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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

0z cmc looks a bit better than 12z too, but still not as consolidated and pops a random coastal after the first coastal.  what's starting to stand out is the models seem to show a high pressing down from canada, not retreating.  i would think this storm can't get too far north in that setup, though i would say a snowstorm from start to finish is probably unrealistic expectations this time of year (even if possible).

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Sorry if any of this has been said. I had a busy morning with work and haven't had time to catch up on the thread yet. I'm sure the euro had people celebrating and I'm equally sure the gfs then has some nervous. 

My take... the gfs is north of ALL guidance right now and it is because of the same thing it was doing last week. It's way more amplified with the initial wave into the TN/OH valley. It's about 5mb deeper and north of all other guidance there.   That was the same mistake it made when it was north of all guidance last time and teased the crap out of us.  

From there everything ends up north.  It drives the primary further north which causes more ridging in front which transfers north which causes the ccb to be north.  The dominoes all fall wrong.  But I don't buy it.  It did the same thing last time when it was on an island and was wrong.  

My guess is a compromise again.  This time that could work.  A solution half way between the gfs and euro is still a pretty good one for most of the forum.  The EPS actually went south some.  The cmc misses us south with the second wave.  The other b team members look good. The gfs is the outlier and it's not that bad. Gefs is only slightly north of where we want. But again the gfs is alone in being that amplified in the Ohio valley. How did that just end?

So I'm actually fine with the gfs where it is.  I have no crystal ball.  Maybe this time it's right and we get screwed again but that's not the best bet based on recent model bias in this pattern. If everything plays out exactly how it has been this is where we want all the guidance. 

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, peribonca said:

law of averages... things have to even out at some point

Problem is, next winter will tell us "Hey we gave you your perfect setup last year. Sorry it didn't work because it was march. Not our problem. We don't owe you anything".

 

 

 

 

I don't hold out much hope for this storm. Seems the track has to be perfect. Very little room for error. Someone is going to get hosed. This is falling in the day time, right? What are surface temps looking like? Am I being too "negative" to not get excited about snowfall during the day with temps in the mid 30's in late march?

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
Problem is, next winter will tell us "Hey we gave you your perfect setup last year. Sorry it didn't work because it was march. Not our problem. We don't owe you anything".
 
 
 
 
I don't hold out much hope for this storm. Seems the track has to be perfect. Very little room for error. Someone is going to get hosed. This is falling in the day time, right? What are surface temps looking like? Am I being too "negative" to not get excited about snowfall during the day with temps in the mid 30's in late march?

Who says it'll fall during the day?


.
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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry if any of this has been said. I had a busy morning with work and haven't had time to catch up on the thread yet. I'm sure the euro had people celebrating and I'm equally sure the gfs then has some nervous. 

My take... the gfs is north of ALL guidance right now and it is because of the same thing it was doing last week. It's way more amplified with the initial wave into the TN/OH valley. It's about 5mb deeper and north of all other guidance there.   That was the same mistake it made when it was north of all guidance last time and teased the crap out of us.  

From there everything ends up north.  It drives the primary further north which causes more ridging in front which transfers north which causes the ccb to be north.  The dominoes all fall wrong.  But I don't buy it.  It did the same thing last time when it was on an island and was wrong.  

My guess is a compromise again.  This time that could work.  A solution half way between the gfs and euro is still a pretty good one for most of the forum.  The EPS actually went south some.  The cmc misses us south with the second wave.  The other b team members look good. The gfs is the outlier and it's not that bad. Gefs is only slightly north of where we want. But again the gfs is alone in being that amplified in the Ohio valley. How did that just end?

So I'm actually fine with the gfs where it is.  I have no crystal ball.  Maybe this time it's right and we get screwed again but that's not the best bet based on recent model bias in this pattern. If everything plays out exactly how it has been this is where we want all the guidance. 

Yeah, i mentioned that earlier in a much less technical way. Thank you for your thorough explanation. I agree the GFS can stay north and I'll be fine as long as we don't see other models go in that direction. The GFS may even hold out on the more northerly solution until almost game time. It's done that before. 

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SnowGolfBro

SnowGolfBro

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

Problem is, next winter will tell us "Hey we gave you your perfect setup last year. Sorry it didn't work because it was march. Not our problem. We don't owe you anything".

 

 

 

 

I don't hold out much hope for this storm. Seems the track has to be perfect. Very little room for error. Someone is going to get hosed. This is falling in the day time, right? What are surface temps looking like? Am I being too "negative" to not get excited about snowfall during the day with temps in the mid 30's in late march?

Looks like a prolonged event i doubt the timing is  locked in at this point. More interested in the setup but i think we should like our chances 5 days out.

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Problem is, next winter will tell us "Hey we gave you your perfect setup last year. Sorry it didn't work because it was march. Not our problem. We don't owe you anything".

 

 

 

 

I don't hold out much hope for this storm. Seems the track has to be perfect. Very little room for error. Someone is going to get hosed. This is falling in the day time, right? What are surface temps looking like? Am I being too "negative" to not get excited about snowfall during the day with temps in the mid 30's in late march?

Track, Dynamics, and Rates. 

Anyone who follows this board regularly would not make a comment like this. 

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WeSuck said:

Are we going to risk creating a new thread since this one is at 50 pages, or do we continue with Ji's last ditch effort to save winter thread?

Everyone knows that keeping the thread going/not pinning it will not guarantee snow. Duh. However, why not? With this winter? Why the heck not. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WeSuck said:

Are we going to risk creating a new thread since this one is at 50 pages, or do we continue with Ji's last ditch effort to save winter thread?

We should let this one run. The 50 page thing is from the old board. The new board doesn't make any difference how big a thread gets. And I'd probably want to cut a digital throat or 2 if someone locks this and starts a new one. I'm not superstitious or anything. I just like threatening random people on the internet. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry if any of this has been said. I had a busy morning with work and haven't had time to catch up on the thread yet. I'm sure the euro had people celebrating and I'm equally sure the gfs then has some nervous. 

My take... the gfs is north of ALL guidance right now and it is because of the same thing it was doing last week. It's way more amplified with the initial wave into the TN/OH valley. It's about 5mb deeper and north of all other guidance there.   That was the same mistake it made when it was north of all guidance last time and teased the crap out of us.  

From there everything ends up north.  It drives the primary further north which causes more ridging in front which transfers north which causes the ccb to be north.  The dominoes all fall wrong.  But I don't buy it.  It did the same thing last time when it was on an island and was wrong.  

My guess is a compromise again.  This time that could work.  A solution half way between the gfs and euro is still a pretty good one for most of the forum.  The EPS actually went south some.  The cmc misses us south with the second wave.  The other b team members look good. The gfs is the outlier and it's not that bad. Gefs is only slightly north of where we want. But again the gfs is alone in being that amplified in the Ohio valley. How did that just end?

So I'm actually fine with the gfs where it is.  I have no crystal ball.  Maybe this time it's right and we get screwed again but that's not the best bet based on recent model bias in this pattern. If everything plays out exactly how it has been this is where we want all the guidance. 

I'm not worried at all about the 6z gfs. Our only fear (IMHO only) is having a back to back weak waves with limited precip. That's a dagger and I don't care how "below normal" the temps are. The GFS was totally fine with QPF and intensity. Also, I don't think anyone can deny that the euro out performed the gfs with the last fail. The euro has actually been doing excellent inside of 5 days lately. Not without its hiccups of course but it has proven to be superior since it stopped being jumpy in late Jan/early Feb. Give me 2 more unwavering runs in a row like the last 2 and it's probably game on in some fashion meaning we are unlikely to get totally screwed. Only partially. Like my yard and stuff. Ur practically good no matter what imho

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted

Also, I think the next thread should be storm mode and we're several days from that. Let's just keep having fun. I personally like the loose banter. Let's stay focused during model runs and not say stupid stuff as the panels come out but in between lets have some fun dammit. This year has been an epic fail in the fun department. Let's make up for it and just let it roll...and have some restraint during key times...if that's possible...you know who you are

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

That Euro run for my area! I just wanted to thank everyone for the awesome analysis. Really busy at work this week so I have been out of the conversation mostly. But it is looking pretty good for a very historic late March storm. Get those snowblowers and generators warmed up this weekend.

Don't do it... don't get suckered in at Day 5.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I really just want some awesome rippage during a CCB even if doesn't really stick in UHI hell. If we end up with a few inches of slop while Winchester gets 18 inches I'm cool with that. 

You have to go back 5 years to find an event where something like that happened.  It's as rare as a blue diamond.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Also, I think the next thread should be storm mode and we're several days from that. Let's just keep having fun. I personally like the loose banter. Let's stay focused during model runs and not say stupid stuff as the panels come out but in between lets have some fun dammit. This year has been an epic fail in the fun department. Let's make up for it and just let it roll...and have some restraint during key times...if that's possible...you know who you are

I have a counter proposal.  Let’s not create a new thread, let’s not pin anything, let’s not storm mode anything.  “Expert” analysis won’t change a damn thing.  So let’s just keep rolling, complete with fun, and enjoy the last hurrah this sh*t winter can toss out.

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not worried at all about the 6z gfs. Our only fear (IMHO only) is having a back to back weak waves with limited precip. That's a dagger and I don't care how "below normal" the temps are. The GFS was totally fine with QPF and intensity. Also, I don't think anyone can deny that the euro out performed the gfs with the last fail. The euro has actually been doing excellent inside of 5 days lately. Not without its hiccups of course but it has proven to be superior since it stopped being jumpy in late Jan/early Feb. Give me 2 more unwavering runs in a row like the last 2 and it's probably game on in some fashion meaning we are unlikely to get totally screwed. Only partially. Like my yard and stuff. Ur practically good no matter what imho

Not worried yet... unless the GFS started a trend

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not worried at all about the 6z gfs. Our only fear (IMHO only) is having a back to back weak waves with limited precip. That's a dagger and I don't care how "below normal" the temps are. The GFS was totally fine with QPF and intensity. Also, I don't think anyone can deny that the euro out performed the gfs with the last fail. The euro has actually been doing excellent inside of 5 days lately. Not without its hiccups of course but it has proven to be superior since it stopped being jumpy in late Jan/early Feb. Give me 2 more unwavering runs in a row like the last 2 and it's probably game on in some fashion meaning we are unlikely to get totally screwed. Only partially. Like my yard and stuff. Ur practically good no matter what imho

There is no denying operational euro had some serious issues during the fast flow progressive NS dominated pattern from December through mid February.  If was over amplifying waves repeatedly. Since the wavelengths shortened and the flow slowed (and blocking further contributed to that) the euro has been back to solid. A compromise was still best with the last two coastals but that compromise was more euro heavy unlike earlier threats. It's also been steady once it locked in. It lost our snow day 7 last week and never teased us again. I know model trends can change from system to system but the recent performance has to favor the way things look now. 

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