I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

So this is a two low evaluation? first looks marginal temps wise second one on its heels could deliver?  I could see the second low not working out because it takes to long to organize and the prcip shield skips us.  MAN WE CAN not get simple solution. What happened to the straight up miller A gulf lows up the coast?  When was the last one we had like that in winter?

Nina happened. 

[ers-wxman1]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

even notice how when ers-wxman posts mdecoy is nowhere to be found and vice versa?  hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

It’s a conspiracy. It’s a planned event to spur scorn in the forums. ;-). 

[MountainGeek]

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We are good so far.  ers-wxman1 has not posted yet.  I understand that he has good analysis... but usually only comes around where it is negative analysis

Careful -- he's WATCHING YOU!

and Ninja'd by ERS.

[ers-wxman1]

I have been recovering from my NOVA snowhole of the last event. I’m intrigued by this upcoming system, a lot of moving parts, but good ones even by Mid March standards. I’m very cautiously optimistic. 

[snowmagnet]

This is such fun- one last try before Spring.  I guess we all hold our breath until the Euro runs and then happy hour will start early - either drowning our sorrows or celebrating. I feel good about this one. The Euro lost us last week at day 7..,, we only have 4-5 days left to do this. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, MountainGeek said:

Careful -- he's WATCHING YOU!

and Ninja'd by ERS.

Maybe he is a Jedi?

[Interstate]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

I have been recovering from my NOVA snowhole of the last event. I’m intrigued by this upcoming system, a lot of moving parts, but good ones even by Mid March standards. I’m very cautiously optimistic. 

This is like us common folk saying "ALL IN"

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, hypothetically, if the Euro is another good run, is there room  on y’all’s bus?   I’m asking for a friend

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

So this is a two low evaluation? first looks marginal temps wise second one on its heels could deliver?  I could see the second low not working out because it takes to long to organize and the prcip shield skips us.  MAN WE CAN not get simple solution. What happened to the straight up miller A gulf lows up the coast?  When was the last one we had like that in winter?

Jan 2016...lol

[Interstate]

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, hypothetically, if the Euro is another good run, is there room  on y’all’s bus?   I’m asking for a friend

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fixed that for you PSU.

eta: Dam site hates pics.

[George BM]

Random Post Alert:

 

Tomorrow still has some limited support for snow tv. NAMs aren't as "bullish" though.

[87storms]

this storm is either going to be a buffalo...or an arizona.

probably not everyone will get that joke.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 87storms said:

this storm is either going to be a buffalo...or an arizona.

probably not everyone will get that joke.

 

I don't even follow basketball like that and I happened to get it...lol

[87storms]

navgem was an improvement, but it does continue that back to back systems idea.  would be interesting if that's how things turned out.

[87storms]

not really sure how seriously to take the navgem but it's not the only solution like this we've seen...

storm 1:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018031606&fh=108

storm 2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018031606&fh=138

[BristowWx]

It already looks warmer at the mid levels to me than previous runs...just following the 540

[WhiteoutMD]

the train track has been laid down for the next storm CHOOO CHOOO

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

navgem was an improvement, but it does continue that back to back systems idea.  would be interesting if that's how things turned out.

The second piece is the real deal for you and me. I fully expect the first piece to evolve into cold rain until you get pretty far north. I'd be shocked if the first piece brings any meaningful snowfall to our yards honestly. 

[aldie 22]

Since the NE got 3 storms in a row maybe we can get 3 with this one storm alone to catch up

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Since the NE got 3 storms in a row maybe we can get 3 with this one storm alone to catch up

or they get 4 and we get none

[psuhoffman]

Icon went north/warm 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The second piece is the real deal for you and me. I fully expect the first piece to evolve into cold rain until you get pretty far north. I'd be shocked if the first piece brings any meaningful snowfall to our yards honestly. 

yea i don't really know what to think about it other than...unresolved. lol

i would imagine there's better consensus with the 12z's...hopefully.

[aldie 22]

I'm out

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The second piece is the real deal for you and me. I fully expect the first piece to evolve into cold rain until you get pretty far north. I'd be shocked if the first piece brings any meaningful snowfall to our yards honestly. 

I agree if there is separation. But if it evolves into one system where the initial low stalls and just redevelops then the first being north will pull the next north also. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon went north/warm 

oh oh. Watch the GFS be right. Basically, whatever model gives us no snow is the one that will win

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The bowling ball is north at 81 and heights out front a little higher. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

oh oh. Watch the GFS be right. Basically, whatever model gives us no snow is the one that will win

It will be ok

[anotherman]

The ICON and GGEM are so bad.

[MountainGeek]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're fine. You can be negative. And others can push back a bit. It's a discussion. 

Exactly -- no one has issues with legit disagreement or discussion based on model evolution/features. 

But it would be great if we could cut back on the "pointless" negativity where people feel then need to keep repeating things that EVERYONE knows and is already taking into account.

For the sake of this last thread this winter, can we at least lay off the sun angle, DST extra hour of daylight, "it can't snow in March", "this won't happen because there are no more snow days for the schools in DE", seasonal memory, "it can't accumulate in March", etc etc