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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And Ji shots for 0 and 4 in storm threads for the winter. Or is that 0 for 5?

Kind of makes we wonder. Should we be blaming La Nina for this crappy winter? Or should we be looking elsewhere? :o

Supeprnovasky + Ji + me. All you need for an extreme DC snow shield. 

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Ji

Ji

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Posted
And Ji shots for 0 and 4 in storm threads for the winter. Or is that 0 for 5?
Kind of makes we wonder. Should we be blaming La Nina for this crappy winter? Or should we be looking elsewhere? 
Please show me where I've started 4 storm threads lol
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Mordecai

Mordecai

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ji said:
19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
And Ji shots for 0 and 4 in storm threads for the winter. Or is that 0 for 5?
Kind of makes we wonder. Should we be blaming La Nina for this crappy winter? Or should we be looking elsewhere? emoji33.png

Please show me where I've started 4 storm threads lol

 

I could go on but we'd be here all day

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guys guys guys!

Day 8!!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png

giphy.gif

Spare....me.....

May as well go for broke...lol I mean we have absolutely nothing to lose. I'm staying in just because....it may strengthen my resolve for future winters, lol Besides, haven't we run out of ways to fail at this point?? (I shudder to say that in fear that we would fail by way of p-type...seeing as that's the only kind of fail we HAVEN'T had this year). I still hold onto a sliver of hope...(now if this starts to gain momentum by Friday I'll be no good, lol)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guys guys guys!

Day 8!!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png

giphy.gif

That was one of the gifs I had ready but didn't use on my rant. Lol 

and the models are trolling us again. Damnit if the EPS and gefs don't actually have a legit signal for a storm. Ugh. I thought I would get at least a day off. But I guess the boots go right back on and hunt is on again. 

To the end....

IMG_4679.JPG.be2c9c596679952a40ea0afee948b6e9.JPG

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

That was one of the gifs I had ready but didn't use on my rant. Lol 

and the models are trolling us again. Damnit if the EPS and gefs don't actually have a legit signal for a storm. Ugh. I thought I would get at least a day off. But I guess the boots go right back on and hunt is on again. 

To the end....

Drago said that to Rocky.  He lost too.  I’m in however.  I will track until I cannot.  

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
Posted

Just beyond the skill range of operational models but New England looks to score again later this month; will we or at least our northern neighbors score too? 

CMC fill in the DC snow hole beginning next Monday evening

The GFS tries too next Tuesday but falls several shovels short.  

Euro likes that period too but rain for us and snow for southern New England.  It drives a primary into western PA and then crushes southern New England with a coastal. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That was one of the gifs I had ready but didn't use on my rant. Lol 

and the models are trolling us again. Damnit if the EPS and gefs don't actually have a legit signal for a storm. Ugh. I thought I would get at least a day off. But I guess the boots go right back on and hunt is on again. 

To the end....

IMG_4679.JPG.be2c9c596679952a40ea0afee948b6e9.JPG

Straight back into the traces tracking. WE are NOT done yet with snow this winter.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

There has been talk over the last few days about the possibilities around what is now day 8. Well the overnight Euro Op and EPS are game. GEFS shows the possibilities but it is not quite there.

Now below is day 7 on the EPS leading into our possible storm. It is actually a pretty sweet setup for an east coast storm. Blocking in Greenland with a 50/50 planted in a prime spot and a shortwave (positive tilt) pulling out of the central US. Now what makes this setup even sweeter is the fact that we are seeing a break down of the blocking occurring allowing the 50/50 to pull out to the north and east as the shortwave starts pulling through the east. As many know this breakdown is often associated with our bigger east coast storms as it allows the shortwave to amplify and go negative tilt just off the coast pulling what would most likely be a rapidly deepening low up the benchmark track. We see this at three days and there will be a lot of people woofing.

epsday7500mb.gif.1d70252b69083e9751fe217ee494a625.gif

Now the GEFS is close but not quite there yet. Compared to the above EPS we see stronger blocking over Greenland which is effectively shoving our 50/50 farther south and west. What this does to the shortwave pulling out of the central US is to weaken it and suppress it farther to the south if it doesn't kill it off altogether. Now with this setup it could still possibly work if we see the GEFS breaking down the blocking at this time as the EPS. But it isn't, it stays strong and this setup would just be another fail on a long list of fails. 

gefsday7500mb.gif.b5e3ffba94bdd89d052f74098b17a150.gif

Now seeing as we can't seem to get snow in reality I thought I would throw up a couple of snow maps to fantasize over for at least the next 6-12 hours. So enjoy.

Below is the Euro op for through day 9 at 10 to 1 ratio.

euroopday8-9.gif.5939ead761c57dcb2176cf87a08d22d8.gif

EPS control run.

controlday8-9.thumb.gif.c69f361ebc68cc9f1760176bf08b08c0.gif

Euro op with Kuchera. Notice we see a decent increase over the 10 to 1 map. Not going to look in-depth on the temp profile but going just by the snowmaps it seems that the Euro sees a cold storm with this one.

euroopkucheraday8-9.gif.542a24bfa02f688b5b08f055e19b1806.gif

 

Now at this point the ensemble members on the EPS do show some hits but I wouldn't say it is in your face and in fact it is somewhat underwhelming when you consider the overall look at 500's. Hopefully we see those increase over the coming days. The GEFS? Let's just say it is hinting at the possibility.

***Just saw that C.A.P.E posted a snowfall map. Sorry for the double posting.

 

 

 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ji u r a miracle worker possibly. Long way out but since u started this thread all 3 major ens families have jumped on board showing surface LP nearby on the means. That's generally a good sign at this range. Bring this one home!

 

 

You have lost your ****ing mind. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Screw you Euro and 6z GFS at 174.  Come on guys.  i should delete this thread. 

 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You have lost your ****ing mind. 

 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Psu, repost all of the snow maps from every storm that looked good from 180 to 96 hours out this winter.  

If you are going to have a hissy fit then take it to banter. :D

On a serious not. I'll throw up all the snow maps. But it would take me half a day at least so I would expect some recomp. $100 or Mod and banning privileges until our day 8 storm is past either would do nicely.

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