I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Jandurin]

topping 3"? Should've said 3"+ then. 

3-5 implies 3 as low end

 

[Heisy]

12z JMA 500mb @ 144 hours. That is an historic look imo

Since it is Ji's thread I have to post.

[Climate175]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Im surprised Ji didnt post the 12z JMA it has beefed up WAA snows thru 120 hours. Then at 144 hours it is showing an almost closed off ULL at 500mb that is ready to explode. 

It has already been posted.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

12z JMA 500mb @ 144 hours. That is an historic look imo

Since it is Ji's thread I have to post.

 

I like the look but I hate those maps...its like a Crayola factory exploded everywhere...opposite of the terrible GGEM B&W maps.  

[RDM]

18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Is Fairfax County brining the roads yet?

I'm with you on that one!  Driving to/from work the last several days on the Toll Road and 28 with all the brine lines makes you  sick.  Where does all that brine go?  In the Chesapeake of course.  If any of us disturb more than 18" of soil and don't put up a silt fence the County is all over you.  Yet VDOT, DDOT, MDOT etc can drop an unconscionable amount of brine for a non-event and nobody says a word.  And they wonder why the Bay has had such issues the past several decades... 

[snowmagnet]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Is Fairfax County brining the roads yet?

I swear they brined them again yesterday.  It was probably just leftover from the last storm that saw 18 flakes here. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So when this turns out to be a late March SECS without the March 1958 totals, will people still complain even given the pathetic lack of a winter this year? My guess is yes. HM really set the bar high.....this is all Im seeing now all over FB and Twitter. 1958 was something special. This has some similarities tho I seriously doubt anything close to as widespread of a redux will even come close to verifying. I would love to see it but I am keeping expectations tempered. I would be thrilled with a 3-6" event for late March.

3-6 is good anytime.  6 is twice DCA climo I think. I’d take 12hrs of snow with 6inches over  6 hrs with 12inches any day.  I like to see it fall.

[nj2va]

Just now, RDM said:

I'm with you on that one!  Driving to/from work the last several days on the Toll Road and 28 with all the brine lines makes you  sick.  Where does all that brine go?  In the Chesapeake of course.  If any of us disturb more than 18" of soil and don't put up a silt fence the County is all over you.  Yet VDOT, DDOT, MDOT etc can drop an unconscionable amount of brine for a non-event and nobody says a word.  And they wonder why the Bay has had such issues the past several decades... 

Amen!  Couldn’t have said it better

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Having it all just not come together perfectly IMO.  The lead wave is too warm...the second wave doesn't develop exactly where we need or amplify enough...moderate precip instead of heavy... something like that.  I could see some situation where we end up with 1" qpf over a long period from 2 waves and no one gets any significant accumulation because it never came together.  That is the greatest risk. 

So then...this could possibly look good up to 48 hours...then trend warm? Lol Will we be able to say anything is "locked in" at that point? (If we have agreement among models, that is...) Sounds like it's very precarious!

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So then...this could possibly look good up to 48 hours...then trend warm? Lol Will we be able to say anything is "locked in" at that point? (If we have agreement among models, that is...) Sounds like it's very precarious!

Nothing is locked in at this range 

[Jandurin]

Nothing is locked in at this range 

I think he's asking if in 48 hours we can stop worrying but I'm not sure

[mattie g]

11 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I swear they brined them again yesterday.  It was probably just leftover from the last storm that saw 18 flakes here. 

VRE station had a thick layer of salt all over the steps and platform the other day. Just a drop in the bucket of chemical treatments for no good reason, but it’s still so incredibly frustrating.

[HM]

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

[Climate175]

22 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

topping 3"? Should've said 3"+ then. 

That December storm was eh ok.

[Cobalt]

Just now, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

Welcome back 

[B-Paq]

4 minutes ago, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

 

[RDM]

13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I swear they brined them again yesterday.  It was probably just leftover from the last storm that saw 18 flakes here. 

I work just North of you on rt 28 near Dulles.  We had a grand total of 22 flakes yesterday.  I measured them with a yard stick after they individually triggered the motion activated security cameras. 

But seriously - it did seem like they put down more brine on 28 yesterday.  It was really cool (not!) to see where the lines of brine crossed each other at several locations and doubled-up on themselves for several stretches...   I'm beginning to think there's a conspiracy at play driven by the automotive paint industry given the damage that liquid rust sheite does to your vehicle's paint and undercarriage...

 

[Jandurin]

Oh and hi everyone.

Hi

I think we understood your meaning with the tweet. Potential is potential. It's not always there
Nice to get further thought process for sure

[nj2va]

Things just got real...HM is posting in our subforum.  

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

And the icky has been passed

[T. August]

37 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Some people topped 3" in the December event, or last March's event. 

Yeah actually north of Bmore was 4-6” widespread totals.

[yoda]

More HM please.  All new posters in this thread who may not know HM... when HM speaks, listen closely.  He is like a weather God 

[mappy]

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.
The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.
Oh and hi everyone.

You are like a celebrity


.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

Thanks for the thoughts. Not sure we want the 1984 bomb option. If the 50:50 retrogrades and dives in that could pull the whole thing in too much this late in the season. Could push the snowfall pretty far inland. 

[Round Hill WX]

17 minutes ago, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

Yes...and with this as you described, it’s an intiuiging threat as goes the 50/50. Model noise until Monday but angles can be found until then...which are legitimate. 

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

More HM please.  All new posters in this thread who may not know HM... when HM speaks, listen closely.  He is like a weather God 

I was thinking of the ‘84 March snowstorm a few hours ago that HM mentioned. . I was living in Gloucester Co, NJ as a sophomore in high school. I don’t remember the exact snow totals but it was definitely double digits. I remember how warm it was the next day as we were digging out. I think the next day was a Saturday. Need to google it.

[HM]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the thoughts. Not sure we want the 1984 bomb option. If the 50:50 retrogrades and dives in that could pull the whole thing in too much this late in the season. Could push the snowfall pretty far inland. 

Yeah, this is probably correct. What we know now is that a simple 2003-like situation is not happening. While the Atlantic blocking setup is just like it, and there are shades of it with the wave moving into confluence, 2003 was much simpler. So far, the models aren't buying a 1984-like extension west with the 50-50; but, the situation in Canada can continue to evolve. The flow has slowed down considerably, so it's not impossible to trend in that area.

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, HM said:

The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation.

The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984.

Oh and hi everyone.

*gasp* I had heard rumors that you once traversed these boards, but I didn't believe them! Hello good sir! (I'm the one that made the Tambora-Frankenstein comment yesterday, lol) Awesome analysis you've offered (even if it hasn't worked out yet for us here, lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

Folks are referencing the 1984 storm...what happened in this area with that one?

[southmdwatcher]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Folks are referencing the 1984 storm...what happened in this area with that one?

Wasn't that the storm in late March 1984 that had  "half" a foot of heavy wet snow just north and west of Dulles, meanwhile the great Carolina Tornado outbreak was going on at the same time?