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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

In regards to our potential day 6/7 storm I have pretty much been focusing on what we are seeing in regards to our blocking and 50/50. Not that I am dismissing the shortwave/energy dropping down out of Canada but that feature will change and possibly quite significantly over the coming days. And some of that change can probably be attributed to what is happening downstream with our blocking. So for now I will concentrate on the -NAO and the 50/50, which will make or break this setup for our region. Get me within 3 days with a favorable setup over-top then I will begin worrying about our shortwave.

Looking over the 00Z runs for our day 6/7 storm and the GEFS is now in the camp of the EPS as far as the -NAO and 50/50. It is now breaking down the blocking over Greenland allowing the 50/50 to rotate out. The importance of this is it increases the odds for a bigger storm impacting somewhere on the East coast/western Atlantic as the shortwave is allowed to amplify and pull northward as the 50/50 rotates out. If the general idea is correct then the question becomes the timing between the shortwave and the breakdown. And the GEFS and the EPS are of differing opinions on that. 

If we see that breakdown occur later in the process then we see the primary track farther south as the blocking over top holds strong and does not allow it to gain much latitude. We see this on the GEFS where the primary runs to western Kentucky before transferring off of OBX. OBX is a good spot but the later departing 50/50 does not allow this to amplify and move northward until farther OTS thus not impacting our region. Snows (temps cooperating) from this would be basically WAA induced as the system moves into Kentucky where we then have to worry about the transfer off the coast quickly shutting that down. Favored areas in this scenario would probably be for the western portions of our region as eastern could potentially suffer from the transfer.

The EPS on the other hand breaks the blocking down quicker. This allows the primary to gain latitude on its movement eastward as the blocking over top of it relaxes. Thus we see the primary farther north running into WVA before we see a transfer to just east of the mouth of the bay. Once there we will see this most likely amplify and move up the coast. Our big storm scenario. Unfortunately the break down in the blocking may be a touch to quick as the evolution of the storm is probably a little too far north for our tastes. Due to this northward progression temps would potentially be a concern both during the potential WAA snows as well as during the intensifying lows trip up the coast. Favored areas would once again be to the west and potential big winners could be to the north and west of Baltimore/DC as they possibly benefit from both WAA and CCB snows. But even there they could run into issues with temps.

I actually like where we stand at this point. Both scenarios probably get snow into portions of our region, possibly somewhat significant snows at that. Now give me a compromise (leaning more towards the EPS preferably) between these two solutions and I think many in this forum would be quite happy.

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, dtk said:

Sref as we know it is in the process of being phased out with something radically different.  It's going to take a couple of years, but folks are working in the direction of a convection allowing ensemble (think hrrr, nam3k, ncar ensemble).  

Sounds interesting thanks

30 minutes ago, H2O said:

you all got suckered in again

There were only a few that thought this would happen. The rest of us just like to track even if we know it will fail 90% of the time. I expect every threat to fail so it doesn't get to me. The only one that hurt some was last week when a good snow got pulled out from under me at the very last second. I had allowed myself to believe so that one hurt. These long range threats don't bother me ever. But for those that get invested in long range threats perhaps tracking long range isn't a good idea. 

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rcflyermd68

rcflyermd68

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

In regards to our potential day 6/7 storm I have pretty much been focusing on what we are seeing in regards to our blocking and 50/50. Not that I am dismissing the shortwave/energy dropping down out of Canada but that feature will change and possibly quite significantly over the coming days. And some of that change can probably be attributed to what is happening downstream with our blocking. So for now I will concentrate on the -NAO and the 50/50, which will make or break this setup for our region. Get me within 3 days with a favorable setup over-top then I will begin worrying about our shortwave.

Looking over the 00Z runs for our day 6/7 storm and the GEFS is now in the camp of the EPS as far as the -NAO and 50/50. It is now breaking down the blocking over Greenland allowing the 50/50 to rotate out. The importance of this is it increases the odds for a bigger storm impacting somewhere on the East coast/western Atlantic as the shortwave is allowed to amplify and pull northward as the 50/50 rotates out. If the general idea is correct then the question becomes the timing between the shortwave and the breakdown. And the GEFS and the EPS are of differing opinions on that. 

If we see that breakdown occur later in the process then we see the primary track farther south as the blocking over top holds strong and does not allow it to gain much latitude. We see this on the GEFS where the primary runs to western Kentucky before transferring off of OBX. OBX is a good spot but the later departing 50/50 does not allow this to amplify and move northward until farther OTS thus not impacting our region. Snows (temps cooperating) from this would be basically WAA induced as the system moves into Kentucky where we then have to worry about the transfer off the coast quickly shutting that down. Favored areas in this scenario would probably be for the western portions of our region as eastern could potentially suffer from the transfer.

The EPS on the other hand breaks the blocking down quicker. This allows the primary to gain latitude on its movement eastward as the blocking over top of it relaxes. Thus we see the primary farther north running into WVA before we see a transfer to just east of the mouth of the bay. Once there we will see this most likely amplify and move up the coast. Our big storm scenario. Unfortunately the break down in the blocking may be a touch to quick as the evolution of the storm is probably a little too far north for our tastes. Due to this northward progression temps would potentially be a concern both during the potential WAA snows as well as during the intensifying lows trip up the coast. Favored areas would once again be to the west and potential big winners could be to the north and west of Baltimore/DC as they possibly benefit from both WAA and CCB snows. But even there they could run into issues with temps.

I actually like where we stand at this point. Both scenarios probably get snow into portions of our region, possibly somewhat significant snows at that. Now give me a compromise (leaning more towards the EPS preferably) between these two solutions and I think many in this forum would be quite happy.

 

your analysis is the archambault scenario correct??

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sounds interesting thanks

There were only a few that thought this would happen. The rest of us just like to track even if we know it will fail 90% of the time. I expect every threat to fail so it doesn't get to me. The only one that hurt some was last week when a good snow got pulled out from under me at the very last second. I had allowed myself to believe so that one hurt. These long range threats don't bother me ever. But for those that get invested in long range threats perhaps tracking long range isn't a good idea. 

If someone is a weenie and loves snow, its pretty much impossible to tune out long range tracking and say to yourself "it isn't going to happen". Obviously late March stuff is a bit different; but just in general, how can someone who is looking forward to winter snowfall simply not check the LR thread and get at least partially invested in digital snow? Of course there is usually more of a payoff, this has ranked as one of the top winters for tracking fail. Its usually not THIS bad.

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rcflyermd68

rcflyermd68

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If the blocking plays out the way the models have it shown now then yes. Doesn't mean a big block buster storm though. Just means the odds are better.

thanks for your answer, you analysis was very well done, i read her thesis , as much as I could, very interesting

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