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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
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ICON coming in much colder in front of the lead system approaching from the west.  More like the euro WRT the WAA ahead of the system.  
Trying not to focus on surface so not taken verbatim but a 998 lp in KY drifting N (albeit slowly weakening) probably wont cut it unless secondary can explode and strengthen CAD signature. Not sure how I feel about this ICON....has some pros and cons for sure.
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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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I cannot help but look at guidance and think this has a very similar look to the last system where were hoping for the primary to die rapidly and secondary explode at the same exact lead time. Primary headed ENEish into lower OV, etc. Im close to congratulating NE but will wait until lead time shrinks much like last system. Probably by 12z Saturday they should be on board for another suppressed hooker. Why change seasonal pattern now right?

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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10 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

it'd be hard to do worse

Year to date snowfall at DCA 3.7"

1918-19: 3.3

1930-31: 2.5

1949-50: 3.4

1972-73: 0.1

1975-76: 2.2

1997-98: 0.1

2001-02: 3.2

2011-12: 2.0

2012-13: 3.1

2017-18: 3.4

Observations:  Even if we don't get another trace this two year stretch is the second worst period on record going back to 1887.  2011-2013 was worse by a fraction.  

We have never had 3 in a row.  So were due LOL

There is an obvious increase in the frequency of these dreadful years.  They used to happen once every 30 years and now they have happened 4 times in the last 10 years.  That is not enough of a sample size to say correlation yet but its a troubling trend.  I am not sure its as simple as putting it all on warming, we are also still recovering from a solar minimum period and we have gone through a positive AMO and positive NAO cycle at the same time...not a favorable one for snowfall around here.  So if the long term phase of the NAO flips soon we could see a more consistent snowfall distribution year to year come back.  

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87storms

87storms

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I cannot help but look at guidance and think this has a very similar look to the last system where were hoping for the primary to die rapidly and secondary explode at the same exact lead time. Primary headed ENEish into lower OV, etc. Im close to congratulating NE but will wait until lead time shrinks mich like last system. Probably by 12z Saturday they should be on board for another suppressed hooker.

this looks quite a bit different than the last one though.  interior northeast would do really well with the current track.  the low is much further north, but we also won't get precip hole'd with this setup either.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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this looks quite a bit different than the last one though.  interior northeast would do really well with the current track.  the low is much further north, but we also won't get precip hole'd with this setup either.
Yeah, storm looked the same for interior NW areas 5 days out last system too. That was my point and we all saw how that evolved right?
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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GFS was a decent step towards what we want.  It trended colder as we get closer.  We don't actually need it that much south (maybe another 50 miles would be ideal) just colder.  It tries to cool the column this time and just can't quite do it although its REALLY close for elevated places in the NW parts...now it looks like round 2 is still there also as the NS dives in and phases.  Usually I would throw that kind of thing out at this range except it keeps showing up across guidance run after run so there might be something to this type of evolution.  But we are actually close to being in the game for the WAA front side with the GFS now.  ICON was a hit with both parts.  This has my interest even if I know its likely one more fail to throw on the dumpster fire of this winter.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
8 minutes ago, 87storms said:
this looks quite a bit different than the last one though.  interior northeast would do really well with the current track.  the low is much further north, but we also won't get precip hole'd with this setup either.

Yeah, storm looked the same for interior NW areas 5 days out last system too. That was my point and we all saw how that evolved right?

calm yourself...this has a very similar evolution...but the northern stream is diving in way further west this time.  At least that is what the guidance shows and the last few times they always had that feature in a bad spot for us.  This time the trough is digging in a good spot.  I feel less worried about the NS suppressing this for our region like I did the last few systems.  Problem IMO might be its just too late.  I could see this ending up something that would have been a MECS in Winter and just a 1-2" slop fest because of the time of year.  That is how I think this might go down.  

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