I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[ErinInTheSky]

Never mind. Punch number 2 gets slurped up.

 

Cmon Euro!

[87storms]

Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm tossing the GFS until the Euro crashes the party, or until the GFS looks as good as the euro.

the southern vort certainly looks better with wave 2.  just not sure how the NS looks.  the mets may need to chime in to clear out the mud.

[stormtracker]

Not as bad as people are making it out to be

[stormtracker]

my friend said

[BristowWx]

132..maybe better

[SlamSlam]

wave 2 might be warm as well tbh.
also, not a big fan of that closed low in the upper midwest.  looks like an epic setup, but just not sure who would win in this scenario:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031612&fh=114
we need the euro to show something cleaner.

Western Maryland and much of interior PA. Looks to move fairly quick.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Never mind. Punch number 2 gets slurped up.

 

Cmon Euro!

It's still going at 132 on TT

[Staged]

Another low popping up at 132

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Never mind. Punch number 2 gets slurped up.

 

Cmon Euro!

It pops a second low off the coast even after the New England low goes north. wow

[Scraff]

Whoa at hr 132. 

This could be the one...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not fork time yet, but for anyone interested I have discounted tix available from now thru 0z after which time prices will increase.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s better than 6z. I wish people that have no idea how to read models would stop posting.

[ErinInTheSky]

I guess the GFS will do literally the opposite of what I say, so...

 

”yup, the low is dumping absolutely nothing on us”

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Not as bad as people are making it out to be

I tried to provide reasonable and rational analysis. I also think my gut instincts are right so I'll save some people some heartache if they listen to me...just forget about the warm air advection with the front runner. FORGET ABOUT IT. If someone can't get over failing on that then they need to jump onto reddit or something. 

[nj2va]

Are people seeing the same GFS I’m seeing?  

[Cobalt]

Just play off the belief the GFS sucks at thermals & underdoes precip, m kayy?

[ers-wxman1]

If evolving parts are being depicted correctly, this could be a highly anomalous event. First wave is all WAA. Nothing more than a mix, perhaps start as wet snow then rain. 500 trough is juiced up. Jet energy gets loaded and if it captures could be quite a dump of snow not to mention wind and tidal issues for pretty much everyone from VA to ME. 

[Staged]

As bad as it looked at first, still manages to give us 6-10

[LP08]

It’s just lighter on precip through the cities with wave 2...juice that up and it’s similar to other models showing the better punch

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Are people seeing the same GFS I’m seeing?  

I’m seeing one that snows for 24+ hours

[psuhoffman]

Gfs better then 6z imo. Initial wave was pretty identical but it was south with wave 2. Small shift in the right direction. 

[Superstorm]

I think it’s much better than 6z.


.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

my friend said

Ever heard of the composer Schumann's imaginary friends? Lol You must be one of Randy's!!

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Obligatory DC Snow Hole pic.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Obligatory DC Snow Hole pic.

GFS does that with thermals. Overdoes the UHI. Could be right, but not to that extent. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better then 6z imo. Initial wave was pretty identical but it was south with wave 2. Small shift in the right direction. 

It was a bit of a head fake...thats why, as you said, it's not that wise to judge a model run too early, lol

[WhiteoutMD]

The snow map is LOL LOL you can make this up 

[StantonParkHoya]

Someone really needs to fix the UHI inputs in the GFS. You’d think DC was an erupting volcano.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I tried to provide reasonable and rational analysis. I also think my gut instincts are right so I'll save some people some heartache if they listen to me...just forget about the warm air advection with the front runner. FORGET ABOUT IT. If someone can't get over failing on that then they need to jump onto reddit or something. 

I was sitting here and I'm like..wait..don't they know that front runner stuff was always going to be rain on the GFS?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Cobalt said:

GFS does that with thermals. Overdoes the UHI. Could be right, but not to that extent. 

Oh is that why it shows holes like that? Lol Now it makes sense