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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

EPS snow map looks REALLY good. Probably some Euro like solutions

eps_snow_m_washdc_31.thumb.png.cf0b39cad07cba0392e755399a1706a1.png

Holy crap. That's a serious signal for a snow mean from one event at that lead. That's :o stuff right there. I've been kinda joking around but I wasn't expecting that at all. The EPS doesn't usually go that hard for something at this range. Feels like things just got real a little. 

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Thanatos_I_Am

Thanatos_I_Am

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap. That's a serious signal for a snow mean from one event at that lead. That's :o stuff right there. I've been kinda joking around but I wasn't expecting that at all. The EPS doesn't usually go that hard for something at this range. Feels like things just got real a little. 

You should take a look at the members... some of them would make you shed a tear. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap. That's a serious signal for a snow mean from one event at that lead. That's :o stuff right there. I've been kinda joking around but I wasn't expecting that at all. The EPS doesn't usually go that hard for something at this range. Feels like things just got real a little. 

Us for the next 12 hours

5aaaccf932d67_giphy(2).gif.7576c11150314faa20c332b3d5849cf0.gif

 

 

 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap. That's a serious signal for a snow mean from one event at that lead. That's :o stuff right there. I've been kinda joking around but I wasn't expecting that at all. The EPS doesn't usually go that hard for something at this range. Feels like things just got real a little. 

You are getting sucked in... don't do it!!!

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Thanatos_I_Am

Thanatos_I_Am

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All these fails have been long range. Imagine if we end the year with a tease to the last minute then another rug pull like 2001. That would be the perfect ending. 

Is it wrong that I am sorta rooting for that? In my mind if we are gonna fail, might as well do it miserably and in the worst way possible. 

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All these fails have been long range. Imagine if we end the year with a tease to the last minute then another rug pull like 2001. That would be the perfect ending. 

Either that or we actually do get shellacked and in that case, I think every single person on the forum owes @Jebman a drink! Or maybe take up a collection and send him to Charles Town casino for a day on us....

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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Posted
22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy crap. That's a serious signal for a snow mean from one event at that lead. That's :o stuff right there. I've been kinda joking around but I wasn't expecting that at all. The EPS doesn't usually go that hard for something at this range. Feels like things just got real a little. 

i havent seen purple on the EPS since that fake December Southern stream junk

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You are getting sucked in... don't do it!!!

Nope. I do probability calculus on everything. That was an :o run of the ecmwf and EPS. But one run of any guidance at 5.5 days (there JI & Randy) isn't going to move the needle that much imo. The highest level confidence I could possibly have right now given the time of year and Nina is only maybe 40% likelyhood of significant snow.  And that would be if everything looked like the euro does. Kind of like January 2016 looked from 5.5 days out. 

So today the guidance was a big win though imo. Gfs was by far the warmest. So let's assume that's wrong. If you correct 2 degrees colder the gfs isn't out of line with the other guidance. The U.K. Was the typical over amped outlier on track so toss. That leaves us with a pretty amazing consensus for this range across guidance.  but it's still outside 100 hours so that's as far as I'll go. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope. I do probability calculus on everything. That was an :o run of the ecmwf and EPS. But one run of any guidance at 5.5 days (there JI & Randy) isn't going to move the needle that much imo. The highest level confidence I could possibly have right now given the time of year and Nina is only maybe 40% likelyhood of significant snow.  And that would be if everything looked like the euro does. Kind of like January 2016 looked from 5.5 days out. 

So today the guidance was a big win though imo. Gfs was by far the warmest. So let's assume that's wrong. If you correct 2 degrees colder the gfs isn't out of line with the other guidance. The U.K. Was the typical over amped outlier on track so toss. That leaves us with a pretty amazing consensus for this range across guidance.  but it's still outside 100 hours so that's as far as I'll go. 

i never look at 5.5 days...i look at this....without this at 96..there is no 5.5 days lol. so we are 4 days out imo....ecmwf_z500a_us_5.png

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