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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

If someone is a weenie and loves snow, its pretty much impossible to tune out long range tracking and say to yourself "it isn't going to happen". Obviously late March stuff is a bit different; but just in general, how can someone who is looking forward to winter snowfall simply not check the LR thread and get at least partially invested in digital snow? Of course there is usually more of a payoff, this has ranked as one of the top winters for tracking fail. Its usually not THIS bad.

Because if you pay any attention you know that even in a good year 60-70% of threats at day 10 will fail. And in many years 90% will. So if you know that reality and you still get emotionally invested to the point of getting hurt and upset if it doesn't come true when you know it's 80-90% likely not to happen then maybe you don't have the right emotional maturity or realistic assessment of the situation to handle this.  So either come to grips that most threats will fail and be ok with it or move on so you stop torturing yourself. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If the blocking plays out the way the models have it shown now then yes. Doesn't mean a big block buster storm though. Just means the odds are better.

We need the block and the 50-50 to still be present and in decent position though. Just looking at the the Euro op over the past 3 runs, it has trended towards breaking down the block and allowing the 50-50 low to escape north too quickly. Last nights run its completely gone and we have positive h5 heights in the 50-50 region with the storm approaching. If that plays out this storm is going to track too far north.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We need the block and the 50-50 to still be present and in decent position though. Just looking at the the Euro op over the past 3 runs, it has trended towards breaking down the block and allowing the 50-50 low to escape north too quickly. Last nights run its completely gone and we have positive h5 heights in the 50-50 region with the storm approaching. If that plays out this storm is going to track too far north.

I agree, that is a very real possibility. EPS has also sped this breakdown somewhat as well. Kind of why I have been focusing on up there instead of with the shortwave. We lose that and it probably doesn't matter what we see in regards to the shortwave because that will probably end up around the lakes. But for now, what the ensembles show will work and until they totally lose this I will continue tracking.

eta: Just looked at the overnight Euro op. Pretty poor continuity from the 12Z. Think we are better off following the ensembles for the time being. Not sure what the GFS shows but would not be surprised if the ensembles were preferred there as well.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree, that is a very real possibility. EPS has also sped this breakdown somewhat as well. Kind of why I have been focusing on up there instead of with the shortwave. We lose that and it probably doesn't matter what we see in regards to the shortwave because that will probably end up around the lakes. But for now, what the ensembles show will work and until they totally lose this I will continue tracking.

I will keep an eye on it too, but this weekend I will be outside putting down fertilizer and pre-emergent, cleaning leaves out of the beds, and nuking dandelions before they get too comfy in the warmer days ahead,

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I will keep an eye on it too, but this weekend I will be outside putting down fertilizer and pre-emergent, cleaning leaves out of the beds, and nuking dandelions before they get too comfy in the warmer days ahead,

I am in the early stages of getting prepared for camping season. Getting things together and will probably go up next week and to clean out the site and air out the trailer. Getting psyched. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

Lol. Dummies. Sorry, I’m not going to be easy. You all are like family. I love you, but you need tough love.  You do the same **** and expect different results this winter.  The sooner you do like I did earlier this week and get off the ride, the better you’ll feel.   Move on. Hope for warmth and save your sanity.  It’s over for us and has been since December 1.   

But Ill bet some of you won’t learn. Especially if the models have a 200 hour storm.   It’s the one this time!  No really.  It has the look!!

lol

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Out of all 3 ens means not a single one really tracks the 500mb anomaly under either of our regions. That isnt a very strong signal for a late March SECS. Need to see some rather significant SD anomalies over say VA/NC border area give or take to even be excited at this range. Very rarely does guidance trend the other way. It could, but unlikely imo. 47fe87b3a693a77d359b4225bc2bf3a0.jpg8a2b6548aceeee74b351b9858e2a467d.jpg6b8d2631f4bca01fb1406365418c4c8c.jpg

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tell me what a bomb cyclone looks like

This is what a bomb cyclone looks like

 

Too bad I have to travel to see it.

Yasss. That was THE BOMB.

For me its only an hour to Rehoboth, and I go there usually 5 times a winter anyway, so easy traveling. Love it there. Not so much in summer though. Too hot and way too crowded.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@showmethesnow

Great write up as usual. I'm not as optimistic though. Im not already on a life raft like JI but I do think this took a very negative turn last night and here is why. 

The gfs and euro yesterday disagreed on two things. Both the situations upstream and down. The euro was relaxing the blocking and 50/50 faster. But what made that work was it had much less ridging to our west and thus a system coming across at us from a much further south location.  See yesterday's EPS belowIMG_4687.thumb.PNG.a3defb7364afecf9981743e4d308d4c9.PNG

The further south location was ok because with the 50/50 moving out the system could amplify more and come up.  

Now the gfs yesterday was also a snow setup but for a more moderate or light event.  It had more ridging to our west and a system coming at us from a much further north trajectory.  But what made that work was the gfs was holding the 50/50 in and thus suppressing the wave and forcing it to travel straight east and even ESE to get under us.  Of course with that look we were likely looking at only a moderate event  as major amplification was unlikely but in march with the baroclinicity and less space needed we could have had a nice west to east thump event.  

Now unfortunately the changes we saw overnight are the wrong combo.  The euro won the setup to our northeast.  The 50/50 is relaxing on all guidance now.  Yes that allows amplification.  However the gfs won the upstream setup and ridging to our west and the EPS now shifted way north with the incoming system.  See below 

IMG_4686.thumb.PNG.8a77b82f8e9c11c68cc1bbcd86c4759f.PNG

Unfortunately the only way that trajectory worked was with the gfs suppression idea and the gfs gave up on that.  So now we're left with a system coming across west to east at a latitude too far north and without the suppression needed to force it under us.  

Obviously I wanted the euro to win with both situations and get something coming from the southwest of us with room to amplify.  Could the situation from the west change?  Sure.  But honestly this hasn't been a year where things shifted away day 6/7 then came back.  All year as our "pretty good" looks entered the day 5-7 range some wart inherent in this Nina pattern has shown.  And that wart has typically then stayed and been the death of our snow threat.  That's a testament to the guidance imo that they have pulled the rug around day 5-7 mostly and not closer in.  IF this further north trajectory across the Conus locks in today I think we are seeing the writing on the wall for another fail.  

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lol. Dummies. Sorry, I’m not going to be easy. You all are like family. I love you, but you need tough love.  You do the same **** and expect different results this winter.  The sooner you do like I did earlier this week and get off the ride, the better you’ll feel.   Move on. Hope for warmth and save your sanity.  It’s over for us and has been since December 1.   

But Ill bet some of you won’t learn. Especially if the models have a 200 hour storm.   It’s the one this time!  No really.  It has the look!!

lol

What about those of us that enjoy tracking whether it snows or not?  It's like a few years back when my school staff formed an indoor league soccer team. We were awful. I was the only player with any real experience. We had no chance to ever win a game. But I still had fun playing. Yea it would have been more run to win once in a while but I still showed up for every game.  

I agree those that keep getting upset are in some kind of denial but some here I think are like me and simply love tracking storms. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow

Great write up as usual. I'm not as optimistic though. Im not already on a life raft like JI but I do think this took a very negative turn last night and here is why. 

The gfs and euro yesterday disagreed on two things. Both the situations upstream and down. The euro was relaxing the blocking and 50/50 faster. But what made that work was it had much less ridging to our west and thus a system coming across at us from a much further south location.  See yesterday's EPS below

The further south location was ok because with the 50/50 moving out the system could amplify more and come up.  

Now the gfs yesterday was also a snow setup but for a more moderate or light event.  It had more ridging to our west and a system coming at us from a much further north trajectory.  But what made that work was the gfs was holding the 50/50 in and thus suppressing the wave and forcing it to travel straight east and even ESE to get under us.  Of course with that look we were likely looking at only a moderate event  as major amplification was unlikely but in march with the baroclinicity and less space needed we could have had a nice west to east thump event.  

Now unfortunately the changes we saw overnight are the wrong combo.  The euro won the setup to our northeast.  The 50/50 is relaxing on all guidance now.  Yes that allows amplification.  However the gfs won the upstream setup and ridging to our west and the EPS now shifted way north with the incoming system.  See below 

 

Unfortunately the only way that trajectory worked was with the gfs suppression idea and the gfs gave up on that.  So now we're left with a system coming across west to east at a latitude too far north and without the suppression needed to force it under us.  

Obviously I wanted the euro to win with both situations and get something coming from the southwest of us with room to amplify.  Could the situation from the west change?  Sure.  But honestly this hasn't been a year where things shifted away day 6/7 then came back.  All year as our "pretty good" looks entered the day 5-7 range some wart inherent in this Nina pattern has shown.  And that wart has typically then stayed and been the death of our snow threat.  That's a testament to the guidance imo that they have pulled the rug around day 5-7 mostly and not closer in.  IF this further north trajectory across the Conus locks in today I think we are seeing the writing on the wall for another fail.  

 

It's not that I am optimistic, nor pessimistic for that matter, it's just that I am along for the ride to see where the models take us. I love tracking after all so I will get enjoyment whether we win or Fail. As of the 00Z runs we are still very much in the game so I wouldn't write this off quite yet. But there has obviously been a move to be more progressive in the break down of the blocking which is a major concern for our snow chances. See that continue and we most likely fail because that is what is driving the pattern and its evolution through our region.

___________________

I did notice the ridging in the west. Not sure I am overly concerned with it at this point. Some of that ridging will be influenced by the low off the Cali coast but some will also be influenced by what we see with the shortwave as it drops down out of Canada and that shortwave will in turn be influenced by what we see in the 50/50 and -Nao region. So where the blocking and 50/50 go I think we see the shortwave and western ridging follow along somewhat. So until up top is settled I think upstream is still very much in question.

At this time the smart money would be on a Fail for our region (that is where I would place my bet). But as of now the ensembles say we are still in the game so this is still worth tracking. 12Z will be interesting to see if both the GEFS and the EPS continue to speed up the break down of the blocking. Not a good sign if that is the case. But if instead we see them move towards a compromise between both their 00Z solutions then I would hope we would see some good solutions popping up on the members as that compromise would put our region in a very good setup.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

We just need the stj and Atlantic to be on our sides next year.  All these tracks seem to be following that typical La Niña either too far north or too far south with limited gom influence.  Very miller b’ish.  Need some further south tracking lows, not ones coming out of the plains Beelining for the SE coast, or just missing to our north altogether. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What about those of us that enjoy tracking whether it snows or not?  It's like a few years back when my school staff formed an indoor league soccer team. We were awful. I was the only player with any real experience. We had no chance to ever win a game. But I still had fun playing. Yea it would have been more run to win once in a while but I still showed up for every game.  

I agree those that keep getting upset are in some kind of denial but some here I think are like me and simply love tracking storms. 

Enjoy is a key word.  Enjoy.  Do you enjoy tracking something and it dies every time, four times in a row?  Ok then.  You have a odd sense of enjoyment if you do.  But I get it.  Me, I enjoy the first time, maybe the second time...start to get weary after the third time but I'm hanging on.   But fool me FOUR times? 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

Looking at the gfs it doesn’t look impossible for the storm to take a more southerly track if we can get a better 50/50 low and/or deeper high coming out of Canada.  I didn’t see the euro but maybe it’s worth it to casually track this for another day or two.

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