I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy is a key word.  Enjoy.  Do you enjoy tracking something and it dies every time, four times in a row?  Ok then.  You have a odd sense of enjoyment if you do.  But I get it.  Me, I enjoy the first time, maybe the second time...start to get weary after the third time but I'm hanging on.   But fool me FOUR times? 

Like I said...I don't blame anyone for tuning out.  If you are emotionally invested in the final results I would probably say its a smart decision.  Every year is different.  In a year with a favorable pacific pattern and blocking...we can have a pretty high score rate and then tracking long range is fine even if you get upset when it fails...odds favor a decent hit rate.  But in a nina our batting average is going to be low.  Of course we hope to at least bat .200 and then if we can get 10 or so "threats" at range we can still eek out a couple hits and get to at least 50% of climo region wide.  This year we are batting LOW...depending on what you consider a "hit" and where you are either we are batting about .100 or 0 (those in the northwest).  I would consider December 9th a hit for most of us, the Winchester area not included of course.  But in a Nina tracking is not for those that need the payout.  Its always going to be frustrating.  The models, for whatever reason, dont resolve the inherent flaws for our location until closer, and so from range will shotgun some pretty good looking storms into the mix of solutions.  Then as we get close those disappear as the warts show themselves and most morph into miller b or coastal scrapers or suppressed events.  Thats nina climo. This year was just worse then even most nina's in that we got a pretty decent pattern much of the year and so had even more threats then usually and they ALL fails instead of just most.  Some of that is just bad luck stacked on top of a flawed pattern.  (even flawed patters have to result in snow sometimes or else we would average 5" a year). 

[osfan24]

Tracking now for me is a lot less painful than it was. It's the middle of March, it's been an awful season, so I take any model runs showing snow with a grain of salt. If we actually go get snow, awesome. If we don't, oh well, I'll just laugh at the ways we invent to miss it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Posting the phrase "snow TV" should equal a one year ban from the board.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Jandurin said:

not dead

it's still possible but we've lost our snowmaps

 

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker

Because I know how much you care....

We lost the ICON...the only model that still supported snow at 0z.  But I am sure the GFS or GGEM or euro will save us.  And if not then the ensembles will.  And if now its still 6 days away so lost of time for it to change.  And if not.....  NEXT

[Amped]

Back to a more southern track this run.

[yoda]

This run looks a lil bit better... SLP position is south of 06z at 126

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

Yeah coming in less amped, slightly stronger HP 

[yoda]

06z at 138 had 998mb SLP in south central IN... 12z at 132 is in KY

[87storms]

significantly south and it hasn't closed off yet like it did at 6z.

[yoda]

Transfer starting at 138... primary SLP is in E KY at 1000mb

[87storms]

could be a generally weaker run, but colder...i think.

[psuhoffman]

Ehh it only jumped the low from north of St Louis to along the TN/KY border in one run.  LOL

In seriousness though that's well within the normal error of a 120 hour prog. 

[yoda]

Transfer is being completed over southern portion of Delmarva at 144

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

This run looks a lil bit better... SLP position is south of 06z at 126

It's better then the last 2 gfs runs but its still north of the runs that produced snow so we will see....

[yoda]

992mb SLP just ESE of ACY at 150

[87storms]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh it only jumped the low from north of St Louis to along the TN/KY border in one run.  LOL

In seriousness though that's well within the normal error of a 120 hour prog. 

it kinda looks more believable when you consider the highs to the north.  i was sorta surprised it cut last run.  still a bit north, but further south than last run.

[psuhoffman]

nope its still a fail... it comes in south of the last gfs run but still well north of the runs that ended with snow yesterday, and again there is too much ridging in front for something coming from the west like that.  It's closer...I guess...or it might just be noise at that range but its not exactly what I wanted to see to feel good.  Well...nothing I could see at this range would make me feel good...but better I guess.  It stopped the bleeding I suppose but only a minor improvement in the ways that we need. 

[yoda]

Still no snow in LWX CWA... but its the same as you head up I95 to BOS with teh no snow

[Amped]

Torches us anyway, another "Nice Try" storm.  Sound familiar?

[Scraff]

At least it’s a storm. A rain storm. 

[Jandurin]

the euro will save us

it'll show it snowing in richmond

 

sure, the hours between 108 and 156 are missing but maybe it worked!

[psuhoffman]

ggem aint gonna make anyone feel better

[Amped]

It ended up north of 6z,  looks like it phased at the last second.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

At least it’s a storm. A rain storm. 

Stormy will be so pleased

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

It ended up north of 6z,  looks like it phased at the last second.

It ended up more amped and west but never got north...and at our longitude where it matters for us it was south...but it was only about half of the jump south we would need.  It does get the system under us...technically but it still has too much ridging in front and drives the thermal boundary way north of us before the jump so its too little too late. 

[Amped]

If we had a 1040mb High over VT and 850 0 line down to NC ahead of the storm we would have been fine.  I hate March.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

ggem aint gonna make anyone feel better

We really have no idea how the confluence is going to work in 4 days. My guess is it ends up flatter/weaker/shearder that what we're seeing in the mid range. Just my gut call with no analysis to back it up

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

It ended up north of 6z,  looks like it phased at the last second.

this look is a little concerning...but if the whole system can track further south it may not be as impacted by that last second energy diving out of canada.  i like the look for a storm at least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031412&fh=156

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

nope its still a fail... it comes in south of the last gfs run but still well north of the runs that ended with snow yesterday, and again there is too much ridging in front for something coming from the west like that.  It's closer...I guess...or it might just be noise at that range but its not exactly what I wanted to see to feel good.  Well...nothing I could see at this range would make me feel good...but better I guess.  It stopped the bleeding I suppose but only a minor improvement in the ways that we need. 

It's an op run at day 5/6. It's close to being in the wheel house of what we need as far as track, transfer and strengthening. I am not sure what more you could ask for. If the ensembles follow the leader like they are prone to do there is a good chance we see some very good solutions pop out.