azz. If it whiffs then spring trophy rockfish season on the bay is only a couple weeks away. It's that simple. Life is good. 

[WeathermanB]

Euro was definitely not too great of a run at 12z. Doesn't phase with the northern stream, and is more progressive, so it is not really a long duration event anymore as per the Euro 12z and the

Southern vort doesn't quite get involved fast enough until it is too late. My interpretation is, that we are still 4-5 days out, and there is time for the Euro to shift back north again and favor DC Balt most of MD and DE. Don't sweat one model run.

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not panicking over one run of one model but that's not at all what we wanted to see, especially from the steadiest model over the past couple of days. Still a ways to go, but isn't this how the rug starts to get pulled all winter?

We are just fine. You should roll with the Chill model like me. Literally if @Bob ChiIIsays we’re good for now, than I’m cool as a cucumber. No need to sweat...I mean unless you’re eating thermonuclear chicken wings. Then by all means, let it pour out.  

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't judge ensembles by the mean anyways. The mean is skewed. I judge it by the % that give me the desired result. My bar for a "win" here is 6". You can think that's too high and I won't argue but that's my bar. 3-6 I wouldn't complain and it's not a fail but that's kinda a tie to me. Less then 3 is another fail. 

So...

0z

44% gave me 6"+. That was about in line with my 40% max expectations for a hit at medium range. But another factor is the misses were split between north and south evenly so the largest camp was hits. That matters too  

12z

Only 20% give me 6"+ but the worst part is 37/50 miss me south  that's now by far the majority camp.  Only 2 miss north.  1 is a flush hit but weak.  

Thats a major step back for up here.  It's not as bad further south.  But it was a step towards suppression.  Hopefully 0z amps up more.

 

 

Couldn't agree more with the way you use the ens members.  I've always thought the ind members snowfall have usefulness in the LR and, especially in the short range.  Use them as a hedge. 

Honestly, the euro run is right in the envelope of solutions from all big storms 4/5 days out.  2016 is the only storm I know of that most models showed a bullseye from 6 days out and had it every run up until the storm.  Although, I remember the euro kept the bullseye south and then came north at the last minute.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Dunno, doesn't look too bad. 

 

It's about the same if your are south of Baltimore. It's a worse run once you get north of Baltimore. North of me really took a hit. Places in PA went from 4" to barely 1" from 0z to 12z. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's about the same if your are south of Baltimore. It's a worse run once you get north of Baltimore. North of me really took a hit. Places in PA went from 4" to barely 1" from 0z to 12z. 

You worrying about a fringe job to the south is one of the best forecasting tools known to mankind

[WeathermanB]

Honestly elevation here isn't really an issue. I mean, we are 11 feet above sea level, i'm pretty sure my pond is getting rained on while i'm getting snow.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

You worrying about a fringe job to the south is one of the best forecasting tools known to mankind

John's weather forecasting stone

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

You worrying about a fringe job to the south is one of the best forecasting tools known to mankind

Agree now I’m worried the Euro might be too north.  

[87storms]

I think the only reason this stays south is if the storm just doesn’t amplify enough aka just flatten out upon approach.  Everything to the north looks fine.  I have a feeling this is our storm.

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

We are just fine. You should roll with the Chill model like me. Literally if @Bob ChiIIsays we’re good for now, than I’m cool as a cucumber. No need to sweat...I mean unless you’re eating thermonuclear chicken wings. Then by all means, let it pour out.  

Well at least you have a game to watch right now! Probably more tense about that than this storm at the moment. Unfortunately, my team can't even make the NIT! Stupid Terps.

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think sometimes people misinterpret my analysis one one run as a prediction of future runs.   I didn't like the euro. That doesn't mean I think it's right. But I also don't like to sugar coat the bad evidence either. The euro did give me some pause. Mainly because a suppressed system is my bigger fear not north. But I think the euro and gfs meet in the middle again and we are ok. And I agree the euro probably comes north. But I hate predicting predictions. 

You make s post similar to this a couple of times a year lol...you will do fine

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not panicking over one run of one model but that's not at all what we wanted to see, especially from the steadiest model over the past couple of days. Still a ways to go, but isn't this how the rug starts to get pulled all winter?

That there is panic language, buddy! (Not saying you're panicked, but when ya say that....others panic, lol) And yeah, because of the 50 ways we've failed this winter, a lot of us are gonna have trouble withstanding even a single unfavorable run (the longer you go without snow, the worse it gets!) And it just so happens that, on what may be just hiccup (hopefully), it shows the one way we've failed so many times this winter, lol If Happy hour is south...this place is gonna mutiny!

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You worrying about a fringe job to the south is one of the best forecasting tools known to mankind

I'm not worried yet but I think it's the most likely way I fail. I don't see both of these waves managing to go north of me and not produce snow here. Not in this pattern. I could invision a couple or weak waves failing to amplify and squashed south though. 

[GATECH]

So we looking at a Monday-Tuesday storm window, Tuesday-Wednesday, or Wednesday-Thursday?  Selfish reason I have a flight on Thursday at 1 from dca.  I know I know there is a ton up In The air, but if we get walloped I need to start thinking of plan b, c and d.  If it happens looks like a late Tuesday to late Wednesday dealio.

I have to be in Florida NLT Friday evening and I don’t trust the airlines, even when it’s sunny.  Thoughts?  

[Ji]

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

[MountainGeek]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

I wish @stormtracker would rise from the ashes and come back to drive the bus during these turbulent midrange days to provide the steady reassuring guidance he is so well-known for.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

I still think there’s some confusion with the models on which wave to amplify.  This is why I’m just happy there’s a storm at 120 hrs (which is still 5 days). We have room for improvements or no improvements or fails. It’s early still. The trough is still diggy. If it gets flatter I’ll be more concerned.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

It did and the para euro which is now the operational was even worse. Had one run that had almost nothing up here about 72 hours out. And the euro was consistently the most south with that one and thus busted the worse with the last 24 hour adjustment north that got the 20"+ totals 100 miles north of me into PA. Even to the end the euro had the sharp cutoff right around the mason Dixon line. 

[87storms]

Nam still has a bowling ball.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

Proof

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Nam still has a bowling ball.

2 level contour closed h5 at 84... it's in SE MO/S IL though

[psuhoffman]

For the record the heaviest snows missed philly to the northwest. So the euro is not perfect from this range. Not even in blocking with the stj. 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

2 level contour closed h5 at 84... it's in SE MO/S IL though

Yea prob closed off too early but just like that there’s still a storm lol

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Nam still has a bowling ball.

Yeah, it does. It's well outside of its useful range, so not much more that can be said other than that.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah, it does. It's well outside of its useful range, so not much more that can be said other than that.

Looks like the wave ejects out of Cali and some models wash it out and then re energize it as some NS energy dives down. Where it ends up might be determined by how that energy and blocking interact with it.

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I still think there’s some confusion with the models on which wave to amplify.  This is why I’m just happy there’s a storm at 120 hrs (which is still 5 days). We have room for improvements or no improvements or fails. It’s early still. The trough is still diggy. If it gets flatter I’ll be more concerned.

Yeah flat has been our second worst nightmare this season...definitely don't wanna see that!

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah flat has been our second worst nightmare this season...definitely don't wanna see that!

Not a fan of many things flat..