I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We really have no idea how the confluence is going to work in 4 days. My guess is it ends up flatter/weaker/shearder that what we're seeing in the mid range. Just my gut call with no analysis to back it up

Yea the fact I am still watching means I haven't totally given up on this.  But I never thought this was going to be our "big snow" and even if I do agree that this is likely to trend less amplified coming in and thus might track under us that still doesn't mean I think we get a snow.  History this year suggests that if it does trend south and suppressed then it might also trend dry and squashed completely.  That makes sense because if this is AGAIN mostly northern stream dominant, and the northern stream gets squashed....there wont be much left to work with coming in.  We could end up with another squashed late phaser like the last few.  So many ways to fail.  But I am not sold that a system running up to our NW is the end result yet.  I reserve the right to leave other fail options on the table. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's an op run at day 5/6. It's close to being in the wheel house of what we need as far as track, transfer and strengthening. I am not sure what more you could ask for. If the ensembles follow the leader like they are prone to do there is a good chance we see some very good solutions pop out.

It's close for us...I would argue its still not very close to what DC and the majority of this forum reading this need.  But your point about it being a day 6 op is correct I am not writing anything off.  I just doubt we get much snow.  We could.  I am forever the optimist.  But like I just said to Bob even if this gets suppressed under us then we have to worry that it gets squashed too much.  There are so many ways to fail and the time of year only makes that worse I am not optimistic thats all.  But I doubt any single run is going to nail the final result and hold it from this range. 

[Jandurin]

we literally can't do worse than we've already done the rest of winter

[WinterWxLuvr]

Over amped/north morphing to suppressed/south has been a dominant theme, right?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Jandurin said:

we literally can't do worse than we've already done the rest of winter

We can barely do worse in July than we have this winter.

[Cobalt]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Over amped/north morphing to suppressed/south has been a dominant theme, right?

Probably. May be an extreme example, but the Dec 30th storm went from a lakes cutter to a HECS for (for like 3 runs) to a non-existent storm

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close for us...I would argue its still not very close to what DC and the majority of this forum reading this need.  But your point about it being a day 6 op is correct I am not writing anything off.  I just doubt we get much snow.  We could.  I am forever the optimist.  But like I just said to Bob even if this gets suppressed under us then we have to worry that it gets squashed too much.  There are so many ways to fail and the time of year only makes that worse I am not optimistic thats all.  But I doubt any single run is going to nail the final result and hold it from this range. 

I am not so worried about suppression. Far from it actually. The confluence to the north will drive it only so far south (which is a good thing, hopefully to get it underneath us initially) before the departing low gives it an avenue to drive north. Hopefully right up the coast. I though we saw some good improvements exactly where we needed to see them. Doesn't mean we don't ultimately fail. Just means I thought our chances may have improved.

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

 

The snow hole will continue, says the snow gods 

[BristowWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t know...I can dream up a variety of scenarios where winter’s knife of despair hits another sweet spot. 

we are zombies now.  only a full shot gun blast to the head can totally destroy us. This pain is coming to an end.

[Jandurin]

i just mean with this upcoming storm, not with winter in general!

i'd be happy with rain really, i just really hope we get precipitation again

 

@WxWatcher007

[clskinsfan]

I posted over in the long range thread but will post it here since no one goes in there anymore :). That little wave on Saturday needs to be watched. There will be some entrenched cold air east of the mountains and some ice isnt out of the question.

[yoda]

12z UKIE looks ugly... 992mb SLP at 144 in SE OH/NW WV

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

we are zombies now.  only a full shot gun blast to the head can totally destroy us. This pain is coming to an end.

I'm honestly kind of ready to track some severe weather and supercells!

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

 

The snow hole will continue, says the snow gods 

That looks right lol

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE looks ugly... 992mb SLP at 144 in SE OH/NW WV

Good so when it shifts 250 miles south next run we will be good. 

[H2O]

 

[attml]

I'm all in!!!  Please note the normal snow hole bubble around the viewing area!  This thing can't fail :-)

 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

lol these maps are so funny.

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, wkd said:

Iceman, thanks for posting Tip's thoughts. He seems to be a very knowledgeable met but I swear my head hurts after reading his posts.

 

Sorry, wrong subforum

Then just delete your post.

Options > Delete > OK

[mattie g]

All I care about is tracking warmth at this point. I just walked a few blocks between meetings, and realized (again) that the wind and cold at this point in the year is miserable.

[RevWarReenactor]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

All I care about is tracking warmth at this point. I just walked a few blocks between meetings, and realized (again) that the wind and cold at this point in the year is miserable.

So true, mid March and its so damn cold. Its like rubbing salt in the wound. Just end it already!

[psuhoffman]

Big signal march 24th. It's not over!!!!  

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm actually glad that it's cold; it delays and shortens the mowing season by a couple of weeks.  I just wish this ****ing wind would stop.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Big signal march 24th. It's not over!!!! 

And only 10 days away!

Start a thread!

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Big signal march 24th. It's not over!!!!  

Like clockwork

Maybe it'll delay a day and help extend the March 25th coincidence. 3 times in 6 years in late March on the same day seems anomalous enough

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, attml said:

I'm all in!!!  Please note the normal snow hole bubble around the viewing area!  This thing can't fail :-)

 

Can we please stop posting these?? Sweet mercy that's true masochism!!!

[yoda]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Big signal march 24th. It's not over!!!!  

So as Ji would say, we are back at Day 10 again -- though it looks more like a signal for N and W of I95

[Amped]

EUro looks ugly too, 850 temps  warmer than yesterday at 144 across the entire NE 3rd of the country.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

EUro looks ugly too, 850 temps  warmer than yesterday at 144 across the entire NE 3rd of the country.

The changes this run compared to 12z yesterday in canada are pretty drastic...what happened to all that ridging?

[Amped]

Just now, LP08 said:

The changes this run compared to 12z yesterday in canada are pretty drastic...what happened to all that ridging?

It lost the EPO ridge over Alaska. This allowed a pretty big warm intrusion over the GL.  Any cold is hanging on for dear life across NRN Maine. Unless it comes back we aren't seeing a flake out of that. Onto the next 240 storm.