I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

it's a fragile moment h20

btw how much for the footage

enough to make me do this

[WeSuck]

Ok, so in the last fail we had, everyone was saying how bad the ICON is and how it sucks. Now, we are saying it is good and believable becuase the euro shows something similar? Just trying to understand which side of the aisle the ICON is on.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, WeSuck said:

Ok, so in the last fail we had, everyone was saying how bad the ICON is and how it sucks. Now, we are saying it is good and believable becuase the euro shows something similar? Just trying to understand which side of the aisle the ICON is on.

He didn’t say either.  He was just showing what it showed.  Rest easy, We still suck. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

ICON looked to be setting up a Euro-like solution

this much fell already and still going

With temps like this lol

Powder bomb if those temps are legit. Much easier for shoveling too. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, WeSuck said:

Ok, so in the last fail we had, everyone was saying how bad the ICON is and how it sucks. Now, we are saying it is good and believable becuase the euro shows something similar? Just trying to understand which side of the aisle the ICON is on.

In my experience the ICON has been pretty jumpy...but of course it's good to have any model on your side.  

[Jandurin]

Stop ascribing inherent faith/belief when people use models that support a better model. The comment about the euro being trash then not trash is valid. I don't think anyone thinks the ICON is great - but it showing a similar evolution as a more prominent model is a credible thing to look for.

 

That said, ICON sucks stop posting it lol

[showmethesnow]

Couple comments on the EPS. Actually liked a couple of things I saw on the 00Z in regards to the primary and its transfer over to the coastal compared to the 12z. Saw a quicker progression of the primary eastward (roughly 6 hrs). Quicker progression means less time for the confluence in NE to break down. Primary looks a touch south when transfer occurs and we are seeing a quicker transfer to boot. Both of which would be favorable for a colder solution through the region. I also like the fact that the EPS seems to be moving towards a solution where the coastal holds strong off the coast waiting for the 500's to catch up as opposed to the 12Z which seemed to favor the primary escaping and having a new coastal develop. Over all I really liked the look.

[BristowWx]

I do like the fact that all models have some version of a storm impacting our area.  We could have the Euro solution with the GFS saying what storm and the ICON with a finger in its nose asking for a slice of pie and some ginger ale.  

[ohwxguy]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

ICON looked to be setting up a Euro-like solution

this much fell already and still going

Keep in mind the ICON depicts much of this snow accumulation to occur during daylight hours on Tuesday with marginal temps along the I-95 corridor.  Granted it does show some steady precip during that time period which could overcome the marginal surface temps & daylight hours, but it's overall depiction of the snowfall accumulation is likely overdone unless it's really coming down at a good clip.

[smokeybandit]

Wouldn't the ICON be asking for schnitzel and a stein of beer?

[Cobalt]

Just now, ohwxguy said:

Keep in mind the ICON depicts much of this snow accumulation to occur during daylight hours on Tuesday with marginal temps along the I-95 corridor.  Granted it does show some steady precip during that time period which could overcome the marginal surface temps & daylight hours, but it's overall depiction of the snowfall accumulation is likely overdone unless it's really coming down at a good clip.

Fairly positive it uses it's own snow ratios. Not 10:1 or anything. It's been really conservative with big storms. It does drop a 1.5" precip bomb and still going so that could be the root of the totals.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, ohwxguy said:

Keep in mind the ICON depicts much of this snow accumulation to occur during daylight hours on Tuesday with marginal temps along the I-95 corridor.  Granted it does show some steady precip during that time period which could overcome the marginal surface temps & daylight hours, but it's overall depiction of the snowfall accumulation is likely overdone unless it's really coming down at a good clip.

Yeah, I want what the Euro is showing which is CCB overnight Tuesday into early Wed.  That's how we accumulate. 

[MD Snow]

Anyone remember how the gfs was the furthest north with the primary until the last minute with the last storm? Everything else was south. I wouldn’t worry to much about the gfs being north even if it continues for today’s and tomorrow’s runs as long as the other models don’t follow.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Anyone remember how the gfs was the furthest north with the primary until the last minute with the last storm? Everything else was south. I wouldn’t worry to much about the gfs being north even if it continues for today’s and tomorrow’s runs as long as the other models don’t follow.

The GFS kept roping us in and the Euro kept saying no. 

[North Balti Zen]

44 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think (hope) we are mostly joking! Still this thread has been pretty dang fun, but if it’s time to take it seriously, I’m all in.

It can be pinned and still not be storm mode, that’s all I was saying. 

[clskinsfan]

That Euro run for my area! I just wanted to thank everyone for the awesome analysis. Really busy at work this week so I have been out of the conversation mostly. But it is looking pretty good for a very historic late March storm. Get those snowblowers and generators warmed up this weekend.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Anyone remember how the gfs was the furthest north with the primary until the last minute with the last storm? Everything else was south. I wouldn’t worry to much about the gfs being north even if it continues for today’s and tomorrow’s runs as long as the other models don’t follow.

This is where 6z Friday's run last week had the low

[Interstate]

We need Randy back in here to talk some sense into people!!!

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Wouldn't the ICON be asking for schnitzel and a stein of beer?

Exactly but it doesn’t..that’s how silly it is.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It can be pinned and still not be storm mode, that’s all I was saying. 

Yeah I don't get what the big deal is. Pinning it simply makes it easier to access. I guess we have reached a new level with the fear of jinxing a threat.

[Jandurin]

 

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I don't get what the big deal is. Pinning it simply makes it easier to access. I guess we have reached a new level with the fear of jinxing a threat.

I've been wearing the same socks since the first good Euro run.

[MD Snow]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This is where 6z Friday's run last week had the low

And it ended up forming about 200 miles south of that.

[ErinInTheSky]

Still a few really good hits on GEFS.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I don't get what the big deal is. Pinning it simply makes it easier to access. I guess we have reached a new level with the fear of jinxing a threat.

We must let @Jicall all the shots with this one. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

 

I've been wearing the same socks since the first good Euro run.

Still changing the underwear?

[nj2va]

44 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Snowing right now and sticking fyi

You must be dreaming. Snow doesn’t stick in March. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Still a few really good hits on GEFS.

 

Either way, GEFS is doing GFS group think type stuff. GFS goes north, GEFS members will follow. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

 

I've been wearing the same socks since the first good Euro run.

I've been disrobed since the euro came out. 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Still changing the underwear?

Not here. TMI?

[87storms]

This is a really quick glance but I think I like the move the gfs made at 500.  You can now see the piece that digs in to help kick off the low.  It looks more consolidated now, just needs to be a tick south which could happen with that blocking in place.