I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On mobile dont have my links could you post the next few frames? Im curious how it looks for the 2nd part.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On mobile dont have my links could you post the next few frames? Im curious how it looks for the 2nd part.

There's quite a bit of spread.

[Jandurin]

There's quite a bit of spread.

Figuring out where the first piece goes will completely change the second

[ErinInTheSky]

GEFS is less fantastic than I was hoping for, but at least almost every member shows snow.

 

[Jandurin]

This will work out  because its actually going to be on the last day of winter or early spring. GGEM

 
GFS

 
Euro

Underrated post

[Cobalt]

Just now, supernovasky said:

GEFS is less fantastic than I was hoping for, but at least almost every member shows snow.

 

Less fantastic? Look at the mean! We're still near 5 days out, and for late March, that's impressive. In line with EPS. Let's just get a steady increase till every member looks like an e1, control combo, okay?

[ErinInTheSky]

5/21 solutions = 6"+

 

8/21 show 1-6"

[ErinInTheSky]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Less fantastic? Look at the mean! We're still near 5 days out, and for late March, that's impressive. In line with EPS. Let's just get a steady increase till every member looks like an e1, control combo, okay?

Yeah, looking at it a second time, I'd be happy with the vast majority of those runs

[Cobalt]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Yeah, looking at it a second time, I'd be happy with the vast majority of those runs

I like also comparing to the previous 3 runs. Looks a whole lot better.

[ErinInTheSky]

Its weird to have the Euro on our side for a snow-bomb sub 144 hours...

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Its weird to have the Euro on our side for a snow-bomb sub 144 hours...

Its also good to have the EPS be more bullish than the GEFS

[MountainGeek]

@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms. I don't think there's been a single "X looks bad, but it's 5 days out we have plenty of time for that to trend" comment and previous threads are PACKED with that kind of stuff.

[Jandurin]

n

[nj2va]

Just now, Jandurin said:

http://i.imgur.com/jEga6he.jpg

Snow total forecast made public 5 days out..what could go wrong?

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

code yellow

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms.

Pretty easy answer. Front runner is all rain and the trailer doesn't close off or interact in a meaningful way. 

[BristowWx]

Well if this fails I had fun.  I am used to waking up and reading “looks like the overnight runs took a step back”..good news is this is probably the end.  

[nj2va]

Is Fairfax County brining the roads yet?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

@psuhoffman @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Yeah, we're not under 100 hrs yet, but what are your thoughts on the most likely ways we fail or at least substantially underperform potential? 

What key features would we want to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Temps/climo/mixing seems to be a possible threat -- but so far no red flags at 500s on any of the guidance like we've been seeing at this range for past storms. I don't think there's been a single "X looks bad, but it's 5 days out we have plenty of time for that to trend" comment and previous threads are PACKED with that kind of stuff.

Having it all just not come together perfectly IMO.  The lead wave is too warm...the second wave doesn't develop exactly where we need or amplify enough...moderate precip instead of heavy... something like that.  I could see some situation where we end up with 1" qpf over a long period from 2 waves and no one gets any significant accumulation because it never came together.  That is the greatest risk. 

[Jandurin]

Snow total forecast made public 5 days out..what could go wrong?

They're auto generated
Always thought the output was interesting

Was rereading earlier in thread where someone posted a similar image so I checked and this is the highest snow amount I've seen on wunderground all winter

It uses a blend of model output I believe

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

They're auto generated
Always thought the output was interesting

Was rereading earlier in thread where someone posted a similar image so I checked and this is the highest snow amount I've seen on wunderground all winter

It uses a blend of model output I believe

Yeah I just think its dumb that Wunderground even puts out snowfall forecasts 5+ days in advance, whether they are model or human generated.  But then again Twitter is full of “Mets” who post snowfall maps as if they’re gospel so there’s that.  

[Climate175]

In contrast, Accuweather is calling for rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Jandurin]

Yeah I just think its dumb that Wunderground even puts out snowfall forecasts 5+ days in advance, whether they are model or human generated.  But then again Twitter is full of “Mets” who post snowfall maps as if they’re gospel so there’s that.  

No problem agreeing with that. They'll go from this to all rain after 00z

 

 

[Heisy]

Im surprised Ji didnt post the 12z JMA it has beefed up WAA snows thru 120 hours. Then at 144 hours it is showing an almost closed off ULL at 500mb that is ready to explode. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, Jandurin said:

Can't believe we haven't had a 3-5 inch event in 2 years

Is that really accurate

Some people topped 3" in the December event, or last March's event. 

[clskinsfan]

WTH happened? I have a busy day at work and come back to this thread and there are like 20 additional pages. The Euro is pretty amazing for a late March event. And it has pretty good agreement from just about every other model out there. That makes me stand up and take attention. With every other event this year we never had model consensus on anything. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

So when this turns out to be a late March SECS without the March 1958 totals, will people still complain even given the pathetic lack of a winter this year? My guess is yes. HM really set the bar high.....this is all Im seeing now all over FB and Twitter. 1958 was something special. This has some similarities tho I seriously doubt anything close to as widespread of a redux will even come close to verifying. I would love to see it but I am keeping expectations tempered. I would be thrilled with a 3-6" event for late March.

[Jandurin]

Some people topped 3" in the December event, or last March's event. 

That's a 1-3" event

[Cobalt]

Just now, Jandurin said:

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Some people topped 3" in the December event, or last March's event. 

That's a 1-3" event

topping 3"? Should've said 3"+ then. 

[Jandurin]

So when this turns out to be a late March SECS without the March 1958 totals, will people still complain even given the pathetic lack of a winter this year? My guess is yes. HM really set the bar high.....this is all Im seeing now all over FB and Twitter. 1958 was something special. This has some similarities tho I seriously doubt anything close to as widespread of a redux will even come close to verifying. I would love to see it but I am keeping expectations tempered. I would be thrilled with a 3-6" event for late March.

Seriously give me 3-5" and I'll call it a regular bad winter