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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.


Ji

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:41 PM, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

 

 

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What would it take to form a hybrid?

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:41 PM, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

 

 

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Agree with this statement. Like PSU said, if both manage to work out and we get snow from both waves, it's like a 1/100 year event for March, but we're more likely to get some snow from either way. Curios as to what EPS says.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:29 PM, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

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Yeah... but the Euro was south this week as well... Look how it turned out for us.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:43 PM, Interstate said:

Yeah... but the Euro was south this week as well... Look how it turned out for us.

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That's not really apples to apples though. This is a closed ull moving laterally through the midwest. This past week was an intricate dance of a whole bunch of pieces. I get what you're saying but the comparison is very flawed. 

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:32 PM, psuhoffman said:

You all can pretend your happy the euro is south but I'm not. That doesn't mean I'm buying it. But it could be right. The cmc is close to this and suppressed the second wave. They both dive a NS vort down into New England and suppress the event. Sound familiar?  Again yea a compromise works here. I'm feeling pretty good about where we are now.

 But I'm not thrilled the euro is south and I'm not thrilled about why it is south. Id rather it not have that northern stream wave diving in there and show what it did last night. 

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Yeah how many times have we seen that? Would be ironic if this time it wrecked our dreams, and New England's, by suppressing everything south.  I mean it could happen. The first iteration of this event had a NS piece diving in, remember? Then everything trended towards breaking down the block quicker with the 50-50 escaping. Might be seeing a trend back to that earlier look up top, with the block and the vortices underneath staying in place longer.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:42 PM, Bob Chill said:

With 2 pieces running in succession we're (unfortunately) going to see run over run shifts for longer than any of us want. I'll say this though...the euro gave me some enthusiasm for wave 1. I'd prefer to take the easy way out. Just let that one track right, do it's job, and anything after is bonus. Euro barely budged through 72 hours in general with wave 1. Just a little bump south was all it did and we're not at long leads. It's entirely possible that wave 1 is the show and I have been discounting that possibility until just now. 

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It's the show, and frankly, we want it to be the show. Too often here when a first wave misses, it ends up screwing us up for the second wave. Want to cash in before hoping for the part 2 fantasy.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:38 PM, ers-wxman1 said:

Euro has either started a trend or is the outlier. Let’s hope it’s the latter. 

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Last time when the euro was south it was further south then this. It did come north some. And it had most other guidance on its side. This time it's on it's own. So I'm not as worried as I would be if all guidance looked this way. But I don't like that wave diving in on top again one bit. Hopefully the EPS looks better and this was just an outlier. 

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:42 PM, Bob Chill said:

With 2 pieces running in succession we're (unfortunately) going to see run over run shifts for longer than any of us want. I'll say this though...the euro gave me some enthusiasm for wave 1. I'd prefer to take the easy way out. Just let that one track right, do it's job, and anything after is bonus. Euro barely budged through 72 hours in general with wave 1. Just a little bump south was all it did and we're not at long leads. It's entirely possible that wave 1 is the show and I have been discounting that possibility until just now. 

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That first wave is going to roll through and roll out though. Sure, you might get 3-6 or 4-8 or something, but I'm all in on the big one at this point. Give me the WAA and then the CCB is where it's really at. Have it just bomb out and stall and just dump on us with nice ratios.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:41 PM, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

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Both

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  On 3/16/2018 at 6:58 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

If we get missed SOUTH AGAIN, in LATE MARCH, then this will easily cement this winter as the WORST in recorded history.  It'll be late March; it's supposed to snow to our NORTH.  But southern VA / NC?  Again?  I'd rather see Boston get 5 feet from this than see southern VA get 3".

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x100

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