I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Interstate]

biggest run of the winter?

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

On another note, is anyone pins this thread I will cut their digital throat

i still cant pin threads  

[showmethesnow]

Extrapolating from the 24 hr GFS this should be an epic hit. Best guess at this point is a 972 mb low just off of OC with 40 to 50 mph winds reaching into the cities. Probably a high ratio storm where we see 1 1/2 to 2' totals region wide.

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

On another note, is anyone pins this thread I will cut their digital throat

And then after they digitally bleed out, I will use their husk like shell of a body to store all of the printed out snow maps from this year.    And then I will delete this thread.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Extrapolating from the 24 hr GFS this should be an epic hit. Best guess at this point is a 972 mb low just off of OC with 40 to 50 mph winds reaching into the cities. Probably a high ratio storm where we see 1 1/2 to 2' totals region wide.

You are not long for this forum. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You are not long for this forum. 

That would be the equivalent of a mercy killing. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I’m trying not to get invested, but this stuff is engrained in my DNA to track until the bitter end. Emphasis on bitter


.

 

 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to the club... We go down with the ship. 

I'm with you guys--try as I may  I know I'm not gonna be able to peel my eyes away from this one...But this time I refuse to stress over it and will watch with VERY tempered expectations...I think I could honestly laugh if it turns into a 4th Nor'easter that we somehow miss...missing three would certainly numb the pain of missing a fourth. But, for now...I will occasionally track. (But if I see a GL low I'm out, lol) But FOUR Nor'easters?....its gotta break eventually...

[frd]

Brrrr

 

 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

This is great news, 2 years in a row this area has lost all of their plum / apricot blossoms 

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And then after they digitally bleed out, I will use their husk like shell of a body to store all of the printed out snow maps from this year.    And then I will delete this thread.

Same book, same page. We got this. 

[yoda]

As Ji would say -- we lost the ICON

[showmethesnow]

By hour 96 we see the blocking over Greenland coming in a little weaker compared to the 06Z run. A good thing hopefully.

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember the excitement in December?  In late January about the awesome -NAO.  How much did we get out of that, I can't remember.   Pepperidge Farm remembers though.  **** this winter. 

1942!!!!

im kidding but in the back of my mind I do know something like that or 1956 or 1958 or 1964.... years where some really really late fluke hit up here will eventually happen again. It's even more rare in DC but a couple did hit with solid snow there too.  And 1942 is the ultimate example because it was a shutout winter until that 10-30" storm hit late March. 

Those have become increasing rare the last few years aside. Spring snow was way more common pre 1970. But on the other hand march blocking has become more rare too. It was way more common when march snow was more common. Obvious link. We have blocking now so perhaps looking at the 40s through 60s isn't a bad analog. 

But im also not blind to how long the odds are. We're talking a 1/30 year type event now. But those odds aren't impossible just highly unlikely. Their enough to keep me somewhat interested even if I know a fail is 90% likely the outcome. 

[MountainGeek]

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Thank you Ji

 

Actually I think Ji hacked stormtracker's account after he self-banned, and is now posing as him. Ji with admin powers.....can you imagine?

[yoda]

I guess this is the timeframe we are watching... hr 156 has a 1004mb SLP in NW AL/NE MS/S TN region

162 -- 1002mb SLP W NC/NW SC

[showmethesnow]

Actually not a bad look at hour 144. Upstairs looks a little better where the 50/50 looks to setup in a little more favorable location. Shortwave isn't digging as much but it is stronger and we are seeing better ridging develop in front of it. Ridging should hopefully induce better digging a little later in the run.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

[yoda]

165 998mb SLP NW of ILM in NC

168 998mb SLP just NE of ILM (SLP moving offshore)

[WVclimo]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Brrrr

 

 

So far through 12 days, the mean temperature for March at DCA is 42.7.  February finished at 45.3.  Last year was only the 7th time ever that March finished colder than February in DC.  If it happens again this year, it would be the first time back-to-back years had that happen since 1890-91.

Other years were 1887, 1909, 1960, 1984 and 1932 which has been an analog that has popped up often since last year's hurricane season.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

165 998mb SLP NW of ILM in NC

168 998mb SLP just NE of ILM (SLP moving offshore)

171 996mb SLP SE OF OBX ~100 miles or so

[psuhoffman]

Lol we're still doing play by play on a day 7 storm in mid march. We are either that devoted or that crazy. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

171 996mb SLP SE OF OBX ~100 miles or so

Good enough for me at day 7

[wxdude64]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1942!!!!

im kidding but in the back of my mind I do know something like that or 1956 or 1958 or 1964.... years where some really really late fluke hit up here will eventually happen again. It's even more rare in DC but a couple did hit with solid snow there too.  And 1942 is the ultimate example because it was a shutout winter until that 10-30" storm hit late March. 

Those have become increasing rare the last few years aside. Spring snow was way more common pre 1970. But on the other hand march blocking has become more rare too. It was way more common when march snow was more common. Obvious link. We have blocking now so perhaps looking at the 40s through 60s isn't a bad analog. 

But im also not blind to how long the odds are. We're talking a 1/30 year type event now. But those odds aren't impossible just highly unlikely. Their enough to keep me somewhat interested even if I know a fail is 90% likely the outcome. 

Agree and I am watching. Interesting how it took SEVERAL misses to finally get a hit down this way, although I know it torqued the screws into the N/NE areas. Maybe THIS one will cover the entire area for once this winter.

[Jandurin]

It's the last chance before the last chance.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Good enough for me at day 7

12z GFS drops 2-4/3-5 over most of us... looks good 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS drops 2-4" over most of us... looks good 

Fringed

[yoda]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Fringed

I do like the 2mT map at 174... its like we get our own CAD due to the snowfall rates I assume since most of LWX CWA is 30-32 degrees

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS drops 2-4/3-5 over most of us... looks good 

looks like it can't turn the corner but I would think this is where we want it in March...too far north and warm solution is on the table.  it would be nice snow with those 850s I think

[Scraff]

Why does the low go out and not up!? We waiting for a full capture (of the weenie hearts) on the happy hour GFS I guess?

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Fringed

Guess I shouldn't bother looking in my local then.

Thought we saw a small move towards the EPS here. Blocking came in a little weaker. 50/50 was positioned better. And it looks as if the GFS is now starting to consider the possibility of breaking that blocking down in this time frame.