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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

You guys down there have no idea how bad I'm rooting for this to be your storm. I'm bringing a load of produce in from California to Pottsville PA, and I'm hoping like hell it stays south and hammers you guys. That way I can slip in across I-80 smoking currus, or perhaps a few flurries, but othwise hopefully high and dry for safe travels.

I doubt it, though... :unsure:

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Always nice to be in the Bull eye 5/6 days out... what could go wrong

Well we weren't in the bullseye at that range (except for maybe a run or two) the last time and it still went sideways, so...this year it doesn't doesn't mean much, one way or the other! (I distinctly remember things being just south of us last week and folks saying "that's a good spot to be in") Let's just take each run as it comes...

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

PSU, post the Day 6 map for the the past 3 screwjobs.  Thanks.

Gfs?  Euro lost it by day 6 on the last several threats. Last euro run that had any snow before this Tuesday's debacle was Monday night the week before. 7 days out. But your point is valid. 

On the other hand this is our best setup all year. It really is. We're inside the range where the major pattern level changes that stole storms happened before. By now the general look was seen. We have blocking. We have a 50/50 leading in. This time there isn't a Northern stream Vort diving down on top of us like every other time. It's digging in behind where we want it. It's a pretty classic look honestly.  I'm not shocked the models are kicking out omg solutions.

That said I would bet fail if I had to put money on it. Mostly because of the date. We need everything to go perfect this late. If it comes together any less then perfect and it's a .75 qpf storm instead of a 2" qpf bomb instead of being a good mecs 6-10" storm in winter it's a slushy 1-2" probably now, if that. So my money is still on fail but not because I expect this to fall apart. I just bet it ends up less then perfect and this time of year that's a fail. But this likely teases and tortures us to the end. 

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Ji

Ji

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Nobody even mentioned the JMA, probably cause it shows a lame 1.8".  But lol at the stormtrack, it's playing Hopscotch on all of the KU reference points. TN-OC back to HSE  to 40/70
Every storm that hated last week loves next week. Icon ggem jma euro. We might have an American modelling problem
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Amped said:
Nobody even mentioned the JMA, probably cause it shows a lame 1.8".  But lol at the stormtrack, it's playing Hopscotch on all of the KU reference points. TN-OC back to HSE  to 40/70

Every storm that hated last week loves next week. Icon ggem jma euro. We might have an American modelling problem

The gfs doesn't actually hate it, it's just running a couple degrees warmer then other guidance. You realize if you correct that it would be showing the same general thing. We have excellent agreement across guidance for this range. 

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

Here's my wild theory/hope - in '09/'10 when we ran so hot the Boston area was missing out quite a bit. We ended up missing the late Feb. 2010 storm which finally shifted snow to our north after our area being bullseyed for a long time.

I am hoping that this is the return for that. That the SNE area, buried for at least a month now, finally sees one pass through to our area while they mostly miss out.

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