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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

So there were a few major shifts over the last few days worth noting:

1. Models began to evacuate the 50-50 low quickly, producing a warmer storm. At this time, they were still adjusting the Pacific wave guide (which has downstream effects on key players).

2. Then, the wave guide of the Pacific began to tilt more to the right. The entire system has been influenced by the N. Atlantic blocking and SSW for the last couple of weeks. The quasi-stationary waves have been slowly retrograding. The set of Pacific waves this week will constructively interfere with that system and produce a big EPO ridge and NE PAC trough. This trend has slowed the flow down over the CONUS, enhanced the transient western ridge and allowed Canada to reshuffle a bit.

3. Now we are seeing the split flow / confluence look return as low anomalies dropping into the 50-50 trough reinforce the confluence.

Hard to say what's next but the back and forth between the Atlantic and Pacific may have finally been sorted out on a large-scale. Now it's a matter of the individual waves and their interactions.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, HM said:

Yeah, this is probably correct. What we know now is that a simple 2003-like situation is not happening. While the Atlantic blocking setup is just like it, and there are shades of it with the wave moving into confluence, 2003 was much simpler. So far, the models aren't buying a 1984-like extension west with the 50-50; but, the situation in Canada can continue to evolve. The flow has slowed down considerably, so it's not impossible to trend in that area.

Yea I could see it just not sure I'm rooting for that. But it would be fitting if it phased and ended up too tight to the coast with a big apps snow so we could add a miss west to our misses north south and east this month.  Thanks for popping in love it when you're around!  

 

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

*gasp* I had heard rumors that you once traversed these boards, but I didn't believe them! Hello good sir! (I'm the one that made the Tambora-Frankenstein comment yesterday, lol) Awesome analysis you've offered (even if it hasn't worked out yet for us here, lol)

Yes, it is true I used to post here, EasternUSWX and Wright-Weather frequently. I don't really post in forums much these days (there are multiple forums/chats with everyone scattered around). Twitter is just easier.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I was thinking of the ‘84 March snowstorm a few hours ago that HM mentioned. . I was living in Gloucester Co, NJ as a sophomore in high school. I don’t remember the exact snow totals but it was definitely double digits. I remember how warm it was the next day as we were digging out. I think the next day was a Saturday. Need to google it.

You're thinking of a clipper that bombed earlier in march 84. The 84 bomb ended up too tucked in and mostly rain for 95. It was an interior storm. 

IMG_4711.PNG.c81fb50a7de6b1181a08fac11b063aea.PNG

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HM

HM

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24 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Yes...and with this as you described, it’s an intiuiging threat as goes the 50/50. Model noise until Monday but angles can be found until then...which are legitimate. 

That barrier of confluence that multiple waves run into is a beautiful thing. So far, models don't show some northern stream wave interfering with that yet either. The last few times we had a 50-50 low, that ended up happening and ruining a Mid Atlantic threat.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HM said:

That barrier of confluence that multiple waves run into is a beautiful thing. So far, models don't show some northern stream wave interfering with that yet either. The last few times we had a 50-50 low, that ended up happening and ruining a Mid Atlantic threat.

Yeah that was THE only reason the last threat didn't pan out down here, it seems...ack!! Perhaps keeping the northern stream "clean" is something we should look for in future runs (wonder when it'll be safe to say we won't have to worry about THAT particular problem?)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, HM said:

That barrier of confluence that multiple waves run into is a beautiful thing. So far, models don't show some northern stream wave interfering with that yet either. The last few times we had a 50-50 low, that ended up happening and ruining a Mid Atlantic threat.

It could yet but I'm hopeful because by this stage (day 5/6) the last few times the problems (such as a NS wave diving in on top of us) were already showing themselves. So perhaps this time the NS wants to stay out of the way for the first time all year. Wishful thinking maybe. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It could yet but I'm hopeful because by this stage (day 5/6) the last few times the problems (such as a NS wave diving in on top of us) were already showing themselves. So perhaps this time the NS wants to stay out of the way for the first time all year. Wishful thinking maybe. 

Gotta hope we can give that an all clear within the next day or two...the last thing we wanna see on any model is a splatter of blue coming out of the GL...(that image from last week was scarring, lol)

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

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Posted
22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I could see it just not sure I'm rooting for that. But it would be fitting if it phased and ended up too tight to the coast with a big apps snow so we could add a miss west to our misses north south and east this month.  Thanks for popping in love it when you're around!  

 

In fairness a tucked storm isn't bad for everyone in the subforum. And it could end up great for everyone with enough cold air. Tough to do in March. But not impossible. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, HM said:

That barrier of confluence that multiple waves run into is a beautiful thing. So far, models don't show some northern stream wave interfering with that yet either. The last few times we had a 50-50 low, that ended up happening and ruining a Mid Atlantic threat.

First of all, damn am I glad to see you post. I've missed our convos. We've had some good ones over the years. Seondly, I could not agree more about what you said in regards to multiple wave running into the confluence. In my hood, the lead wave is going to be iffy. Especially the waa piece. Backside could do something but with confluence in place, the upside on the backside of the first shortwave is pretty limited. Just not going to get that explosive CCB cranking and crawling without help from wave 2.

My attention ( and probably everyone else's) is on the trailer.  There is a fairly wide set of variables on how that could interact and evolve. I look at wave 1 as a mid level primer. It needs to draw the cold down in the mid levels as it departs. Wave 2 seems to want to "compress" into the blocked flow and either prolong wave 1 or become a closed ULL in just the right area for a significant precip event by itself. If the pump is primed then many of us can win here. Even east. Ample cold, good baroclinicity, and nearly stationary SLP tucked close but not much to worry about with drawing in too much maritime air becuase wave 1 already solved much of that problem. 

The whole thing has powder keg potential but no way the ops are getting the spacing/timing of the shortwaves right in the med range. I'm just rooting various solutions inbound to include a couple important things. Getting the mids primed and then getting the trailer to close off south of us. Don't care if it's 2 completely discrete events or one drawn out single event without a lull. We have a chance for either. That's all we can ask for...a legit late season chance that doesn't require 500 things to break right. 

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

The 84 bomb also coincided with the night the Colts snuck out of town. I remembered the event vividly. Heavy rain turned to snow from west to east in the early morning hours as the moving vans headed to Indianapolis. Living in Owings Mills at the time where there was 2-3 inches of wet snow at the end with decent winds. I would guess the area I live in now was in the 4-6 inch range.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In fairness a tucked storm isn't bad for everyone in the subforum. And it could end up great for everyone with enough cold air. Tough to do in March. But not impossible. 

I'm not talking tucked. If the 50/50 retrogrades then dives a lobe down and phases you could get this pulled inland even.  Yea it would bomb but if it ends up a 975 low over Salisbury that's no good unless your west of the blue ridge. I would rather take my chances on a non northern stream solution. The euro and gfs just showed us how that can work just fine in two different ways. A northern stream phase ups the ante but also introduces another fail option. 

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