I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Climate175]

Two back to back Euro runs now, a bit more intrigued, but not sucked in yet. Let's keep getting more consistency. EPS also increased too.

[aldie 22]

Guys guys it's late March...all of that won't stick

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Good morning to all of those who didn’t stay up like the rest of us  finally some good news from the overnight runs!

Woke up early just so I could check out the overnight status. All I can muster up as the coffee starts brewing is...

Eta: Question for anyone. Isn’t pretty well known that the Euro (al least in the past) handles these type of setups better than the GFS? I have a case of CRS. Can’t remember s***!

 

[mappy]

Well things are coming together nicely it seems. Sorry I’m not joining in on the tracking fun, been in training since Wednesday and another day of it today. Will be able to follow more this weekend


.

[attml]

Euro - 3/20/18 at 10AM

 

Euro - 3/20/18 - 7PM

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Well things are coming together nicely it seems. Sorry I’m not joining in on the tracking fun, been in training since Wednesday and another day of it today. Will be able to follow more this weekend


.

Hope the training is going well. Probably for the best that you won't be able to really follow this until the weekend. Think this might have some legs but I still have some reservations when it comes to the blocking which is the lynch pin that all this revolves around. If I still see what we need with that blocking on tomorrows 12Z then I might start getting a touch excited. 

[attml]

Euro -3/20/18 - 10PM

Euro -3/21/18 - 4AM

Euro - 4/21/18 - 1PM

 

[BristowWx]

6z looks further north again at 120 The hangover run always.

[aldie 22]

I'm not going to lie but I think the euro was a good run.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z looks further north again at 120 The hangover run always.

Yeah it’s ugly, basically nada for us.  

[Herb@MAWS]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
221 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAR 19 2018 - 12Z FRI MAR 23 2018  
 
...LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK...  
   
..SPRAWLING SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK  
 
   
..OVERVIEW  
 
EAST...  
 
WINTER WILL NOT GO OUT QUIETLY IN THE EAST AS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION  
BRINGS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO  
REDEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT  
TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE  
MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL  
REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS)  
INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.

[H2O]

6z is this 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it’s ugly, basically nada for us.  

The storm is there so that’s good.  But it does highlight how we can miss this.  Primary went to WV and everything developed north.  Certainly on the table as GFS op has moved north each run since 18z.  

[H2O]

This dumb card game has a card for just about anything it seems

[Interstate]

The 6z GFS is more like it. That is the model run we have gotten accustomed to this winter. 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The 6z GFS is more like it. That is the model run we have gotten accustomed to this winter. 

It wants to make sure we don’t get too invested.  I haven’t said one word to anyone.  I always do that and get burned.  Not gonna sound the alarms until Sunday night.

[North Balti Zen]

I wish this thread were pinned, I keep opening the other one by mistake.

if the euro’s version is right, we would in NAM range today in terms of comparing the features because euro gets it going here by Monday evening. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I wish this thread were pinned, I keep opening the other one by mistake.

if the euro’s version is right, we would in NAM range today in terms of comparing the features because euro gets it going here by Monday evening. 

I can pin it.  i can also storm mode it.  But you have to promise me that whence upon doing said act I will not be held liable nor accountable if the 12z runs got right into this.

[Scraff]

Just now, H2O said:

I can pin it.  i can also storm mode it.  But you have to promise me that whence upon doing said act I will not be held liable nor accountable if the 12z runs got right into this.

Nooooooooooooooo! Well at least wait until after 12z. 

[MillvilleWx]

The biggest takeaway from the GFS and the Euro is the difference in the strength of the closed low over the Plains and how strong it holds as it ejects eastward. GFS is noticeably stronger with the H5 vort, thus pumps the heights out in front just enough to become an issue the further downstream it moves. Also, the handling of the upper level piece diving into Canada is different from the Euro where the Euro keeps the two pieces separated and the upper level energy can slide eastward and move overhead, instead of closing off over Kentucky/Indiana with the primary into NW WV, ala the GFS. This is critical to the thermal profile with the WAA thump. If the Euro presentation is correct, the mid-levels will be borderline, but definitely workable given the slug of moisture moving overhead providing evap cooling with a fairly isothermal profile likely at the start of any precip. The evolution at H5 from Hour 72-96 is critical for what would transpire here. We need to keep the energy consolidated (Which I think will happen), but not as strong as the GFS is depicting. Pending on what happens there may ultimately setup round 2 and where the CCB develops. A colder beginning will force the baroclinic zone south for us to engage cyclogenesis off OBX and stall in better position off the east coast, thus keeping the CCB parked over top of the region instead of further north. This is what the Euro has been implying last few runs.

It's a very tight setup and one that can easily put us on the wrong side, once again. There's still time for models to shift one way or another, or even come to a bit of a compromise. As of now, the interior Mid-Atlantic is the prime spot for any significant snowfall as the coastal plain and areas under 600-700' will need more help to get a better snowfall just due to climo. Areas west of Fall line with elevation or on a line from Rt 15, west have the best shot at something more significant. I really like the WV/Western MD area with areas around the MD line and Parrs Ridge to cash in on something with this system, even potentially significant. Ingredients are there, but we've struggled to bake a cupcake let alone a regular cake this season. Just have to watch the upper level progression closely. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Nooooooooooooooo! Well at least wait until after 12z. 

Concur.  Please wait.  This is far from certain as 6z pointed out.  

[BlizzardNole]

LWX:  "...it is too early to pinpoint exact details. As of now it is increasingly likely that our area will be impacted by coastal low pressure Monday night
into the middle portion of next week.  There is even a possibility that the coastal low could hang around nearby for a few days due to the blocking pattern
previously mentioned. Therefore...a prolonged period rain or snow cannot be ruled out. 

Oh if only this was February.

[North Balti Zen]

H20 - not advocating for storm mode, but maybe pinned? Dunno. Weenie of me but don’t want to jinx the euro’s roll...

can we unpin the other one?

[MD Snow]

6z icon looked similar to the euro. A very good run.

[ErinInTheSky]

My vote goes to waiting until 12z. If we get another Euro or if the gfs jumps on board I’m all in to this getting pinned and taking it seriously. Don’t jinx us by pinning before and then getting crap 12z runs.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Hope the training is going well. Probably for the best that you won't be able to really follow this until the weekend. Think this might have some legs but I still have some reservations when it comes to the blocking which is the lynch pin that all this revolves around. If I still see what we need with that blocking on tomorrows 12Z then I might start getting a touch excited. 

thanks, friend! been some long days, didn't get home until 9 last night after a dinner with all the higher ups and trainees. Sitting next to my company President/CEO was nice.  

[showmethesnow]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The biggest takeaway from the GFS and the Euro is the difference in the strength of the closed low over the Plains and how strong it holds as it ejects eastward. GFS is noticeably stronger with the H5 vort, thus pumps the heights out in front just enough to become an issue the further downstream it moves. Also, the handling of the upper level piece diving into Canada is different from the Euro where the Euro keeps the two pieces separated and the upper level energy can slide eastward and move overhead, instead of closing off over Kentucky/Indiana with the primary into NW WV, ala the GFS. This is critical to the thermal profile with the WAA thump. If the Euro presentation is correct, the mid-levels will be borderline, but definitely workable given the slug of moisture moving overhead providing evap cooling with a fairly isothermal profile likely at the start of any precip. The evolution at H5 from Hour 72-96 is critical for what would transpire here. We need to keep the energy consolidated (Which I think will happen), but not as strong as the GFS is depicting. Pending on what happens there may ultimately setup round 2 and where the CCB develops. A colder beginning will force the baroclinic zone south for us to engage cyclogenesis off OBX and stall in better position off the east coast, thus keeping the CCB parked over top of the region instead of further north. This is what the Euro has been implying last few runs.

It's a very tight setup and one that can easily put us on the wrong side, once again. There's still time for models to shift one way or another, or even come to a bit of a compromise. As of now, the interior Mid-Atlantic is the prime spot for any significant snowfall as the coastal plain and areas under 600-700' will need more help to get a better snowfall just due to climo. Areas west of Fall line with elevation or on a line from Rt 15, west have the best shot at something more significant. I really like the WV/Western MD area with areas around the MD line and Parrs Ridge to cash in on something with this system, even potentially significant. Ingredients are there, but we've struggled to bake a cupcake let alone a regular cake this season. Just have to watch the upper level progression closely. 

Nice write up. 

Think the one thing I will be keying on is the initial setup over top as the primary begins moving eastward out of the central US roughly day 3. Need the confluence induced by the 50/50 feature in the NE to hold strong. If we see that weaken/shift northward in subsequent runs I think the writing will be on the wall as the primary will gain to much latitude on it's move eastward. Don't think much that comes afterward will matter for our region at that point. The 06Z was a good example in my mind as that feature (confluence) came in slightly northward day 3 onward which allowed the low and sub-sequentially the 500 mb to slightly strengthen over the 00Z. And we saw the results as the primary ended up into West Va before we saw the transfer complete. At that point everything is wrecked almost beyond redemption for the cities. Doesn't help that we see the transfer completed off of OC as well instead of further south. And that farther north transfer solution is also a product of the quicker withdrawal of the 50/50 induced confluence. All in all, if we see that confluence hold strong I very much like our chances. The only problem is I have some doubts on whether that will be the case.

[PCT_ATC]

34 minutes ago, H2O said:

I can pin it.  i can also storm mode it.  But you have to promise me that whence upon doing said act I will not be held liable nor accountable if the 12z runs got right into this.

Hey, guys lets do something different for a change. Every storm that has been pinned this year had fallen apart for us save the sprinkling we got in December.  My vote  DO NOT PIN THIS STORM EVER!!!!.  Realistically, if this storm does evolve the way the Euro suggests, will stay at the top of the forum posts anyway (just below the pinned lists) let's not jinx this storm!

[smokeybandit]

Yeah, try some reverse psychology and don't pin it

[H2O]

If you all think that a thread getting pinned makes or breaks it then I have some footage of aliens from area 51 to sell you.