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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Might end up being exactly that... LOL, we know who to blame!

 

 

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

EPS - Better be! Then again.. I already jumped on winter

 

 

 

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ErinInTheSky

ErinInTheSky

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

Yeah. This Op run looks like it'll produce a pretty great EPS. Remember last Op run had a ton of hits that went a bit north of us and we were on the southern side of the storm.

 

I don't believe for one second that this Euro run is going to be how it pans out, not after seeing every other run. Although it would be hilarious considering our season and our most common way of failing this season.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

You all can pretend your happy the euro is south but I'm not. That doesn't mean I'm buying it. But it could be right. The cmc is close to this and suppressed the second wave. They both dive a NS vort down into New England and suppress the event. Sound familiar?  Again yea a compromise works here. I'm feeling pretty good about where we are now.

 But I'm not thrilled the euro is south and I'm not thrilled about why it is south. Id rather it not have that northern stream wave diving in there and show what it did last night. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

Explains how complex this situation is.  But shred factory and south is not something I imagined.  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The run sucks for our yards. It's an epic disaster if you marry it

Verbatim.

I'd marry it though. I kinda like seeing a suppressed run at this juncture from the Euro. Gives me confidence this really could end up falling in place for our region.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You all can pretend your happy the euro is south but I'm not. That doesn't mean I'm buying it. But it could be right. The cmc is close to this and suppressed the second wave. They both dive a NS vort down into New England and suppress the event. Sound familiar?  Again yea a compromise works here. I'm feeling pretty good about where we are now.

 But I'm not thrilled the euro is south and I'm not thrilled about why it is south. Id rather it not have that northern stream wave diving in there and show what it did last night. 

Agree! No celebrating south solutions this year.. they have come true!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah. This Op run looks like it'll produce a pretty great EPS. Remember last Op run had a ton of hits that went a bit north of us and we were on the southern side of the storm.

 

I don't believe for one second that this Euro run is going to be how it pans out, not after seeing every other run. Although it would be hilarious considering our season and our most common way of failing this season.

The thing that I really liked about the euro is that IF piece #1 is the big show, we're in a great spot for it. Literally 100 miles away from a legit event and my gut is basically screaming that there is no chance in hell that it doesn't come north. The biggest risk is too far north as opposed to a complete miss south. Ji is freaking out right now there. 100% chance that forecast is right. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody north of EZF is going to like this run. Personally, I'm very relieved that it came in south with the front runner but the shred factory on piece #2 and complete lack of interaction left nothing to be desired. I expect the EPS to be loaded up though. 

i need to purchase euro products, but i don't think this whole wave 1 vs 2 is a done deal.  i would think one of them would dampen out.  these vorts seem to be acting like pinwheels right now.  

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

Both models could show how we get snow.  To say one is wrong over the other just doesn't make sense at this time.  Whichever wave becomes the main player is how this storm will go.  Will it be the 1st and we get front thumped? (Euro) Or washed out primary and wait for back end thump from tail end wave?(GFS)

 

 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You all can pretend your happy the euro is south but I'm not. That doesn't mean I'm buying it. But it could be right. The cmc is close to this and suppressed the second wave. They both dive a NS vort down into New England and suppress the event. Sound familiar?  Again yea a compromise works here. I'm feeling pretty good about where we are now.

 But I'm not thrilled the euro is south and I'm not thrilled about why it is south. Id rather it not have that northern stream wave diving in there and show what it did last night. 

In this winter, why would anyone NOT be worried about it being south?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Euro has either started a trend or is the outlier. Let’s hope it’s the latter. 

With 2 pieces running in succession we're (unfortunately) going to see run over run shifts for longer than any of us want. I'll say this though...the euro gave me some enthusiasm for wave 1. I'd prefer to take the easy way out. Just let that one track right, do it's job, and anything after is bonus. Euro barely budged through 72 hours in general with wave 1. Just a little bump south was all it did and we're not at long leads. It's entirely possible that wave 1 is the show and I have been discounting that possibility until just now. 

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