I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I’d sign for this now, we’d at least get a changeover and some accumulation. 

[astarck]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, that's crazy. What is the latest date DCA or IAD/BWI have never topped freezing?

Not sure about DCA in particular, but for DC overall I believe it’s March 24, 1906 with a high of 28. April  18, 1875 has a high of 33.

[H2O]

H5 on the NAM after 48hr is just weird to me.  I can see how it broadens out and keeps from getting too sharp which would dig it too far south but is it right?  It seems like its trying to compromise all the pieces instead of making one the main player.  Somehow it works out if you believe the snow maps.  

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

with the first wave, it is a noticeable improvement.  Based on the NAM, PSU would be 10000% less jittery. 

It's great BUT im 15 miles from almost nothing. Wat too sharp a gradient to feel safe. However that gradient almost always creeps north last minute so if it's hanging around the mason Dixon line I feel ok. Not great but ok. 

I'm trying to think of a good way to explain what I was thinking about the 2 wave interaction.  The nam doesn't get it done with wave 2. We do get extended precip though from wave 1 as all the energy keeps the balding along the left behind deform zone going a while. It fails with wave 2 in the end but IF there is a wave 2 it's likely going to spark along that left behind boundary. So any run that parks that over us is a win imo. Keeps the door open to even better solutions. Seeing that shift south or die behind a departing wave is not what I want to see regardless what its doing with wave 2. Wave 2 probably digs further south and cuts off too far under us in that scenario. 

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Am I the only one who got that T August was joking? And my wife calls me dense.

I guess I will be tracking on the go now. The boss... errr... wife has places to be and items to buy. And of course she needs her pack mule to carry it all for her. So wishing all of us luck on the coming runs.

Nope. It never ceases to amaze me that some folks can’t pick up on that kind of stuff.

[87storms]

surface temps are below 40 at onset, so not too awful.  there is a warm nose, but it looked kinda thin.  nam may also be too amped.  looks like upstairs is good for a good portion of wave 2.  it's wave 1 and the first few hours that looks suspect.

[MillvilleWx]

Ferrier at 59 hr

I’m not a huge fan of snow algorithim maps. If I do, I like Kuchera the best, but I’ll use bufkit and historical climo to weight on ratios and expected snowfall. The warm nose on NAM models is concerning for I-95 peeps, but the degraded profile upstairs is a little better to N&W, the typical climo spots. The Ferrier to me has been meh. It totally crapped the bed with the big storm last week. My sister in E PA had 4” from 3k using Ferrier right before the actual storm. She picked up 8 instead. 3k was a solid 3-6” snowfall N&W of cities. NAM was sleety with a more impressive warm nose. The QPF was a positive however, so we’ll see if that can hold on and trends in thermal profile.


.

[Superstorm]

Would be interesting to see verification scores on the snowmap algorithms.



.

[Stormman96]

18 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Kuchera ratios at 21z Tuesday (this panel)

 

Where did you get this map from? The one on bottom doesnt seem right?

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I’m not a huge fan of snow algorithim maps. If I do, I like Kuchera the best, but I’ll use bufkit and historical climo to weight on ratios and expected snowfall. The warm nose on NAM models is concerning for I-95 peeps, but the degraded profile upstairs is a little better to N&W, the typical climo spots. The Ferrier to me has been meh. It totally crapped the bed with the big storm last week. My sister in E PA had 4” from 3k using Ferrier right before the actual storm. She picked up 8 instead. 3k was a solid 3-6” snowfall N&W of cities. NAM was sleety with a more impressive warm nose. The QPF was a positive however, so we’ll see if that can hold on and trends in thermal profile.


.

 

      Here's the thing, though.    The Ferrier computation isn't nearly as much of an algorithm as the Kuchera.    The Ferrier method is using direct microphysics from the model.   The NAM3 here is clearly saying that the snow is heavily rimed and therefore won't accumulate as well.     It's very possible that the model is too warm there around 850 and is therefore showing too much riming; it sounds like it's done that in previous cases.     But it's a fault of the model itself and not the algorithm.  

  

[csnavywx]

Ehh, there's more to hate than love on this run if you want snow.

 

This is after the PBL cools:

This is at the start of precip:

 

 

Thermals get supportive of snow/sleet mix and finally all-snow, but due to the saturation issues around the critical -10C layer, you're talking around 21z Tue-00z Wed before you get into a situation where there are decent pockets of light-mod snow interspersed with freezing drizzle and snow grains.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Stormman96 said:

Where did you get this map from? The one on bottom doesnt seem right?

Pivotal weather, and yeah the kuchera one seems a bit wonky (especially in areas where it should be raining), but it shows the ratio which is probably helpful in areas that are snowing. 

[csnavywx]

The cross section is N-S through DC (with DC in the middle) and the sounding is point-source at DC.

[clskinsfan]

LOL. Ya'll should come out my way. If I get 20 inches I will never b**ch again on this board

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ehh, there's more to hate than love on this run if you want snow.

 

This is after the PBL cools:

This is at the start of precip:

 

 

Thermals get supportive of snow/sleet mix and finally all-snow, but due to the saturation issues around the critical -10C layer, you're talking around 21z Tue-00z Wed before you get into a situation where there are decent pockets of light-mod snow interspersed with freezing drizzle and snow grains.

challenging storm.  i guess on the bright side, we're looking at the nam pretty far out, so hopefully it came in too hot with that lead wave.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The cross section is N-S through DC (with DC in the middle) and the sounding is point-source at DC.

Out of all the good posters here, I read and re-read yours the most. I didn't like the soundings either but I also didn't care much one way or the other. The nam will probably provide brand new high fives and valley lows every six hours. If the euro runs the stripe a bit north from 0z then I'm probaby ready to go all in on at least something acceptable in my yard. Meaning grass coverage at worst and some minor heavy wet shoveling at best. 

[psuhoffman]

3k didn't look close to done at 60. Low is hanging there just ready to be re-energized as the upper levels catch up. I liked that run a lot. 

[aldie 22]

I'm wondering if we can get 2 or 3 more people to come on and tell us how hard it will be for the snow to stick in late March.  I'd like to see at least one more map that looks like an Ellenwood snow guess. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm wondering if we can get 2 or 3 more people to come on and tell us how hard it will be for the snow to stick in late March.  I'd like to see at least one more map that looks like an Ellenwood snow guess. 

Dude, you can expect 10 times that over the next 48 hours. I hope it makes you as happy as it will me  

[87storms]

i'm rooting for clouds tomorrow.

[psuhoffman]

Not liking the trends on the rgem or icon through 48 hours. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm wondering if we can get 2 or 3 more people to come on and tell us how hard it will be for the snow to stick in late March.  I'd like to see at least one more map that looks like an Ellenwood snow guess. 

Today is March 18*

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Today is March 18*

I'm not taking the bait I don't want to be banned during the peak summer obs posting season

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

GFS appears faster and south at 42

[psuhoffman]

Icon looks worse so far. Hopefully gfs takes a positive step. I'm not giving the nam much weight at this range. I have a feeling this either comes together or falls apart today. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

GFS appears faster and south at 42

I'm not getting warm comfy feelings

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

GFS appears faster and south at 42

You literally never post with good news. Never.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Eh 48 is similar to 6z

[aldie 22]

Is it just me?

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

54 looks decent. Jackpot Hunt Valley