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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

An interesting blend between a storm thread and a banter thread.  This must have been what scientists felt like when they decided to mate a donkey and a zebra.

pretty sure at this point it doesn't matter. most here are dead. if this threat is still on the table come sunday, then i think we will ask that everyone be less bantering. in the meantime, have it. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
There has been talk over the last few days about the possibilities around what is now day 8. Well the overnight Euro Op and EPS are game. GEFS shows the possibilities but it is not quite there.
Now below is day 7 on the EPS leading into our possible storm. It is actually a pretty sweet setup for an east coast storm. Blocking in Greenland with a 50/50 planted in a prime spot and a shortwave (positive tilt) pulling out of the central US. Now what makes this setup even sweeter is the fact that we are seeing a break down of the blocking occurring allowing the 50/50 to pull out to the north and east as the shortwave starts pulling through the east. As many know this breakdown is often associated with our bigger east coast storms as it allows the shortwave to amplify and go negative tilt just off the coast pulling what would most likely be a rapidly deepening low up the benchmark track. We see this at three days and there will be a lot of people woofing.
epsday7500mb.gif.1d70252b69083e9751fe217ee494a625.gif
Now the GEFS is close but not quite there yet. Compared to the above EPS we see stronger blocking over Greenland which is effectively shoving our 50/50 farther south and west. What this does to the shortwave pulling out of the central US is to weaken it and suppress it farther to the south if it doesn't kill it off altogether. Now with this setup it could still possibly work if we see the GEFS breaking down the blocking at this time as the EPS. But it isn't, it stays strong and this setup would just be another fail on a long list of fails. 
gefsday7500mb.gif.b5e3ffba94bdd89d052f74098b17a150.gif
Now seeing as we can't seem to get snow in reality I thought I would throw up a couple of snow maps to fantasize over for at least the next 6-12 hours. So enjoy.
Below is the Euro op for through day 9 at 10 to 1 ratio.
euroopday8-9.gif.5939ead761c57dcb2176cf87a08d22d8.gif
EPS control run.
controlday8-9.thumb.gif.c69f361ebc68cc9f1760176bf08b08c0.gif
Euro op with Kuchera. Notice we see a decent increase over the 10 to 1 map. Not going to look in-depth on the temp profile but going just by the snowmaps it seems that the Euro sees a cold storm with this one.
euroopkucheraday8-9.gif.542a24bfa02f688b5b08f055e19b1806.gif
 
Now at this point the ensemble members on the EPS do show some hits but I wouldn't say it is in your face and in fact it is somewhat underwhelming when you consider the overall look at 500's. Hopefully we see those increase over the coming days. The GEFS? Let's just say it is hinting at the possibility.
***Just saw that C.A.P.E posted a snowfall map. Sorry for the double posting.
 
 
 
Im guessing the usual seasonal 2018 bias/rule will play out with a blend of the Euro/GFS families with a small lean towards the GFS. I thought I read somewhere here where PSU has mentioned this a few times as ending up being reality as well.
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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

An interesting blend between a storm thread and a banter thread.  This must have been what scientists felt like when they decided to mate a donkey and a zebra.

So it will be the zonkey storm?

or the donbra?

or brakey?

zedon?

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:
There has been talk over the last few days about the possibilities around what is now day 8. Well the overnight Euro Op and EPS are game. GEFS shows the possibilities but it is not quite there.
Now below is day 7 on the EPS leading into our possible storm. It is actually a pretty sweet setup for an east coast storm. Blocking in Greenland with a 50/50 planted in a prime spot and a shortwave (positive tilt) pulling out of the central US. Now what makes this setup even sweeter is the fact that we are seeing a break down of the blocking occurring allowing the 50/50 to pull out to the north and east as the shortwave starts pulling through the east. As many know this breakdown is often associated with our bigger east coast storms as it allows the shortwave to amplify and go negative tilt just off the coast pulling what would most likely be a rapidly deepening low up the benchmark track. We see this at three days and there will be a lot of people woofing.

Now the GEFS is close but not quite there yet. Compared to the above EPS we see stronger blocking over Greenland which is effectively shoving our 50/50 farther south and west. What this does to the shortwave pulling out of the central US is to weaken it and suppress it farther to the south if it doesn't kill it off altogether. Now with this setup it could still possibly work if we see the GEFS breaking down the blocking at this time as the EPS. But it isn't, it stays strong and this setup would just be another fail on a long list of fails. 

Now seeing as we can't seem to get snow in reality I thought I would throw up a couple of snow maps to fantasize over for at least the next 6-12 hours. So enjoy.
Below is the Euro op for through day 9 at 10 to 1 ratio.

EPS control run.

Euro op with Kuchera. Notice we see a decent increase over the 10 to 1 map. Not going to look in-depth on the temp profile but going just by the snowmaps it seems that the Euro sees a cold storm with this one.

 
Now at this point the ensemble members on the EPS do show some hits but I wouldn't say it is in your face and in fact it is somewhat underwhelming when you consider the overall look at 500's. Hopefully we see those increase over the coming days. The GEFS? Let's just say it is hinting at the possibility.
***Just saw that C.A.P.E posted a snowfall map. Sorry for the double posting.
 
 
 

Im guessing the usual seasonal 2018 bias/rule will play out with a blend of the Euro/GFS families with a small lean towards the GFS. I thought I read somewhere here where PSU has mentioned this a few times as ending up being reality as well.

Yeah, sounds about right. Suppressed underneath us until it gets revived off shore just in time to slam Jersey on up. But this time I might freaking chance if it is throwing out these 2' + totals up north. Throw the dogs in the kennel and head on up. With or without my wife. :)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Psu, repost all of the snow maps from every storm that looked good from 180 to 96 hours out this winter.  

I'm torn. Somewhere between where you are and the JI camp. Yea a lot of storms looked like juiced up SW to NE storms from range only to take on the more typical Nina suppressed to late developing coastal scrapers and New England storms. So it won't shock me at all if it goes that way. On the other hand while we do still "struggle" even with blocking in a Nina we also typically eventually get something. And one issue with yesterday was the blocking didn't break. That helped hold heights down and prevent amplification in time for us. This time if the blocking is during its final breakdown might be the real window we were fooled into thinking the 12th was. But even if it is "the storm" were fighting climo too so maybe we get a perfect storm that would have been 12" in January and it ends up a 1-3" slop event inside the beltway. 

My confidence that there is another big snow somewhere in the east is high. My confidence we get teased again is high. My confidence we actually get hit is low. But I'm pretty numb to it at this point so I'm tracking. Another fail won't affect me much. I'm over it. Honestly my attention is 70% on my ski trip to New England the last week of March. My injury wasn't as bad as I feared and I'm thinking it might be on and looks epic up there. If somehow we get snow also...great. If not...oh well. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

IMO. This is how every thread should be. I havent laughed this hard since the first time I saw Midlo bury his own yard with a snow machine.

Right now we have a much smaller group (mostly the regulars) following this and it is somewhat manageable. In the heart of winter we would probably be looking at 5 to 10 times, if not even more, people following all wanting to add into to the banter. We saw that several times this winter where it was an absolute crap fest. Pretty much why we have a banter thread to begin with. To allow an avenue for people to post whatever without trashing the model discussion thread beyond redemption.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm torn. Somewhere between where you are and the JI camp. Yea a lot of storms looked like juiced up SW to NE storms from range only to take on the more typical Nina suppressed to late developing coastal scrapers and New England storms. So it won't shock me at all if it goes that way. On the other hand while we do still "struggle" even with blocking in a Nina we also typically eventually get something. And one issue with yesterday was the blocking didn't break. That helped hold heights down and prevent amplification in time for us. This time if the blocking is during its final breakdown might be the real window we were fooled into thinking the 12th was. But even if it is "the storm" were fighting climo too so maybe we get a perfect storm that would have been 12" in January and it ends up a 1-3" slop event inside the beltway. 

My confidence that there is another big snow somewhere in the east is high. My confidence we get teased again is high. My confidence we actually get hit is low. But I'm pretty numb to it at this point so I'm tracking. Another fail won't affect me much. I'm over it. Honestly my attention is 70% on my ski trip to New England the last week of March. My injury wasn't as bad as I feared and I'm thinking it might be on and looks epic up there. If somehow we get snow also...great. If not...oh well. 

Where in New England are you thinking of going? I'm also considering a ski trip somewhere if I can take a few days off, but I'm not sure yet.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm torn. Somewhere between where you are and the JI camp. Yea a lot of storms looked like juiced up SW to NE storms from range only to take on the more typical Nina suppressed to late developing coastal scrapers and New England storms. So it won't shock me at all if it goes that way. On the other hand while we do still "struggle" even with blocking in a Nina we also typically eventually get something. And one issue with yesterday was the blocking didn't break. That helped hold heights down and prevent amplification in time for us. This time if the blocking is during its final breakdown might be the real window we were fooled into thinking the 12th was. But even if it is "the storm" were fighting climo too so maybe we get a perfect storm that would have been 12" in January and it ends up a 1-3" slop event inside the beltway. 

My confidence that there is another big snow somewhere in the east is high. My confidence we get teased again is high. My confidence we actually get hit is low. But I'm pretty numb to it at this point so I'm tracking. Another fail won't affect me much. I'm over it. Honestly my attention is 70% on my ski trip to New England the last week of March. My injury wasn't as bad as I feared and I'm thinking it might be on and looks epic up there. If somehow we get snow also...great. If not...oh well. 

Glad to hear that. If anyone deserves snow in this forum, it's probably you. Hopefully we get both snow here & you get an epic ski trip in :)

I'm going skiing for spring break out West, so I can't complain about the lack of snow here.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm torn. Somewhere between where you are and the JI camp. Yea a lot of storms looked like juiced up SW to NE storms from range only to take on the more typical Nina suppressed to late developing coastal scrapers and New England storms. So it won't shock me at all if it goes that way. On the other hand while we do still "struggle" even with blocking in a Nina we also typically eventually get something. And one issue with yesterday was the blocking didn't break. That helped hold heights down and prevent amplification in time for us. This time if the blocking is during its final breakdown might be the real window we were fooled into thinking the 12th was. But even if it is "the storm" were fighting climo too so maybe we get a perfect storm that would have been 12" in January and it ends up a 1-3" slop event inside the beltway. 

My confidence that there is another big snow somewhere in the east is high. My confidence we get teased again is high. My confidence we actually get hit is low. But I'm pretty numb to it at this point so I'm tracking. Another fail won't affect me much. I'm over it. Honestly my attention is 70% on my ski trip to New England the last week of March. My injury wasn't as bad as I feared and I'm thinking it might be on and looks epic up there. If somehow we get snow also...great. If not...oh well. 

Hmmm....I missed that somehow, hope everything works out well and you get to enjoy the trip.

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