I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[ErinInTheSky]

I'll say I've enjoyed the fun nature of this thread, but if we get into sub 120h to first snow, I'll understand pinning and making it more serious.

Looks like we actually may have a shot. That EPS run was spectacular.

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Topper shutt just said he doesn’t know what the euro is smoking lol

Yeah, though he doesn't usually say that 

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Topper shutt just said he doesn’t know what the euro is smoking lol

In the Euros defense, this isn't the most straightforward setup. 

[nj2va]

I like where ICON is heading at the end of its run.  It favors N&W for all frozen (as expected) but the next few frames would have the coastal taking over and the column cooling to change 95 from rain to frozen I would think.

[H2O]

You all are trying to leave the bar at closing with a 10 and when you wake up in the morning he/she will be a -3.14159

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yeah, though he doesn't usually say that 

No one with any sense would publicly honk the Euro at this point.  And HECS is rare enough but on March 21st it would be a 100 year storm.  

[Scraff]

This thread has been more fun than any this winter. Just saying. If we get into  the real deal, I’m all for storm mode or whatever. Let’s just keep the good mojo running until death do us part. 

[nj2va]

The vort is onshore in less than 24 hours.

[Climate175]

Low for weekend event is a bit more north this run.

[Ji]

Icon seems to pick up on concepts pretty quickly.

[George BM]

Still some snow for Saturday on the 18z gfs.

[WeathermanB]

h5 vort at 18z a little farther north this run at hour 78.

[Climate175]

540 line is much farther south this run.

[Amped]

Low in quebec may try to do some sort of a backdoor phase like the CMC

[yoda]

1030 H in Quebec moving east at 114

[yoda]

Transfer going on at 117 to somewhere in NC

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'll say I've enjoyed the fun nature of this thread, but if we get into sub 1̶2̶0̶h̶ 48h to first snow, I'll understand pinning and making it more serious.

Looks like we actually may have a shot. That EPS run was spectacular.

Fixed!  (In this winter, don't trust nothin' until prime NAM range...lol)

[Bob Chill]

GFS is a good run no matter how you slice it. Trended the right way in every aspect from 12z. We're only talking d5 too. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS is a good run no matter how you slice it. Trended the right way in every aspect from 12z. We're only talking d5 too. 

Thought the same thing.  Looks way better than previous runs.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Thought the same thing.  Looks way better than previous runs.

Makes the euro believable. I think the euro is overdone (typical to much in the mid range) but the evolution is very similar and give credence to the idea. Front runner primes the pump so to speak. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS is a good run no matter how you slice it. Trended the right way in every aspect from 12z. We're only talking d5 too. 

Ya think that for once it's actually "bleeding" the right way for once? Lol (hope it continues to get colder, though!)

[Jandurin]

the timing for this storm works out WAY BETTER than the last fake storm

 

for me, i mean

[WVclimo]

18Z GFS just crushes the eastern panhandle of WV back through western MD.  Depicts a classic late-season event.

[Climate175]

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya think that for once it's actually "bleeding" the right way for once? Lol (hope it continues to get colder, though!)

The "1-2 punch" in the upper levels is very tricky to get right in the mid range. Seeing the GFS hold the idea and come in further south/colder from 12z is an important shift with the front runner. It's razor thin margin of error no matter how you look at it. Don't marry anything until the short range. 

[ErinInTheSky]

GFS moved in our direction. Bet the GEFS will look pretty great.

 

But just enough of a ptype fail to prevent pinning

[poolz1]

Another model run with a long duration event. Tricky but possible I guess.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[Amped]

H5 closed at 141, more precip from the 2nd low.This is similar to the JMA OC back to HSE solution.

[Climate175]

[Bob Chill]

The trailing piece closing off is the ticket to success. This HAS to happen