I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Cobalt]

Just now, B-Paq said:

Guys, I'm looking at the "snow depth" product on Pivotal - how does that work?  Sun angle and melting on contact, etc?  Because that map looks a hell of a lot more realistic for March 22nd than even the Kuchera maps.

I'm not fully sure, but I've found it useful to blend Kuchera with snow depth in marginal events. 

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So I asked this with the last storm when we were getting 4-6" totals, and everyone said no.

 

If, right now, you could lock that GFS run up there verbatim or take your chances, would you?

Lock it up but it's showing 15" up here so that's an easy call. Lol

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

PDII is the #2 analog

Looks good for boston.

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I really like this setup except for the date like you said. It's uncanny how similar all the guidance is handling this and we're inside the "red flag" range when all our previous systems presented their warts. The issue here is we need everything to come together perfectly. A mediocre result that would have been an 8" snow in February will be an unhappy ending March 22. 

But the perfect setup is possible. One thing that is on the table is what HM said earlier. I considered posting this after I saw similarities from the overnight runs but thought Randy might ban me. The 1958 comparison is legit. Look at the h5 from that. This might even be south of that a bit. 

The upper level evolution is very similar with an upper low getting essentially stuck and forced to stall then with a second price of energy dig and amplify but very slowly as it's trapped in the flow. That's how we got that storm to sit off the coast for days like that. Seeing the same pattern lends credence to the idea on the guidance that this could be a long duration event. The euro put a bit too much into the front so the back was weaker but who cares it HECS us with the front side lol. The other guidance is more split and have two healthy waves. It's complicated how those waves play off each other but if they decide to play nice this has big upside potential. 

Its just potential at this point. But it's legit. It's on all guidance. The pattern supports it. We've seen the crazy analogs spitting out all month for this blocking. There has been snow all around us the last 2 weeks. I don't think this pattern has been bad. We've just been unlucky. There were flaws in the pattern all winter. This month we just weren't in the right spot. The shotgun blasts of snow hit all around us. There were discreet reasons for that. Primary too far north. NS vort diving on top. No cold in front. But this h5 pattern has been and is ripe. 

Randy can ban me but I'm not gonna ignore it just because we're frustrated over recent lack of snow. I'm not gassing up my snowblower yet either. I know this could go bad easily. But it also could be our turn and in not gonna miss tracking it over frustration at the last storm. 

With the resulting H5 looking similar it's hard to tell why we get a miller A instead of a miler B.  Also this ones got a deepening high in Quebec like DEC 2003  or if you want a real weenie analog, January 1922.

 

[WVclimo]

19 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

PDII is the #2 analog

That 3/29/1984 event, the #1 analog, was a hell of a storm.  Intense outbreak of tornadoes in the southeast, record-low pressures along the mid-Atlantic coast.  Two-day total of 3.81" of liquid capped off with 8" of snow at MRB.  Winds gusted above 40 mph.  10-12" across Garrett County, MD.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

With the resulting H5 looking similar it's hard to tell why we get a miller A instead of a miler B.  Also this ones got a deepening high in Quebec like DEC 2003  or if you want a real weenie analog, January 1922.

 

58 was a weird hybrid with some weak primary west but the main development was off the coast. Analogs aren't perfect  and they may differ in how they get to that point but the idea is a long stalled system is supported. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WVclimo said:

That 3/29/1984 event, the #1 analog, was a hell of a storm.  Intense outbreak of tornadoes in the southeast, record-low pressures along the mid-Atlantic coast.  Two-day total of 3.81" of liquid capped off with 8" of snow at MRB.  Winds gusted above 40 mph.  10-12" across Garrett County, MD.

Someone broke those analogs. They are a spread of such different storm types it's hard to get anything from them. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Someone broke those analogs. They are a spread of such different storm types it's hard to get anything from them. 

I think I can agree to that. I mean, they range from a no-storm in April to a Toronto ice storm. Not much to take from them, just pointing out analog #2

[stormy]

15 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Did you miss the part where the GFS gives eastern maryland a foot of snow?

I did not. These snow maps perhaps are wonderful in mid January, but are optimistic in mid March. Eastern Maryland is at a very low elevation for huge mid March accumulations. You may score high but don't hold your breath.

[nj2va]

I like where the NAVGEM was heading...I’d like that closed vort more south though.  

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Someone broke those analogs. They are a spread of such different storm types it's hard to get anything from them. 

Lol, just realized Feb 1983 is on there.  I think they are trolling us

[66degreesnorth]

 
I don't think I can park myself in UHI hell for some slop, while someone 50-100 miles away gets 18"+.  

Do you think that all of DC proper is affected by UHI hell, or is that mainly limited to the downtown core? I'd be interested in studies or anecdotal evidence that compared areas like Cleveland Park and Chevy Chase in upper NW DC to say Chinatown.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks like gefs are about 1"+ qpf.  looks a little better overall then 12z.

Yea man, qpf panels are sweet as heck. Big qpf signal right here

[Amped]

GEFS  P001 is the best although it misses with thelead, there's a deform band 150-168, a couple of other members are close to that.  It's what we want, maybe 6hrs earlier would be ideal.

The lead wave maybe a pest rather than a performer here like the euro shows.

[Interstate]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

I did not. These snow maps perhaps are wonderful in mid January, but are optimistic in mid March. Eastern Maryland is at a very low elevation for huge mid March accumulations. You may score high but don't hold your breath.

What if it happens at night?

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, stormy said:

I did not. These snow maps perhaps are wonderful in mid January, but are optimistic in mid March. Eastern Maryland is at a very low elevation for huge mid March accumulations. You may score high but don't hold your breath.

Look at this. Snow. Sticking to the roads in mid March in daytime. A small event too. Not a "would have been 8-10" in January" event. 

On 3/14/2018 at 1:25 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

nice event 3.5"here 

timeslapse

https://video.nest.com/clip/9932077999e743a4a7056a07d1d62f7a.mp4

 

[Scraff]

34 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'm not fully sure, but I've found it useful to blend Kuchera with snow depth in marginal events. 

I find it useful to blend a little Kuchera in my gin and tonic. Helps me get thru our spring snow season without pain. 

[MountainGeek]

40 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'm reaching because this is pretty far ahead, but a heavy wet snowstorm would cause quite a bit of outages, so that's another reason to root for colder temps with this one.

Definitely -- that's the other way I see this going down. Either a super-epic fail short-range tease to cap the winter off, OR we get mega-shellacked with heavy wet snow and weenie roofs start caving in and trees get destroyed. Either way I think Mother Nature's gonna get the last retort in for all of our whining.  

[Climate175]

CWG has a new article out on this potential storm next week.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

CWG has a new article out on this potential storm next week.

Let me guess...bearish on the the prospect?  Can’t blame them if they are.  

[gymengineer]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Someone broke those analogs. They are a spread of such different storm types it's hard to get anything from them. 

The two short term busts in the top 5 analogs (91 and 01)—in modeling regimes of 15 to almost 30 years ago—suggest to me that in our much better modeling era, we could still get fairly close to short term and see a dramatic shift one way or another. 

I also agree with you that a verbatim repeat of 3/58 would be pretty awful in the cities and not very good in the closer in suburbs that went over 10” in that event. 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Let me guess...bearish on the the prospect?  Can’t blame them if they are.  

Thank goodness they didn't include the euro snow map.

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Let me guess...bearish on the the prospect?  Can’t blame them if they are.  

I wouldn't say that, I would just say they are optimistically cautious.

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Thank goodness they didn't include the euro snow map.

If they did, game over.

[WeathermanB]

I gotta admit, i did kind of underestimated the ECMWF. Somehow i still thought we were gonna get moderate snow accumulation this past storm even though the euro didn't show a big snow for me. Turns out it was right.

[MountainGeek]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Let me guess...bearish on the the prospect?  Can’t blame them if they are.  

 

Ending sentence from the CWG article: "The bottom line is that pattern seems to offer at least one more small chance for a winter storm before we turn to spring. More likely than not, it will not materialize into a blockbuster, but the European model suggests we pay close attention."

Now we have to keep Wes and Ian from dropping in this thread for at least 2 more days.....and ITS HAPPENING!!!!

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

I wouldn't say that, I would just say they are optimistically cautious.

Makes sense.  We are on the cusp of an historic event.  In March. Late March.  We have a long road ahead and fail looms large.  We need this to fire on all cylinders. No wiggle room.  

[Heisy]

Going to be a fun ride from here on out. I like your sub forums region because I think regardless of what the 2nd piece does you guys could certainly do well with WAA precip from the initial push.

Man if we took the 18z GFS at face value and just got part II to be wrapped up a bit more it would be a godly event.

Long way to go folks strap in.

[87storms]

the cwg article was reasonable.  need more consistency from the models.  if it still shows this at 12z saturday (or even 0z saturday), then i think we may be onto something.

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, Climate175 said:

On mobile dont have my links could you post the next few frames? Im curious how it looks for the 2nd part.