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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

40555CB8-F75B-48C4-98D1-2651E82FC87D.jpeg

Last night you asked a very fair question...and I gave an answer but just now I realized the best way to explain why I am still tracking.  That post I just made this morning...I enjoyed doing that.  I enjoyed looking at the overnight runs and seeing what they snow and analyzing what it might mean...thinking of all the analogs to this and how such a setup should play out...then considering what it might mean for us.  I enjoyed typing up my analysis of the situation and now I enjoy discussing it with you all and getting feedback.  I also enjoy learning...this is one more situation to add to my catalog of personal analog experience.  One more data source to add to my experience and help me in the future.  In short I am enjoying this RIGHT NOW.  Whether it snows next week or not has NOTHING to do with my enjoyment of this at this moment.  Of course I want it to snow next week and that would make it all the more sweet...but I am still enjoying this right now at this moment either way.  I am a pure weather junkie...its why I will watch a storm that isn't even affecting me directly and marvel at it.  I know that makes me crazy and weird but it's who I am and I am not fighting it.  Hope that helps explain it.  And again I in no way blame you for checking out.  I totally understand it and your reaction is probably way more rational then mine.  Just explaining why I don't check out no matter what the results IMBY are.  

ETA:  the only reason I don't do the same with severe or tropical is I am just not any good at it. I follow.  I lurk here during the summer.  And I track severe and tropical.  But I can't do with those what I do with winter tracking.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

@psuhoffman Nice writeup.

Saw much of what you saw on the overnights and thought the setup actually somewhat nice (or as nice as it can look in mid-March). But as you said the pattern is evolving and I agree so will we even see a semblance of this 4/5 days down the road? My biggest hangup is we went from simple and straight forward to now looking for several pieces to fall into place and time correctly a major one of them being the pv responding by rotating a piece of energy down around the departing 50/50 creating suppression for our system as it moves eastward. We don't see that or we see that feature 12-24 hours quicker or slower and we probably see our surface low gain far to much latitude to our west. Now counting on the models having that feature, an important one,  nailed down at 5 days is probably asking a lot. Especially when I have watched all winter where the models have struggled in the upper latitudes. 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

@psuhoffman Nice writeup.

Saw much of what you saw on the overnights and thought the setup actually somewhat nice (or as nice as it can look in mid-March). But as you said the pattern is evolving and I agree so will we even see a semblance of this 4/5 days down the road? My biggest hangup is we went from simple and straight forward to now looking for several pieces to fall into place and time correctly a major one of them being the pv responding by rotating a piece of energy down around the departing 50/50 creating suppression for our system as it moves eastward. We don't see that or we see that feature 12-24 hours quicker or slower and we probably see our surface low gain far to much latitude to our west. Now counting on the models having that feature, an important one,  nailed down at 5 days is probably asking a lot. Especially when I have watched all winter where the models have struggled in the upper latitudes. 

 

True about the moving parts...I guess I never see it as simple.  the 50/50 is a moving part...so having it be exactly where we want was something always subject to change.  So yea instead of one consolidated 50/50 low we end up with a pinwheel type setup where one lobe rotates around and into the area we need instead of just having the one low sit there.  the effect would be the same.  Yea it now involves 2 things instead of one but there are so many moving parts anyways.  The vort coming across from the west.  Where the NS dives in and phases.  The cold air available.  Where the coastal transfers and if it bombs and where.  UGH...  Its not simple even if it looks simple.  So we added one more features...to me its like so what.  If that one features wants to play nice I don't mind.  Something else can still fail too.  Its like a golf swing...any one of these 100 moving parts can screw EVERYTHING up...thats why I never thing its likely at this range no matter how amazing it looks.  

THe ONLY exception to that is when its prime climo, we have cold in place, blocking, and a juiced up monster STJ wave approaching.  Those are the once every 5 years type setups where we are almost guaranteed some snow from range and have a good chance of it becoming a big one.  Everything else requires so many parts to play nice its unlikely to work from range.  We are better off when those pop up 72 hours out.  The fact that NONE have is a testament to how good the models are that they havent teased us with fake short range threats all year.  They realize by 5 days in that the setup is wrong.  

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last night you asked a very fair question...and I gave an answer but just now I realized the best way to explain why I am still tracking.  That post I just made this morning...I enjoyed doing that.  I enjoyed looking at the overnight runs and seeing what they snow and analyzing what it might mean...thinking of all the analogs to this and how such a setup should play out...then considering what it might mean for us.  I enjoyed typing up my analysis of the situation and now I enjoy discussing it with you all and getting feedback.  I also enjoy learning...this is one more situation to add to my catalog of personal analog experience.  One more data source to add to my experience and help me in the future.  In short I am enjoying this RIGHT NOW.  Whether it snows next week or not has NOTHING to do with my enjoyment of this at this moment.  Of course I want it to snow next week and that would make it all the more sweet...but I am still enjoying this right now at this moment either way.  I am a pure weather junkie...its why I will watch a storm that isn't even affecting me directly and marvel at it.  I know that makes me crazy and weird but it's who I am and I am not fighting it.  Hope that helps explain it.  And again I in no way blame you for checking out.  I totally understand it and your reaction is probably way more rational then mine.  Just explaining why I don't check out no matter what the results IMBY are.  

ETA:  the only reason I don't do the same with severe or tropical is I am just not any good at it. I follow.  I lurk here during the summer.  And I track severe and tropical.  But I can't do with those what I do with winter tracking.  

I enjoy your posts..Same with showmethesnow, Robert Chill, Cape, et al.  And I appreciate your honest answer and I get it.   But for me, I tie the chase with the actually potential and likelihood of results.  Some don't.  And that's fair.   I mean, like you, I love weather (and especially winter weather) too.  Why else would I work hard to put this place together some 15 years ago to seek and find other crazy people like me who loved weather of all things.     I'm just tired dude.  Beaten.   Next year has to be better...right?

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ji said:

the NAM already took away saturdays snow lol

I was just looking at that because I saw your comment about 6z like 5 minutes ago.  So I decided to go check the 12z NAM for the same time period :lmao::lmao:

57 hours out and **** falls apart and you think a 100+ hour storm will deliver?  This time tho...this time is different!  Right?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I was just looking at that because I saw your comment about 6z like 5 minutes ago.  So I decided to go check the 12z NAM for the same time period :lmao::lmao:

57 hours out and **** falls apart and you think a 100+ hour storm will deliver?  This time tho...this time is different!  Right?

Well, the time is different because it is a different date. That can't be refuted. The results on the other hand...different? Yea, the track of the fail is very different this time so yea it's different on almost all metrics. With one exception...my snow shovel will continue to be covered with dust and cobwebs. That will be identical. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

i'm tracking this event in the same way that i'm about to fill out my march bracket.  if i win, great, if i lose, i might be annoyed for a few minutes and then move on with my life.  

even in the worst busts, give me a day or two and i'm over it.

there's an aspect of tracking storms that's interesting.  i think that's an underrated part of what brings us here.  it's not just the snow or quelling fears of the storm missing on the next run.  i think a lot of us truly do enjoy the analytical part of it.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I enjoy your posts..Same with showmethesnow, Robert Chill, Cape, et al.  And I appreciate your honest answer and I get it.   But for me, I tie the chase with the actually potential and likelihood of results.  Some don't.  And that's fair.   I mean, like you, I love weather (and especially winter weather) too.  Why else would I work hard to put this place together some 15 years ago to seek and find other crazy people like me who loved weather of all things.     I'm just tired dude.  Beaten.   Next year has to be better...right?

Oh I get how you feel.  I am frustrated with our lack of snow...I think I just separate the results from the tracking.  That's all.  I am glad summer is coming through and I will get a break from this.  But I will track to the end...6 months off is enough time off I don't need to shorten the winter tracking season any.

As for next year... odds would favor better results simply because any year we have a chance of better results since this is a bottom 10% winter around the area.  So we have a 90% chance I would say of better results.  But any given year is a new roll of the dice.  There doesn't seem to be much year to year correlation with snowfall.  We have had back to back blockbuster winters and back to back duds many times.  We have also gone back and forth from one to the other at times over the years of records.  Each year is its own entity.  Similarly with the nina.  We want this thing to end.  We aren't guaranteed snow in any pattern but a nina stacks the deck against us the most.  Nothing you don't know.  The odds of 3 nina winters in a row is low but it has happened so we can't rule that out either.  I guess long story short I am optimistic we do better next year but I am not taking that for granted.  Its another roll of the dice.  The bigger risk of a 3rd straight complete dud is that we get a year that is more "normal" for around here...say 9" at DCA and 13-17" at IAD and BWI.  Coming off 2 awful winters that probably won't cut it and will still leave us feeling kind of down.  Maybe I am wrong about that and people will see that as a great result (except Mdecoy of course) given how bad its been lately.  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Maybe I am wrong... I have been plenty before...but take a look at the plots I posted from the overnight runs.  I though the look was fine if not really good actually.  The problem is were talking post March 20th now.  All the stuff I was picking on people for bringing up in Feb and early March is now true.  Were fighting a losing battle with climo now.  Its REALLY hard to get enough cold in front of a system for WAA to work at this point.  It would take a truly arctic airmass.  We just don't have that.  The back side can still work out if we get lucky and something bombs off the the VA capes but that is not something to hang our hat on 5 days out.  But I don't see any major flaw in the h5 setup of the storm, if this was winter I would be thrilled with this look right now.  
This was my point in posts earlier.....we (I95 cities generally speaking) need more than just a trend towards a 'favorable' setup......we need a shift to a darn-near 'perfect' setup now this time of the year and no model even suggests this
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I was just looking at that because I saw your comment about 6z like 5 minutes ago.  So I decided to go check the 12z NAM for the same time period :lmao::lmao:

57 hours out and **** falls apart and you think a 100+ hour storm will deliver?  This time tho...this time is different!  Right?

system 1 being suppressed could be a good sign though...for the next.  We don't want the whole boundary lifting north...we want things squashed as much as possible in general...whatever happens with the steps to get there it does seem some amplification on the east coast is going to happen the middle of next week...so I would rather get everything under us and now have the thermals wrecked when that happens.  

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

system 1 being suppressed could be a good sign though...for the next.  We don't want the whole boundary lifting north...we want things squashed as much as possible in general...whatever happens with the steps to get there it does seem some amplification on the east coast is going to happen the middle of next week...so I would rather get everything under us and now have the thermals wrecked when that happens.  

Exactly. When next week looked good the Saturday thing was squashed all the way to south Carolina.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

system 1 being suppressed could be a good sign though...for the next.  We don't want the whole boundary lifting north...we want things squashed as much as possible in general...whatever happens with the steps to get there it does seem some amplification on the east coast is going to happen the middle of next week...so I would rather get everything under us and now have the thermals wrecked when that happens.  

I think I agree with you on this one. First system that brought some light snow into SW VA on the Saturday before the Tuesday storm was progged to have potential for Northern VA into MD the same time the 2nd system was progged as amped & not suppressed

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