I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ever heard of the composer Schumann's imaginary friends? Lol You must be one of Randy's!!

Hey now.

 

On another note, I'm about to fix this ICON talk.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’m seeing one that snows for 24+ hours

Reading here and then looking at TT was an interesting head scratcher for sure.  

[Cobalt]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh is that why it shows holes like that? Lol Now it makes sense

It did that a ton with the first subfreezing temps in November. Not sure if it's right, but I'm pretty sure DC proper is not the surface of the sun

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It was a bit of a head fake...thats why, as you said, it's not that wise to judge a model run too early, lol

It wasn’t a head fake...everyone should understand the frontrunning WAA is likely all rain unless you’re well north in our forum or out in the mountains.  It seems that people saw rain initially and then jumped off a cliff.  

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was sitting here and I'm like..wait..don't they know that front runner stuff was always going to be rain on the GFS?

Ji will tell you he lost 30" because the front end is now rain

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was sitting here and I'm like..wait..don't they know that front runner stuff was always going to be rain on the GFS?

Exactly. @ers-wxman1 posted a few minutes ago. The "show" doesn't start until after that stuff moves through. It really is that simple. Can we fail? Yea, no doubt it can all come together wrong. But seeing heights/thicknesses tick north with the front runner doesn't mean jack S. The upper level stuff was a bit close for comfort but still totally workable on the gfs. CMC looks totally good. Icon is good enough. Euro will probably lose a little ground too at the onset but our ONLY show is what happens after the low gets east of us AND the trailing upper level energy catches up to it. We're absolutely in the game for that across ALL guidance. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Are people seeing the same GFS I’m seeing?  

Question is are people only looking at surface maps while ignoring key changes at 500mb?? The gfs is whacky at 500mb with 2nd bowling ball which doesnt reflect down at surface. Imo it trended towards more of a kicker look irt that feature yet it somehow causes surface development. I dunno, maybe just me but comparing the last 3 runs aloft, while fantastic at surface, doesnt add up to what the gfs just tossed at us. Hope im wrong and 18z is total and utter happy hour.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It wasn’t a head fake...everyone should understand the frontrunning WAA is likely all rain unless you’re well north in our forum or out in the mountains.  It seems that people saw rain initially and then jumped off a cliff.  

Agreed, but look at h5 trends for round 2.....

[87storms]

Just now, nj2va said:

It wasn’t a head fake...everyone should understand the frontrunning WAA is likely all rain unless you’re well north in our forum or out in the mountains.  It seems that people saw rain initially and then jumped off a cliff.  

It looks like it’s all about wave 2 on the gfs and how it interacts with the first wave and the NS. Onto the euro.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

It did that a ton with the first subfreezing temps in November. Not sure if it's right, but I'm pretty sure DC proper is not the surface of the sun

Although in the summer time it seems to come pretty close...lol I look at those temps in the summer and I'm like "man, that place is a frying pan!"

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better then 6z imo. Initial wave was pretty identical but it was south with wave 2. Small shift in the right direction. 

Confluence was weaker initially as the primary is moving east (slightly north track) but then builds again as it is entering the eastern US (coastal development farther south and quicker). Thought it was a more promising run then the 06Z. Get that initial coastal to stay strong off the coast and not have to wait for coastal redevelopment and I think we are possible looking at a substantial storm right off of the Delmarva. 

[H2O]

thread needs to be pinned

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are people seeing the same GFS I’m seeing?  

Question is are people only looking at surface maps while ignoring key changes at 500mb?? The gfs is whacky at 500mb with 2nd bowling ball which doesnt reflect down at surface. Imo it trended towards more of a kicker look irt that feature yet it somehow causes surface development. I dunno, maybe just me but comparing the last 3 runs aloft, while fantastic at surface, doesnt add up to what the gfs just tossed at us. Hope im wrong and 18z is total and utter happy hour.

Don't take this the wrong way but I pretty much want to throw your computer in the delaware river when I see your signature. 

Also, who gives a crap about verbatim solutions right now? We're not at that level of detail yet. The GFS was perfectly acceptable for rapid development and heavy precip with upper level energy. The short version of my analysis is that the GFS will work in all of our yards. All eyes on the euro. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It wasn’t a head fake...everyone should understand the frontrunning WAA is likely all rain unless you’re well north in our forum or out in the mountains.  It seems that people saw rain initially and then jumped off a cliff.  

I usually do my play by play in isolation. I miss all the silly posts. Maybe I should go back and look for entertainment purposes.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Don't take this the wrong way but I pretty much want to throw your computer in the delaware river when I see your signature. 

Also, who gives a crap about verbatim solutions right now? We're not at that level of detail yet. The GFS was perfectly acceptable for rapid development and heavy precip with upper level energy. The short version of my analysis is that the GFS will work in all of our yards. All eyes on the euro. 

I agree with this. No offense to Ralph, but it's hard to take him seriously when he talks about our region's snow hole when he has 40" of snow

[WxUSAF]

GGEM is all snow with the WAA for DC and points north. And then misses the tail end to the south. But still gives an acceptable 12” or so.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. @ers-wxman1 posted a few minutes ago. The "show" doesn't start until after that stuff moves through. It really is that simple. Can we fail? Yea, no doubt it can all come together wrong. But seeing heights/thicknesses tick north with the front runner doesn't mean jack S. The upper level stuff was a bit close for comfort but still totally workable on the gfs. CMC looks totally good. Icon is good enough. Euro will probably lose a little ground too at the onset but our ONLY show is what happens after the low gets east of us AND the trailing upper level energy catches up to it. We're absolutely in the game for that across ALL guidance. 

Surprised how good the  CMC looks.

[Bob Chill]

Here's my final post on the 12z gfs. I'm totally good with how this ball gets where it gets. It was a good run.

[Cobalt]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is all snow with the WAA for DC and points north. And then misses the tail end to the south. But still gives an acceptable 12” or so.

Lol just hug the GGEM for now

[yoda]

I like the CMC... once again 2nd portion misses south of us... but major hit with the first wave

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

CMC snow the first wave, The details wont be ironed out for a while still. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is all snow with the WAA for DC and points north. And then misses the tail end to the south. But still gives an acceptable 12” or so.

Fail.  Ji is looking for 20"

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Surprised how good the  CMC looks.

The CMC was inches from a PD2 long duration multi-foot shellacking. It was a great run. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is all snow with the WAA for DC and points north. And then misses the tail end to the south. But still gives an acceptable 12” or so.

Would you or somebody mind defining what exactly the WAA is? (Forgive the novice question, but I'm still learning, lol)

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is all snow with the WAA for DC and points north. And then misses the tail end to the south. But still gives an acceptable 12” or so.

Yeah interesting take it has on the evolution. Its colder/further south than last run with the lead too.

[MillvilleWx]

That H5 progression was closer to a major hit than a dud on the 12z GFS. Broad area of diffluent flow with the upper low passing just south of the area. Jet couplet off the eastern seaboard with low development and tuck near the coast. There was even a reinvigoration of the jet max off New England that helped pop another low and keep it snowing into Wednesday night. That wasn’t a bad run at all imo. It’s going to take a lot for areas outside the favored climo spots to stay snow or mostly snow with the initial WAA thump. We should maintain attention to the second round of the storm as Bob and others have mentioned. That’s the main show for here. I’m curious to see how the Euro pans out. If it holds steady, then you have to wonder if GFS is just coming in too amplified. ICON is way too jumpy to give much merit at this point.


.

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Would you or somebody mind defining what exactly the WAA is? (Forgive the novice question, but I'm still learning, lol)

Warm Air Advection. Warmer air moving into a region raising the temperature in that region. (To put it bluntly )

[Ralph Wiggum]

Don't take this the wrong way but I pretty much want to throw your computer in the delaware river when I see your signature. 
Also, who gives a crap about verbatim solutions right now? We're not at that level of detail yet. The GFS was perfectly acceptable for rapid development and heavy precip with upper level energy. The short version of my analysis is that the GFS will work in all of our yards. All eyes on the euro. 

No harm no foul Bob Chill. Im just looking at that strengthening lobe of the 50/50 trying to throw a wrench into things. This is EXACTLY what HM urged caution about yesterday. Yes, verbatim meh. I wouldnt dare take a run at this range vebatim. But again, lets hope that NS 500 mb feature doesnt muck things up as we move forward. It could actually help a great deal too, that I realize. Im just trying to be cautious still for now and see what can go wrong rather than just what looks right.

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Are people seeing the same GFS I’m seeing?  

Question is are people only looking at surface maps while ignoring key changes at 500mb?? The gfs is whacky at 500mb with 2nd bowling ball which doesnt reflect down at surface. Imo it trended towards more of a kicker look irt that feature yet it somehow causes surface development. I dunno, maybe just me but comparing the last 3 runs aloft, while fantastic at surface, doesnt add up to what the gfs just tossed at us. Hope im wrong and 18z is total and utter happy hour.

I might be missing the key changes (unless you’re referencing a closed 500 low over MN) you’re talking about but all I see is a closed 500 low making an acceptable pass for our region.  I don’t see it acting as a kicker at all.  

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's my final post on the 12z gfs. I'm totally good with how this ball gets where it gets. It was a good run.

That’s always been the feature I’ve been looking at but it’s just jumped around a bit with timing.  I don’t look at precip maps as often anymore. Too jumpy at this range. It’s all about the vort pass. That said I still think I’d like that whole setup to be a notch south for both initial wave and 2nd.