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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.


Ji

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  On 3/16/2018 at 12:46 AM, supernovasky said:

GEFS is less fantastic than I was hoping for, but at least almost every member shows snow.

 

X4BVDBD.jpg

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Less fantastic? Look at the mean! We're still near 5 days out, and for late March, that's impressive. In line with EPS. Let's just get a steady increase till every member looks like an e1, control combo, okay?

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  On 3/16/2018 at 12:48 AM, Cobalt said:

Less fantastic? Look at the mean! We're still near 5 days out, and for late March, that's impressive. In line with EPS. Let's just get a steady increase till every member looks like an e1, control combo, okay?

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Yeah, looking at it a second time, I'd be happy with the vast majority of those runs :)

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@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms. I don't think there's been a single "X looks bad, but it's 5 days out we have plenty of time for that to trend" comment and previous threads are PACKED with that kind of stuff.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:03 AM, MountainGeek said:

@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms.

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Pretty easy answer. Front runner is all rain and the trailer doesn't close off or interact in a meaningful way. 

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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:03 AM, MountainGeek said:

@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms. I don't think there's been a single "X looks bad, but it's 5 days out we have plenty of time for that to trend" comment and previous threads are PACKED with that kind of stuff.

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Having it all just not come together perfectly IMO.  The lead wave is too warm...the second wave doesn't develop exactly where we need or amplify enough...moderate precip instead of heavy... something like that.  I could see some situation where we end up with 1" qpf over a long period from 2 waves and no one gets any significant accumulation because it never came together.  That is the greatest risk. 

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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:05 AM, nj2va said:
Snow total forecast made public 5 days out..what could go wrong?
They're auto generated
Always thought the output was interesting

Was rereading earlier in thread where someone posted a similar image so I checked and this is the highest snow amount I've seen on wunderground all winter

It uses a blend of model output I believe
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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:16 AM, Jandurin said:

They're auto generated
Always thought the output was interesting

Was rereading earlier in thread where someone posted a similar image so I checked and this is the highest snow amount I've seen on wunderground all winter

It uses a blend of model output I believe

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Yeah I just think its dumb that Wunderground even puts out snowfall forecasts 5+ days in advance, whether they are model or human generated.  But then again Twitter is full of “Mets” who post snowfall maps as if they’re gospel so there’s that.  

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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:20 AM, nj2va said:
Yeah I just think its dumb that Wunderground even puts out snowfall forecasts 5+ days in advance, whether they are model or human generated.  But then again Twitter is full of “Mets” who post snowfall maps as if they’re gospel so there’s that.  

No problem agreeing with that. They'll go from this to all rain after 00z

 

 

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WTH happened? I have a busy day at work and come back to this thread and there are like 20 additional pages. The Euro is pretty amazing for a late March event. And it has pretty good agreement from just about every other model out there. That makes me stand up and take attention. With every other event this year we never had model consensus on anything. 

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So when this turns out to be a late March SECS without the March 1958 totals, will people still complain even given the pathetic lack of a winter this year? My guess is yes. HM really set the bar high.....this is all Im seeing now all over FB and Twitter. 1958 was something special. This has some similarities tho I seriously doubt anything close to as widespread of a redux will even come close to verifying. I would love to see it but I am keeping expectations tempered. I would be thrilled with a 3-6" event for late March.

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  On 3/16/2018 at 1:29 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:
So when this turns out to be a late March SECS without the March 1958 totals, will people still complain even given the pathetic lack of a winter this year? My guess is yes. HM really set the bar high.....this is all Im seeing now all over FB and Twitter. 1958 was something special. This has some similarities tho I seriously doubt anything close to as widespread of a redux will even come close to verifying. I would love to see it but I am keeping expectations tempered. I would be thrilled with a 3-6" event for late March.
Seriously give me 3-5" and I'll call it a regular bad winter
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