I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[osfan24]

This is getting close/real enough now that I'm going to actually get angry if the rug gets pulled out from under us. Until now, it was just whatever with all the caveats that this season has sucked and we always miss out and it's very late in the season anyway at this point.

[showmethesnow]

Let me just say that the 06Z run is a very viable solution and can not be dismissed whatsoever. It brings forward two of my biggest fears. Weaker confluence (induced by the 50/50) as the primary moves eastward out of the central US and a quicker departure of the confluence as we see the transfer to our coastal. The weaker confluence initially will tend to let our primary gained latitude on its trek eastward and its quicker departure argues for a farther northward solution on any coastal development. And we saw the results as the snow has shifted northward.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah it’s ugly, basically nada for us.  

This is about the lead time where we start to see unfavorable runs sprinkled in. I dont like how some guidance is suddenly showing a 'rogue' piece of NS energy digging more in the upper plains trying to amplify the trof earlier before our bowling ball vort can get far enough out in front. Isnt a huge player right now but showing up and notably having some minor influences downstream with a stronger primary. Im also not loving how some guidance is retrograding part of the 50/50 lobe and diving it into the trof increasing amplification and sharpening the mean trof keeping the lp irt 'wave 2' (ull?) tucked closer to the coast. Probably not time to panic yet but the I95 areas *might* have seen their best model output runs already for this event. Lots of moving pieces and uncertainty tho so claiming my thoughts will be the final outcome would be irresponsible. Just noting some pieces that I saw that stood out starting with 18z yesterday.

[Interstate]

I think it is funny how people think that pinning or not pinning with effect if we get a storm or not.  Too funny.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Interstate said:

I think it is funny how people think that pinning or not pinning with effect if we get a storm or not.  Too funny.

Nope it’s not the primary low going into WV that’s the real threat..it’s this thread and how it evolves.  I’ll be watching that in the coming days.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Let me just say that the 06Z run is a very viable solution and can not be dismissed whatsoever. It brings forward two of my biggest fears. Weaker confluence (induced by the 50/50) as the primary moves eastward out of the central US and a quicker departure of the confluence as we see the transfer to our coastal. The weaker confluence initially will tend to let our primary gained latitude on its trek eastward and its quicker departure argues for a farther northward solution on any coastal development. And we saw the results as the snow has shifted northward.

 

Is the euro a viable solution?

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I think it is funny how people think that pinning or not pinning with effect if we get a storm or not.  Too funny.

I think (hope) we are mostly joking! Still this thread has been pretty dang fun, but if it’s time to take it seriously, I’m all in.

[MillvilleWx]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice write up. 

Think the one thing I will be keying on is the initial setup over top as the primary begins moving eastward out of the central US roughly day 3. Need the confluence induced by the 50/50 feature in the NE to hold strong. If we see that weaken/shift northward in subsequent runs I think the writing will be on the wall as the primary will gain to much latitude on it's move eastward. Don't think much that comes afterward will matter for our region at that point. The 06Z was a good example in my mind as that feature (confluence) came in slightly northward day 3 onward which allowed the low and sub-sequentially the 500 mb to slightly strengthen over the 00Z. And we saw the results as the primary ended up into West Va before we saw the transfer complete. At that point everything is wrecked almost beyond redemption for the cities. Doesn't help that we see the transfer completed off of OC as well instead of further south. And that farther north transfer solution is also a product of the quicker withdrawal of the 50/50 induced confluence. All in all, if we see that confluence hold strong I very much like our chances. The only problem is I have some doubts on whether that will be the case.

That confluence is certainly a big piece of the puzzle and is just as crucial of a role. In fact, just look at the ICON and compare to the GFS. ICON is better to the north, so the despite H5 closing off in Southern Indiana, the surface low has a hard time gaining latitude and is stuck in KY. That's actually a very sweet look for here and is another viable solution. The Euro is best of both worlds with a cold enough thermal profile to start, surface low transfer further south, stall north of the VA Capes near Chincoteague and OCMD, a nice H5 passage overhead with H7 passage right over the area while strengthening. There would be some excellent lift generated over the area with better ratios as a result as lift within the DGZ would likely be pretty impressive given that upper level progression. We really need to see the GFS come back from the weaker confluence and the upper low closing off in Indiana/Ohio. That's a death nail to chances around here. 

[MillvilleWx]

15 minutes ago, H2O said:

If you all think that a thread getting pinned makes or breaks it then I have some footage of aliens from area 51 to sell you.

Do you have them in VHS? I like to watch them in my basement while playing A track tapes of Hootie and the Blowfish to pass the time.

[mattb65]

12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This is getting close/real enough now that I'm going to actually get angry if the rug gets pulled out from under us. Until now, it was just whatever with all the caveats that this season has sucked and we always miss out and it's very late in the season anyway at this point.

You are setting yourself up for failure, we are in late march and lots of ens members + climo favor N and W of the cities, in fact I would favor a solution that is more rain than snow in the I95 corridor. 

I really hope this one works out for all of us but given the time of year, my expectation is that this will bump a bit further north enough to hurt us in the lowlands.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is the euro a viable solution?

Yup. There's multiple ways to score around here, but god only knows there's more ways to fail.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I think it is funny how people think that pinning or not pinning with effect if we get a storm or not.  Too funny.

In all honesty, tonight would be a good night for a radio show. Talk of March 1958 comparisons in and of itself should warrant a show. Also, it is Friday night....prime time ratings would be high :-D

Lastly, havent had a show all season.....maybe it can bring some good mojo to this threat. It cant hurt, every other threat fizzled away.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is the euro a viable solution?

In the good old days the Euro would be king and all other guidance would be dismissed mostly.  Those were good times in our lives.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is the euro a viable solution?

All season many were calling the Euro a JV model since its 'upgrade' but for whatever reason it has miraculously reclaimed 'King' status over the past 36-48 hours. Noted.

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Do you have them in VHS? I like to watch them in my basement while playing A track tapes of Hootie and the Blowfish to pass the time.

8mm.  this is zapruder type quality.  And the music of choice is milli vanilli

[Ralph Wiggum]

You are setting yourself up for failure, we are in late march and lots of ens members + climo favor N and W of the cities, in fact I would favor a solution that is more rain than snow in the I95 corridor. 
I really hope this one works out for all of us but given the time of year, my expectation is that this will bump a bit further north enough to hurt us in the lowlands.

There is a cluster of suppressed members as well fwiw.

[aldie 22]

Fun thread when not taken seriously now....meh

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. There's multiple ways to score around here, but god only knows there's more ways to fail.

 

[BristowWx]

Did anyone get a chance to look at GEFS for 6z?  Driving to work.  Late in the game for them I guess

[Jandurin]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

This dumb card game has a card for just about anything it seems

They've been making it for like 30 years

[aldie 22]

Snowing right now and sticking fyi

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Do you have them in VHS? I like to watch them in my basement while playing A track tapes of Hootie and the Blowfish to pass the time.

Seems you are interested in aliens? I have something even better then tapes. If you would like I can send you some stool samples (amazingly enough their stool samples are very similar to black lab stool, go figure). Reasonably priced of course. And for any other members of this board that may be interested I have plenty to go around.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Did anyone get a chance to look at GEFS for 6z?  Driving to work.  Late in the game for them I guess

This is a pretty classic look...especially for a mean.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Snowing right now and sticking fyi

Cool.  I see clouds rolling in from north.  Hope it makes it here.  

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In all honesty, tonight would be a good night for a radio show. Talk of March 1958 comparisons in and of itself should warrant a show. Also, it is Friday night....prime time ratings would be high :-D

Lastly, havent had a show all season.....maybe it can bring some good mojo to this threat. It cant hurt, every other threat fizzled away.

I can't remember the last one we had. In fact the last one I remember had DT there. So I guess it has been awhile.

[BristowWx]

Just now, LP08 said:

This is a pretty classic look...especially for a mean.

Man that looks good like yesterday

[Jandurin]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

As of now, the interior Mid-Atlantic is the prime spot for any significant snowfall as the coastal plain and areas under 600-700' will need more help to get a better snowfall just due to climo. 

Elevation is 436.4 Feet.

According to google

I need to build stilts for my house.

200' stilts

[Jandurin]

32 minutes ago, H2O said:

If you all think that a thread getting pinned makes or breaks it then I have some footage of aliens from area 51 to sell you.

it's a fragile moment h20

btw how much for the footage

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Jandurin said:

Elevation is 436.4 Feet.

According to google

I need to build stilts for my house.

200' stilts

I say that elevation because that's typical for areas NW of the fall line like NW MoCo, Carroll, Frederick, etc. You're down by KGAI, so you're on the borderline being smack in the middle of MoCo. Good luck with the stilts. There's a few people in here that do carpentry. @losetoa6 can help you out 

 

[Cobalt]

ICON looked to be setting up a Euro-like solution

this much fell already and still going

With temps like this lol