I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[yoda]

123 998mb SLP over OBX

126 996mb SLP just ENE of OBX

[ErinInTheSky]

Wow this is a wet storm.

[yoda]

129 994mb SLP about 75 to 100 miles east of NC/VA border

[nj2va]

Need 500 to close off for the second wave.

[yoda]

First SLP isn't really going anywhere... very fast that is

[ErinInTheSky]

Long Island gets smashed.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

First SLP isn't really going anywhere...

But looks NE of its 18z position 

[nj2va]

500 closes off too north for us.

[Interstate]

The storm is there and close... that is all that should matter for now.

[ErinInTheSky]

Storm exits at 150. Not as great of a run but not terrible. The front end packs more pump but is more rainy. I like our chances. Not staying up for euro.

[Mordecai]

Typical DC snowhole

[mdhokie]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

500 closes off too north for us.

Yup. flow is flatter and doesn't dig as deep. 

[Bob Chill]

H5 closing off to the east is not ideal but we're under the influence of a broad and unstable upper level trough for a really long time. Plenty of energy to work with even in that scenario. Another good run that makes it happen. This one is becoming legit because various progressions drop acceptable snowfall through the region with a different upper level evolution. We're in the game. I like it. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Mordecai said:

Typical DC snowhole

Uhi is baked into the gefs. Nothing to do with precip and everything to do with boundary temps. Don't get hung up on a detail like that with 4-5 day leads. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

H5 closing off to the east is not ideal but we're under the influence of a broad and unstable upper level trough for a really long time. Plenty of energy to work with even in that scenario. Another good run that makes it happen. This one is becoming legit because various progression drop acceptable snowfall through the region with a different upper level evolution. We're in the game. I like it. 

Agree.  We shouldn’t expect the same solution each time 5 days out.  18z was better but this isn’t too shabby either. 

[yoda]

CMC is decent... 2 to 5 for N VA and DC... better for N MD and just over the border in to S PA

[Bob Chill]

The drought just keeps getting punched in the face 

[yoda]

And fwiw, ICON was nice as well

[BristowWx]

That insane Euro run might be skewing our mental expectation.  Tough to imagine that scenario actually verifying. 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That insane Euro run might be skewing our mental expectation.  Tough to imagine that scenario actually verifying. 

Interestingly I thought the euro was a little more north with the closed low. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That insane Euro run might be skewing our mental expectation.  Tough to imagine that scenario actually verifying. 

If someone can't accept the euro as the top end run with the lowest probability of verifying then they need to delete all wx sites from their bookmarks cuz they ain't playing the game right. 0z has been kind. We're in rug pull range and I'm walking arround on plush carpets in bare feet. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If someone can't accept the euro as the top end run with the lowest probability of verifying then they need to delete all wx sites from their bookmarks cuz they ain't playing the game right. 0z has been kind. We're in rug pull range and I'm walking arround on plush carpets in bare feet. 

It won’t 0z has gone north again. And unfortunately will continue. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

It won’t 0z has gone north again. And unfortunately will continue. 

?

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

CMC is decent... 2 to 5 for N VA and DC... better for N MD and just over the border in to S PA

CMC almost looks better upstairs imo.  Little further south.

[psuhoffman]

Cmc misses with the second wave though south. Lol. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

It won’t 0z has gone north again. And unfortunately will continue. 

Take it somewhere else.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

It won’t 0z has gone north again. And unfortunately will continue. 

What went north?  The op gfs?  Cmc went south. Icon was the same. The rest of 0z suits isn't in yet. Stop jumping to conclusions. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

It won’t 0z has gone north again. And unfortunately will continue. 

Wow you have access to the 0z euro and it doesn't even run for an hour. Amazing. 

[Stradivarious]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

The 84 bomb also coincided with the night the Colts snuck out of town. I remembered the event vividly. Heavy rain turned to snow from west to east in the early morning hours as the moving vans headed to Indianapolis. Living in Owings Mills at the time where there was 2-3 inches of wet snow at the end with decent winds. I would guess the area I live in now was in the 4-6 inch range.

They moved out when the courts were closed in Indianapolis because of the snow and The Colts  knew that Baltimore couldn’t get an injunction...

[Bob Chill]

Oh man, dont look at the 0z gefs if you dont like late March snow. Hits galore. Best mid range run of the year. It's the consistency that is striking and not some 50" outlier jacking up the mean