I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

You've got 1+1, now you just need to work the equation and you'll be all caught up.

Not sure what you mean by that...

[87storms]

i'm in agreement that we want south.  i know that doesn't help the northerners, but in late march, i'd roll the dice on south and if we get another carolina beeliner so be it.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

 

 

What would it take to form a hybrid?

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

 

 

Agree with this statement. Like PSU said, if both manage to work out and we get snow from both waves, it's like a 1/100 year event for March, but we're more likely to get some snow from either way. Curios as to what EPS says.

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

Yeah... but the Euro was south this week as well... Look how it turned out for us.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What would it take to form a hybrid?

A prius

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah... but the Euro was south this week as well... Look how it turned out for us.

That's not really apples to apples though. This is a closed ull moving laterally through the midwest. This past week was an intricate dance of a whole bunch of pieces. I get what you're saying but the comparison is very flawed. 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You all can pretend your happy the euro is south but I'm not. That doesn't mean I'm buying it. But it could be right. The cmc is close to this and suppressed the second wave. They both dive a NS vort down into New England and suppress the event. Sound familiar?  Again yea a compromise works here. I'm feeling pretty good about where we are now.

 But I'm not thrilled the euro is south and I'm not thrilled about why it is south. Id rather it not have that northern stream wave diving in there and show what it did last night. 

Yeah how many times have we seen that? Would be ironic if this time it wrecked our dreams, and New England's, by suppressing everything south.  I mean it could happen. The first iteration of this event had a NS piece diving in, remember? Then everything trended towards breaking down the block quicker with the 50-50 escaping. Might be seeing a trend back to that earlier look up top, with the block and the vortices underneath staying in place longer.

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With 2 pieces running in succession we're (unfortunately) going to see run over run shifts for longer than any of us want. I'll say this though...the euro gave me some enthusiasm for wave 1. I'd prefer to take the easy way out. Just let that one track right, do it's job, and anything after is bonus. Euro barely budged through 72 hours in general with wave 1. Just a little bump south was all it did and we're not at long leads. It's entirely possible that wave 1 is the show and I have been discounting that possibility until just now. 

It's the show, and frankly, we want it to be the show. Too often here when a first wave misses, it ends up screwing us up for the second wave. Want to cash in before hoping for the part 2 fantasy.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A prius

Do the two pieces have a chance to phase?

[stormtracker]

South Mrs Tesmaucher

[aldie 22]

If this winter has taught some of you anything it is how to determine any negative thing on a model run whether real or not and then come on here and say it over and over again.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

South Mrs Tesmaucher

Superman II reference.  Nice

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Euro has either started a trend or is the outlier. Let’s hope it’s the latter. 

Last time when the euro was south it was further south then this. It did come north some. And it had most other guidance on its side. This time it's on it's own. So I'm not as worried as I would be if all guidance looked this way. But I don't like that wave diving in on top again one bit. Hopefully the EPS looks better and this was just an outlier. 

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With 2 pieces running in succession we're (unfortunately) going to see run over run shifts for longer than any of us want. I'll say this though...the euro gave me some enthusiasm for wave 1. I'd prefer to take the easy way out. Just let that one track right, do it's job, and anything after is bonus. Euro barely budged through 72 hours in general with wave 1. Just a little bump south was all it did and we're not at long leads. It's entirely possible that wave 1 is the show and I have been discounting that possibility until just now. 

That first wave is going to roll through and roll out though. Sure, you might get 3-6 or 4-8 or something, but I'm all in on the big one at this point. Give me the WAA and then the CCB is where it's really at. Have it just bomb out and stall and just dump on us with nice ratios.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Any word on the GEPS?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro has a day 9-10 threat fwiw.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Do the two pieces have a chance to phase?

Absolutely. We're still at d4-5. I'd say we have a full 48 hours before making calls on how the 2 pieces work together and even then there's still time for surprises (good and bad). 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Any word on the GEPS?

I heard they continue the trend of that thing you have been saying is going to happen

[Jandurin]

13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If we do fail like the Euro shows that to me is a much more acceptable failure than an NYC to BOS crushjob, I'd be happy to see Charlottesville get a foot.  

Opposite for me.

[Jandurin]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

Both

[EastCoast NPZ]

If we get missed SOUTH AGAIN, in LATE MARCH, then this will easily cement this winter as the WORST in recorded history.  It'll be late March; it's supposed to snow to our NORTH.  But southern VA / NC?  Again?  I'd rather see Boston get 5 feet from this than see southern VA get 3".

[Jandurin]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

If we get missed SOUTH AGAIN, in LATE MARCH, then this will easily cement this winter as the WORST in recorded history.  It'll be late March; it's supposed to snow to our NORTH.  But southern VA / NC?  Again?  I'd rather see Boston get 5 feet from this than see southern VA get 3".

x100

[psuhoffman]

Jma is suppressed 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has a day 9-10 threat fwiw.

Tell me about the snow in May while you’re at it

[Jandurin]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Jma is suppressed 

lol

i don't think i've ever seen the jma do anything right

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jma is suppressed 

As bad as the Euro?  Well this is complicated as everyone said so this just adds to it

[WeathermanB]

Here we go again with the Euro.. now has snow to the south. We barely get anything, i call bs.

[clskinsfan]

Once Randy talks about getting back on the storm bus:

 

[psuhoffman]

Did anyone ever post the U.K.?